Sochi vs Krasnodar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht Sat, 14 Mar - 10:45 AM
Premier League
Sochi Sochi
1 Winner 2
Krasnodar KRA
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 10:45 AM
Mikhail Ignatov - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Eduard Spertsyan - 5', 90+5' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Sochi and Krasnodar has officially finished, with Krasnodar securing a 2-1 victory. The visitors established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before successfully closing out the full-time result. Going into the game, Krasnodar was identified as the stronger team, and their victory ultimately aligned with the pre-match market expectations. Despite this market alignment, there was a significant deviation level recorded for Krasnodar, showing a 100% deviation from baseline data projections. On the pitch, the visitors dictated the tempo and controlled the match, commanding a substantial 66% of the possession while restricting Sochi to just 34%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams in this fixture, it is not possible to evaluate whether the final outcome was consistent with underlying xG metrics. The match's efficiency shift was completely in line with the final result. Krasnodar posted a strong positive efficiency rating of 1.8981, directly mirroring Sochi's negative mark of -1.8981. Furthermore, the game flowed without any major disciplinary disruptions. Neither side received a red card, allowing Krasnodar's possession-heavy tactical approach to secure the win unobstructed.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krasnodar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Anopa
A. Anopa
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
M. Gavrilin
M. Gavrilin
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
M. Ivanov
M. Ivanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
A. Prokopov
A. Prokopov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.55
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
VS
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
0.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 49 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 73 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 D
Akron Rank: 57 L
Rostov Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: 58 L
Rostov Rank: 62 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 74 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 73 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sochi
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krasnodar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.64
74.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sochi
Krasnodar
Power Score
43.64
74.92
League Position
16
1
Global Rank
789
95

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sochi Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.03
41.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.89
21.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sochi -2.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Krasnodar +2.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Krasnodar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sochi Krasnodar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sochi Krasnodar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Krasnodar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sochi Sochi Home
9 matches
Krasnodar KRA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
9
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:40:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
K. Zaika
Substitution
Russia
27 (C) K. Zaika
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
A. Kovalenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
G. Martins Furtado dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
23 G. Martins Furtado dos Santos
Z. Fedorov
Substitution
Russia
9 Z. Fedorov
M. Kramarič
Slovenia
10 M. Kramarič
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
V. Tormena de Farias
Brazil
3 V. Tormena de Farias
V. Paltsev
Russia
17 V. Paltsev
D. Soares Gomes
Brazil
66 D. Soares Gomes
N. Krivtsov
Substitution
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
J. Santos Sa
Substitution
Brazil
7 J. Santos Sa
E. Spertsyan
Substitution
Armenia
10 (C) E. Spertsyan
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 10:45 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht
Capacity
47659
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anton Anopa
Maksim Gavrilin
Mikhail Ivanov
Andrey Prokopov

Statistics

Possession
Sochi
38%
KRA
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 7
43 Dangerous attacks 53
34 Possession 66
4 Corners 10
14 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Injuries 5
4 Goal Attempts 17
69 Ball Safe 72
5 Substitutions 4
22 Throwins 14
13 Successful Headers 24
9 Goal Kicks 5
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
6 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Assists 1
11 Dribble Attempts 8
0 Penalties 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
79 Attacks 90

Possession

15 Successful Long Passes 24
55 Long Passes 56
241 Passes 476
62 Successful Passes Percentage 78
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
149 Successful Passes 370

Defensive

9 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 11
8 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
8.28
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
6.83
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
6.86
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
6.7
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
6.56
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov
Midfielder71'
7.16
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Midfielder
6.14
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Midfielder
6.3
29
Roman Ezhov
Roman Ezhov
Midfielder81'
6.23
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika (C) Midfielder
6.9
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov
Defender83'
6.26
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
6.49
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder71'
6.87
10
Martin Kramaric
Martin Kramaric Attacker
6.76
23
Gustavo Furtado
Gustavo Furtado Attacker
6.54
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Midfielder71'
5.92
Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
6.48
3
Vítor Tormena
Vítor Tormena Defender
7.1
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
6.45
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
6.93
17
Valentin Paltsev
Valentin Paltsev Defender
7.41
7
Victor Sá
Victor Sá Midfielder
6.4
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker73'
6.61
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan (C) Midfielder
2
8.72
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini
Midfielder90+7'
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
7.63
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González
Defender86'
66
Douglas Augusto
Douglas Augusto Midfielder
7.58
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
6.73
53
Aleksandr Chernikov
Aleksandr Chernikov
Midfielder74'
7.13
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker
7.07

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Kevin Lenini → Eduard Spertsyan
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Eduard Spertsyan
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+3'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Penalty awarded
Event
Mikhail Ignatov
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
86'
Event
Giovanni González → João Batxi
8th Substitution
Event
Sergey Volkov → Kirill Zaika
7th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Roman Ezhov → A. Kovalenko
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Marcelo Alves
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
74'
Event
Aleksandr Chernikov → Nikita Krivtsov
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → Victor Sá
4th Substitution
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Zakhar Fedorov
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Mikhail Ignatov → Maksim Mukhin
1st Substitution
71'
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev → Gustavo Furtado
2nd Substitution
71'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kirill Zaika
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
35'
24'
Event
Valentin Paltsev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
7'
Event
Lucas Olaza
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'
Event
Eduard Spertsyan
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Krasnodar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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