Sporting Braga vs Sporting CP Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Braga Sun, 8 Mar - 12:13 AM
Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga SBR
2 – 2
Sporting CP SCP
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 12:13 AM
Ricardo Horta - 34'
Rodrigo Zalazar - 90+6' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Gonçalo Inácio - 22'
Luis Suárez - 45+2' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sporting Braga 2–2 Sporting CP. The match ended in a draw. Sporting CP showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 66%–34%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting CP showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Figueiredo Pires
N. Figueiredo Pires
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
F. Costa Veríssimo
F. Costa Veríssimo
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Bertolo Nogueira
M. Bertolo Nogueira
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
P. Duarte Brás
P. Duarte Brás
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
VS
Sporting CP R. Gomes Borges
R. Gomes Borges
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.53
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: W
AVS Rank: W
Alverca Rank: W
Tondela Rank: W
Estrela Amadora Rank: D
Benfica Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: D
Nacional Rank: W
Arouca Rank: W
Casa Pia Rank: W
Gil Vicente Rank: D
Rio Ave Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 5 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Braga
26.03%
Draw
26.77%
Away Sporting CP
47.2%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sporting Braga
-0.03%
Draw
-0.83%
Sporting CP
+0.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.33
82.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Braga
Sporting CP
Power Score
61.33
82.67
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting CP — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Braga Sporting CP

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting CP

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting CP
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.74
43.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.82
16.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Braga -2.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting CP +2.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Braga
Sporting CP
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Braga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting CP
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Braga Sporting CP
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Braga Sporting CP
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Braga
Sporting CP
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Braga SBR Home
11 matches
Sporting CP SCP Away
Match Record
1
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
1
Goals
11
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
11
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:13:25+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 12:13 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Capacity
30286
Attendance
22834
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nuno Filipe Figueiredo Pires
Fábio José Costa Veríssimo
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira
Paulo Ricardo Duarte Brás

Statistics

Possession
SBR
61%
SCP
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 6
21 Dangerous attacks 18
66 Possession 34
6 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

12 Throwins 14
7 Successful Headers 11
15 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Successful Dribbles 7
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
4 Goal Attempts 11
6 Goal Kicks 5
1 Assists 1
52 Ball Safe 50
1 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

108 Attacks 55
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 20
596 Successful Passes 288
659 Passes 344
90 Successful Passes Percentage 84
38 Long Passes 41
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

12 Tackles 10
9 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 1

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
16 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

