St. Mirren vs Livingston Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
Versus
Livingston LIV
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 34 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

St. Mirren host Livingston in Premiership (2nd Phase) at The Smisa Stadium. Domestically, St. Mirren sit 10th in the table while Livingston are 12th. Power ranking favours St. Mirren by 9.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: St. Mirren possess a 9.2-point power advantage and sit higher at 10th in the league than Livingston's 12th.
  • Form: Home form score stands at 14.17 for St. Mirren, edging Livingston's 12.39.
  • Squad: St. Mirren's squad power rates at 22.12, surpassing Livingston's 12.88.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics absent from current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable due to data limitations for the matchup.
  • Market: Projection split: St. Mirren 56.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.1% (Δ+0%) | Livingston 18.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.42
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: L
Aberdeen Rank: W
Falkirk Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: L
Livingston Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: L
Hearts Rank: D
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: D
Rangers Rank: D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
56.31%
Draw
25.11%
Away Livingston
18.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.12
12.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Livingston
Power Score
22.12
12.88
League Position
10
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Livingston

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
23 matches
Livingston LIV Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
9
Draws
9
5
Losses
9
Goals
27
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
27
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:06:30+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
R. Mullen
31 R. Mullen
A. Gogić
13 A. Gogić
M. Freckleton
21 M. Freckleton
L. Donnelly
4 L. Donnelly
M. O'Hara
6 M. O'Hara
A. Campbell
16 A. Campbell
K. Phillips
88 K. Phillips
J. Devaney
8 J. Devaney
D. John
24 D. John
J. Ayunga
11 J. Ayunga
M. Mandron
9 M. Mandron
J. Prior
28 J. Prior
C. Montaño Castillo
26 C. Montaño Castillo
D. Wilson
27 D. Wilson
D. Finlayson
19 D. Finlayson
B. Fati
3 B. Fati
S. Arfield
37 S. Arfield
M. Sylla
24 M. Sylla
C. Kerr
2 C. Kerr
L. Smith
15 L. Smith
J. Nouble
7 J. Nouble
S. May
17 S. May

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity
8016
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Ryan Mullen
Ryan Mullen Goalkeeper
6.79
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
6.82
24
Declan John
Declan John Midfielder
6.88
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.9
11
Jonah Ayunga
Jonah Ayunga Attacker
6.68
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Central Midfield
6.82
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Left Back
6.91
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Centre Back
7.02
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Central Midfield
6.86
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Right Back
6.74
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Central Midfield
6.62

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr Midfielder
6.76
3
Babacar Fati
Babacar Fati Midfielder
6.5
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
6.9
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
6.82
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacking Midfield
6.8
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Right Back
6.76
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Central Midfield
6.79
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Left Back
6.7
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Centre Back
6.55
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Central Midfield
6.58

CONCLUSION

St. Mirren appear well-positioned to capitalize on their power and form edges against a struggling Livingston side. Hosting at The Smisa Stadium amplifies their structural benefits, with league standings reinforcing home dominance. Absent advanced metrics like set pieces and efficiency leave some uncertainty, yet the 9.2-point power gap and superior form score signal a favorable outlook for the 10th-placed hosts. Projections mirror this assessment, highlighting St. Mirren's strong pathway to three points in the Premiership's 2nd Phase.

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