Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Pays de Charleroi Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Pro League
Sporting Charleroi SPC
0 Winner 2
OH Leuven OHL
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
|
Goal
Óscar Gil - 70'
Noë Dussenne - 74'

CONTEXT

The match between Sporting Charleroi and OH Leuven has finished, with OH Leuven securing a surprising 2-0 away victory. After a tightly contested first half that ended in a 0-0 deadlock, the visitors managed to break through and claim all three points in the second period. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, engineered entirely by OH Leuven. Sporting Charleroi entered the contest as the clear favorites with a 51.7% implied win probability, while OH Leuven stood at a mere 22.5%, alongside a 25.8% chance of a draw. Consequently, the away victory completely defied the pre-match market, resulting in a major upset by the underdog. Despite their home defeat, Sporting Charleroi largely dictated the flow of the game, holding 64% possession compared to OH Leuven's 36%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final score aligned with the actual quality of chances created. However, the overall efficiency shift was ultimately in line with baseline projections. The match proceeded evenly from a disciplinary standpoint, as no red cards were issued to impact either team's tactical approach.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: OH Leuven showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Vergoote
J. Vergoote
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. Tiesters
M. Tiesters
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
A. Letellier
A. Letellier
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. Seeldraeyers
M. Seeldraeyers
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Sporting Charleroi H. Cornelis
H. Cornelis
VS
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
1.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dender Rank: 61 D
Club Brugge Rank: 83 L
Westerlo Rank: 69 L
Gent Rank: 72 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: 69 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Dender Rank: 62 W
Gent Rank: 72 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 8 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Charleroi
51.7%
Draw
25.79%
Away OH Leuven
22.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.88
65.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Charleroi
OH Leuven
Power Score
69.88
65.81
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
183
276

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Charleroi OH Leuven

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy OH Leuven
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.30
31.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.25
34.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Charleroi +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
OH Leuven -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
OH Leuven
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Charleroi
vs
OH Leuven
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Charleroi OH Leuven
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi OH Leuven
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Sporting Charleroi
OH Leuven
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Charleroi SPC Home
13 matches
OH Leuven OHL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
6
Draws
6
5
Losses
2
Goals
12
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
12
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:05:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
L. Blum
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 (C) A. Ousou
C. keita
Substitution
France
95 C. keita
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
Y. Titraoui
Algeria
22 Y. Titraoui
E. Camara
Substitution
France
5 E. Camara
P. Pflücke
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
J. Romsaas
Norway
8 J. Romsaas
P. Guiagon
Ivory Coast
10 P. Guiagon
A. Scheidler
Substitution
France
21 A. Scheidler
M. Prévôt
France
16 M. Prévôt
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
N. Dussenne
Substitution
Belgium
3 N. Dussenne
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 (C) E. Pletinckx
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
B. Verstraete
Substitution
Belgium
4 B. Verstraete
Ł. Łakomy
Substitution
Poland
24 Ł. Łakomy
Ó. Gil Regaño
Spain
27 Ó. Gil Regaño
H. Teklab
Substitution
Germany
14 H. Teklab
Y. Maziz
France
10 Y. Maziz
C. Ikwuemesi
Substitution
Nigeria
19 C. Ikwuemesi

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
Stade du Pays de Charleroi
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jasper Vergoote
Martijn Tiesters
Anthony Letellier
Michele Seeldraeyers

Statistics

Possession
SPC
60%
OHL
40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 5
59 Dangerous attacks 25
64 Possession 36
10 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 11
14 Successful Headers 13
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
18 Throwins 26
86 Ball Safe 75
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 5
17 Dribble Attempts 12
10 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Assists 1
7 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

98 Attacks 78
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 69
361 Successful Passes 175
16 Key Passes 8
51 Long Passes 62
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
437 Passes 252
29 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

13 Interceptions 13
10 Tackles 13
3 Saves 4

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 11
10 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

6 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.7
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou (C) Defender
7.16
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
6.52
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
6.97
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
6.73
9
Filip Szymczak
Filip Szymczak
Attacker83'
6.49
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.95
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier
Attacker83'
6.83
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas Midfielder
6.95
10
Parfait Guiagon
Parfait Guiagon Midfielder
7.23
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
7.84
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui Midfielder
7.31
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker
6.79
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin
Attacker65'
6.48
Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

16
Maxence Prévot
Maxence Prévot Goalkeeper
7.77
3
Noë Dussenne
Noë Dussenne Defender
7.74
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami
Defender80'
6.65
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx (C) Defender
7.32
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
7.42
4
Birger Verstraete
Birger Verstraete Midfielder
6.87
48
Bryang Kayo
Bryang Kayo
Midfielder80'
6.56
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy Midfielder
6.79
6
Wouter George
Wouter George
Midfielder46'
6.41
27
Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil Midfielder
7.03
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Midfielder
6.68
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
7.01
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Attacker
6.54
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden
Attacker46'
6.94
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi Attacker
6.74
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Sory Kaba → Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
8th Substitution
Event
Antoine Bernier → Étienne Camara
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Filip Szymczak → Check Keita
7th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Bryang Kayo → Birger Verstraete
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Takuma Ominami → Noë Dussenne
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Noë Dussenne
Header / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Óscar Gil
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Antoine Colassin → Aurélien Scheidler
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Parfait Guiagon
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
46'
Event
Wouter George → Lukasz Lakomy
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Thibaud Verlinden → Henok Teklab
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Óscar Gil
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: OH Leuven exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League View all league clusters