16 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Rodrigo Zalazar
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90+6'
Event
Mario Dorgeles → Víctor Gómez
8th Substitution
88'
81'
Event
Eduardo Quaresma → Geny Catamo
7th Substitution
Event
Fran Navarro → Pau Víctor
6th Substitution
78'
73'
Event
Luís Guilherme → Pedro Gonçalves
4th Substitution
73'
Event
João Simões → Hidemasa Morita
5th Substitution
Event
Gorby → João Moutinho
3rd Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Maxi Araújo
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Gabri Martínez → Diego Rodrigues
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Gabriel Moscardo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
58'
Event
Ousmane Diomande
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Moscardo → Paulo Oliveira
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Luis Suárez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Paulo Oliveira
Persistent fouling / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
38'
Event
Hidemasa Morita
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ricardo Horta
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
22'
Event
Gonçalo Inácio
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Sporting Braga! Gabri Martínez is fouled inside the box.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Gabri Martínez of Sporting Braga has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Gonçalo Inácio of Sporting Lisbon has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
90
Update Update
Trincão from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between Sporting Braga and Sporting Lisbon.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Sporting Braga 2, Sporting Lisbon 2. Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga successfully converts the penalty, striking the ball with his right foot into the bottom right corner.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga after Ousmane Diomande gave it away.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Mario Dorgeles comes on to replace Víctor Gómez.
87
Attempt Attempt
Florian Grillitsch from Sporting Braga had a great opportunity but couldn't convert it, firing a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went astray.
86
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Maxi Araújo from Sporting Lisbon takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal following a corner kick.
86
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sporting Lisbon after Gustaf Lagerbielke allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
João Simões from Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Fran Navarro from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Eduardo Quaresma from Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ousmane Diomande from Sporting Lisbon attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area. However, goalkeeper Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Luis Guilherme, who delivered a precise cross.
82
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sporting Lisbon after Gabriel Moscardo allowed the ball to go out of play.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Eduardo Quaresma comes on to replace Geny Catamo.
79
Update Update
Fouled by Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga.
79
Update Update
Maxi Araújo of Sporting Lisbon earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Fran Navarro replaces Pau Víctor.
78
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The chance was set up by Ricardo Horta, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga after Morten Hjulmand gave it away.
77
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rodrigo Zalazar of Sporting Braga takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Gustaf Lagerbielke.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga after a foul by Iván Fresneda.
75
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Víctor Gómez of Sporting Braga takes a challenging shot with his right foot from the right side, but Rui Silva from Sporting Lisbon makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Rodrigo Zalazar, who delivered a cross.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga after Luis Suárez allowed it to go out.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: João Simões replaces Hidemasa Morita.
70
Update Update
Offside call against Sporting Braga. Gabriel Moscardo has been flagged for being offside.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maxi Araújo of Sporting Lisbon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
69
Update Update
Maxi Araújo committed a foul against Sporting Lisbon.
69
Update Update
Víctor Gómez from Sporting Braga was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Jean-Baptiste Gorby replaces João Moutinho.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Gabri Martínez replaces Diego Rodrigues.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Geny Catamo.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! João Moutinho from Sporting Braga took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Pau Víctor.
64
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds. Iván Fresneda of Sporting Lisbon takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper, Lukás Hornícek, who is positioned centrally in the goal. The assist came from Hidemasa Morita, who set it up with a header.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
63
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
63
Update Update
Gabriel Moscardo from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustaf Lagerbielke from Sporting Braga has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
61
Update Update
Gustaf Lagerbielke from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
61
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
58
Update Update
Pau Víctor from Sporting Braga has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
58
Update Update
Ousmane Diomande from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ousmane Diomande of Sporting Lisbon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga, following a concession by Iván Fresneda.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Hidemasa Morita of Sporting Lisbon attempted a right-footed shot from over 40 yards on the left side, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Luis Suárez after a quick counterattack.
50
Update Update
Florian Grillitsch from Sporting Braga was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Lisbon after Florian Grillitsch allowed the ball to go out.
48
Update Update
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Gabriel Moscardo of Sporting Braga headed the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Diego Rodrigues, who delivered a cross.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga after Ousmane Diomande allowed the ball to go out.
47
Update Update
Pau Víctor from Sporting Braga has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Update Update
Hidemasa Morita from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga, following a foul by Iván Fresneda.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sporting Braga 1, Sporting Lisbon 2. Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon steps up to take the penalty and finds the back of the net with a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner.
45
Update Update
Morten Hjulmand of Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Morten Hjulmand from Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Gabriel Moscardo replaces Paulo Oliveira.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Sporting Braga 1, Sporting Lisbon 2.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Gabriel Moscardo replaces Paulo Oliveira.
44
Update Update
Bright Arrey-Mbi of Sporting Braga has given away a penalty due to a handball in the box.
43
Update Update
Paulo Oliveira from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
43
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
42
Update Update
Trincão from Sporting Lisbon earned a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
João Moutinho from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon earned a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Maxi Araújo from Sporting Lisbon was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Florian Grillitsch from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paulo Oliveira from Sporting Braga has been shown a yellow card.
40
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Paulo Oliveira from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Hidemasa Morita from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Hidemasa Morita from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hidemasa Morita of Sporting Lisbon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Sporting Braga 1, Sporting Lisbon 1. Ricardo Horta scores for Sporting Braga with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top left corner. The assist came from Rodrigo Zalazar.
33
Update Update
Trincão from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Florian Grillitsch from Sporting Braga was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Víctor Gómez from Sporting Braga earned a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Iván Fresneda from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
27
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga.
26
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Pote from Sporting Lisbon took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Luis Suárez.
24
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort is underway. Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga makes a save, diving to his left. The assist came from Trincão, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Morten Hjulmand.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Lisbon after Víctor Gómez allowed the ball to go out.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sporting Braga 0, Sporting Lisbon 1. Gonçalo Inácio scores for Sporting Lisbon with a header from the center of the box into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Pote, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
20
Update Update
Florian Grillitsch from Sporting Braga was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
20
Update Update
Ousmane Diomande from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Gustaf Lagerbielke from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Pote from Sporting Lisbon earned a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity gone begging! Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Luis Suárez.
15
Update Update
Offside call against Sporting Lisbon. Pote has been caught in an offside position.
13
Update Update
Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
11
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left after the corner kick.
11
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is denied. Ousmane Diomande from Sporting Lisbon heads the ball from the middle of the area, but his shot is blocked. The cross was delivered by Pote.
11
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sporting Lisbon after Diego Rodrigues allowed the ball to go out of play.
11
Update Update
The attempt is denied. Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets intercepted. The assist came from Morten Hjulmand.
10
Update Update
Rodrigo Zalazar from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Iván Fresneda from Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Pau Víctor commits a handball for Sporting Braga.
7
Update Update
Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Bright Arrey-Mbi from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Maxi Araújo committed a foul against Sporting Lisbon.
4
Update Update
Víctor Gómez from Sporting Braga was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
3
Update Update
Gonçalo Inácio from Sporting Lisbon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting CP exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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