Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Today - 6:45 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
Versus
Bristol City BSC
KICKOFF : Today - 6:45 PM
Round 44 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Southampton host Bristol City in Championship (Regular Season) at St. Mary's Stadium. Domestically, Southampton sit 4th in the table while Bristol City are 10th. Power ranking favours Southampton by 21.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Southampton possess a 21.1-point power score advantage over Bristol City, marking them as the stronger team.
  • Form: Southampton's form score stands at 44.28, well ahead of Bristol City's 19.5.
  • Squad: Southampton in 4th place field a higher-caliber squad than 10th-placed Bristol City.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with no xG data for either side.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Southampton 66.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.6% (Δ+0%) | Bristol City 12% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Bristol City R. Hodgson
R. Hodgson
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Derby County Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Norwich City Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
66.33%
Draw
21.63%
Away Bristol City
12.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
43.85
22.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Bristol City
Power Score
43.85
22.74
League Position
4
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Bristol City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
10 matches
Bristol City BSC Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
0
Draws
0
7
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
8
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:04:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Stephens
England
5 J. Stephens
R. Manning
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
C. Jander
Germany
20 C. Jander
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
K. Matsuki
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
F. Azaz
England
10 F. Azaz
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
Brazil
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
C. Larin
Canada
9 C. Larin
R. Vítek
Czech Republic
23 R. Vítek
C. Pring
England
3 C. Pring
V. Borges dos Santos Neto
Brazil
21 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
N. Eile
Sweden
38 N. Eile
R. McCrorie
Scotland
2 R. McCrorie
S. Morsy
Egypt
40 S. Morsy
A. Randell
England
4 A. Randell
J. Knight
Republic of Ireland
12 J. Knight
S. Twine
England
10 S. Twine
M. Sykes
Northern Ireland
17 M. Sykes
E. Riis Jakobsen
Denmark
18 E. Riis Jakobsen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 44 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity
32384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Leach
Samuel Allison
Elliot Bell
Andrew Fox

Lineup

Referee : Elliot Bell

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.92
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
7.21
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Defender
6.93
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.26
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
7.01
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
7.14
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Midfielder
7.31
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Midfielder
6.9
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
7
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Midfielder
6.88
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
6.71
Referee : Elliot Bell

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Defender
6.87
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring Defender
6.58
21
Neto Borges
Neto Borges Defender
6.45
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
6.8
4
Adam Randell
Adam Randell Midfielder
6.93
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Midfielder
7.11
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight Midfielder
6.77
17
Mark Sykes
Mark Sykes Midfielder
6.72
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
6.73
18
Emil Riis
Emil Riis Attacker
6.74

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Southampton holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Southampton a 21.1-point edge. External projection is Southampton 65%, draw 21.9%, and Bristol City 13.1%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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