Spezia vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
0 Winner 2
Mantova MAN
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Davide Bragantini - 32'
Nicolò Buso - 72'

CONTEXT

The match between Spezia and Mantova is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-2 to the visitors. Mantova took the lead before half-time and added a second goal in the second period to complete a comfortable away victory. Pre-match expectations had positioned Spezia as narrow favorites at 39.8 percent, with the draw rated at 29.3 percent and an away win at 31 percent. The result therefore marked a significant deviation in Mantova’s favor, as the away team defied those forecasts to produce a clear win. Possession was relatively even but leaned toward the visitors, who held 56 percent of the ball compared with Spezia’s 44 percent. No expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the final outcome, and the result did not align with pre-match projections. There were no red cards or other disruptive events to alter the flow of play. Overall Mantova, listed as the stronger side coming into the fixture, converted their slight edge in territory into a decisive victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Niedda
A. Niedda
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Grasso
G. Grasso
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
J. Sacchi
J. Sacchi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Calzavara
A. Calzavara
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
VS
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Empoli Rank: D
Modena Rank: L
Monza Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Modena Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Empoli Rank: D
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Palermo Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
39.77%
Draw
29.27%
Away Mantova
30.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Spezia
+39.55%
Draw
+27.35%
Mantova
-66.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.52
23.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Mantova
Power Score
20.52
23.69
League Position
20
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Mantova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.52
26.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.88
33.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spezia +0.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Mantova -0.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Mantova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spezia Mantova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spezia Mantova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Mantova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spezia
vs
Mantova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spezia Mantova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spezia 0.22
Mantova 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spezia Mantova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spezia 0.05
Mantova 0.00
Spezia
Mantova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPE had peak pressure around 66'.
  • SPE started the game with stronger pressure.
SPE Pressure MAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPE reached the top pressure at 66' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
7 matches
Mantova MAN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
0
Goals
6
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
6
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:08:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Mascardi
Substitution
Italy
12 D. Mascardi
A. Matějů
Czech Republic
37 A. Matějů
M. Ruggero
Italy
4 M. Ruggero
P. Hristov
Bulgaria
55 P. Hristov
P. Beruatto
Italy
11 P. Beruatto
C. Comotto
Substitution
Italy
34 C. Comotto
A. Romano
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
F. Bandinelli
Italy
25 F. Bandinelli
G. Aurelio
Substitution
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
G. Di Serio
Substitution
Italy
20 G. Di Serio
G. Artistico
Substitution
Italy
9 G. Artistico
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Castellini
Italy
27 A. Castellini
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
R. Kouda
Italy
80 R. Kouda
S. Trimboli
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
T. Maggioni
Italy
96 T. Maggioni
F. Ruocco
Substitution
Italy
19 F. Ruocco
D. Bragantini
Substitution
Italy
30 D. Bragantini
D. Mensah
Substitution
Ghana
7 D. Mensah

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity
10336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Niedda
Gianluca Grasso
Juan Luca Sacchi
Andrea Calzavara

Statistics

Possession
SPE
47%
MAN
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 8
55 Dangerous attacks 41
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 0
12 Free kicks 21
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
4 Goal Kicks 10
70 Ball Safe 76
13 Dribble Attempts 16
22 Throwins 19
8 Successful Dribbles 7
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
9 Goal Attempts 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

101 Attacks 97
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

66 Successful Passes Percentage 75
76 Long Passes 55
200 Successful Passes 307
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
304 Passes 412
21 Successful Long Passes 16
9 Key Passes 8

Defensive

19 Tackles 14
10 Interceptions 6
2 Saves 3

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 7
9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
18 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
22
Boris Radunović
Boris Radunović
Goalkeeper46'
4
Marco Ruggero
Marco Ruggero Defender
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Defender
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Defender
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Defender
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Midfielder
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola
Defender46'
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Midfielder
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali
Defender56'
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Attacker
99
Vanja Vlahović
Vanja Vlahović
Attacker74'
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Attacker
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula
Attacker46'
Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
7
Davis Mensah
Davis Mensah Attacker
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso
Attacker26'
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Attacker
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras
Attacker71'
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini Attacker
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
79'
Event
Rachid Kouda
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Vanja Vlahović  → Gabriele Artistico
8th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Nicolò Buso
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Nicolò Buso → Davide Bragantini
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Tommaso Marras → Francesco Ruocco
7th Substitution
Event
Luca Vignali → Christian Comotto
5th Substitution
56'
Event
Filippo Bandinelli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
49'
Event
Boris Radunović → Diego Mascardi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Gianluca Lapadula → Giuseppe Di Serio
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Leonardo Sernicola → Giuseppe Aurelio
4th Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Simone Trimboli
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Davide Bragantini
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
Event
Ali Dembélé
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Leonardo Mancuso → Davis Mensah
1st Substitution
Event
Alessandro Romano
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
13'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Mantova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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