Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Sun, 8 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga
Sevilla SEV
1 – 1
Rayo Vallecano RAY
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 5:30 PM
Akor Adams - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Alfonso Espino - 50'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Sevilla 0–1 Rayo Vallecano. The result saw Rayo Vallecano take the points. Rayo Vallecano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rayo Vallecano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Muñíz Ruiz
A. Muñíz Ruiz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
D. Sánchez Rojo
D. Sánchez Rojo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
F. Blanco Rodríguez
F. Blanco Rodríguez
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
?. Juncal Moreira
?. Juncal Moreira
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.05
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Sevilla F. Martínez Rodríguez
F. Martínez Rodríguez
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Getafe Rank: W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: D
Girona Rank: D
Mallorca Rank: L
Athletic Club Rank: W
Elche Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mallorca Rank: W
Getafe Rank: D
Elche Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: D
Espanyol Rank: L
Valencia Rank: D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 7 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sevilla
37.58%
Draw
30.8%
Away Rayo Vallecano
31.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
38.27
38.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
38.27
38.27
League Position
14
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sevilla Rayo Vallecano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.07
17.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.76
31.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sevilla +1.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Rayo Vallecano -1.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sevilla ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sevilla SEV Home
9 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
4
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
4
Goals
12
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
12
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:21:09+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Capacity
42714
Attendance
37178
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz
Diego Sánchez Rojo
Fabián Blanco Rodríguez
Álvaro Juncal Moreira

Statistics

Possession
SEV
48%
RAY
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 5
41 Dangerous attacks 26
42 Possession 58
6 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
49 Ball Safe 64
5 Goal Kicks 5
20 Throwins 27
24 Dribble Attempts 12
12 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 1
30 Successful Headers 11
4 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Attempts 3
3 Injuries 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 102

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 82
284 Passes 396
32 Successful Long Passes 10
5 Key Passes 6
210 Successful Passes 323
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 22
61 Long Passes 45

Defensive

16 Tackles 21
1 Saves 1
11 Interceptions 6
75 Duels Won 47

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
12 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

13 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Pedro Díaz → Isi Palazón
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Alexandre Zurawski → Fran Pérez
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Andrei Rațiu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Batista Mendy → Djibril Sow
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Chidera Ejuke → Alexis Sánchez
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Isaac Romero → Akor Adams
6th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Álvaro García → Gerard Gumbau
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Unai López → Carlos Martín
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Florian Lejeune
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
José Ángel Carmona → César Azpilicueta
2nd Substitution
59'
59'
Event
Fran Pérez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Ilias Akhomach → Jorge de Frutos
1st Substitution
50'
Event
Alfonso Espino
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Akor Adams
Header / 1st Goal
13'
Event
Nemanja Gudelj
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Kike Salas allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Nobel Mendy from Rayo Vallecano took a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it sailed over the bar. The assist came from Florian Lejeune.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
88
Update Update
Pacha Espino from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Update Update
Batista Mendy from Sevilla committed a foul.
87
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sevilla after Andrei Ratiu allowed the ball to go out.
87
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and a considerable distance on the left, but it's blocked.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Pedro Díaz comes on to replace Isi Palazón.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Alemão comes on to replace Fran Pérez.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrei Ratiu of Rayo Vallecano has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
85
Update Update
Andrei Ratiu from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Chidera Ejuke from Sevilla earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Batista Mendy is coming on to replace Djibril Sow.
83
Update Update
Isaac Romero from Sevilla earned a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Isaac Romero from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left after a free kick.
79
Update Update
Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Lucien Agoumé from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
73
Update Update
Lucien Agoumé from Sevilla committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Florian Lejeune of Rayo Vallecano was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Chidera Ejuke from Sevilla commits a handball.
70
Update Update
Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
69
Update Update
Kike Salas from Sevilla committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Álvaro García replaces Gerard Gumbau.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Unai López replaces Carlos Martín.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Chidera Ejuke is coming on to replace Alexis Sánchez.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Isaac Romero replaces Akor Adams.
66
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
66
Update Update
Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sevilla after Pacha Espino allowed the ball to go out.
66
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Kike Salas from Sevilla heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped in the left corner.
66
Update Update
A header attempt from Alexis Sánchez for Sevilla is deflected away after he tries to score from the right side of the six-yard box.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Florian Lejeune of Rayo Vallecano has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
64
Update Update
Fouled by Florian Lejeune - Rayo Vallecano. nnRephrased: Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Oso - Sevilla has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fran Pérez of Rayo Vallecano has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
59
Update Update
Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
59
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: José Ángel Carmona comes on to replace César Azpilicueta due to an injury.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Ilias Akhomach comes on to replace Jorge de Frutos.
57
Update Update
Oso - Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in their defensive half.
57
Update Update
Carlos Martín from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
56
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
55
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to César Azpilicueta of Sevilla.
54
Update Update
Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
54
Update Update
César Azpilicueta committed a foul against a Sevilla player.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Sevilla 1, Rayo Vallecano 1. Pacha Espino scores for Rayo Vallecano with a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist came from Fran Pérez.
49
Update Update
Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
49
Update Update
Akor Adams from Sevilla committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Lucien Agoumé from Sevilla committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Nobel Mendy from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
45
Update Update
Akor Adams from Sevilla committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Sevilla leading Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Akor Adams from Sevilla attempted a long-range shot with his right foot from the right side, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Alexis Sánchez during a quick counter-attack.
45
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Akor Adams from Sevilla.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Sevilla leading Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sevilla after Isi Palazón allowed the ball to go out.
38
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Florian Lejeune, who delivered a cross.
34
Update Update
Carlos Martín from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Carlos Martín from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Óscar Valentín from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Tanguy Nianzou from Sevilla committed a foul.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sevilla, following a defensive play by Óscar Valentín.
26
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
25
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla.
24
Update Update
Gerard Gumbau from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Carlos Martín from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Oso - Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in their defensive half.
20
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Akor Adams from Sevilla took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Tanguy Nianzou.
19
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Augusto Batalla of Rayo Vallecano.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alexis Sánchez from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
18
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sevilla after Pacha Espino allowed the ball to go out.
17
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Akor Adams from Sevilla took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Alexis Sánchez.
17
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sevilla after Florian Lejeune allowed the ball to go out.
17
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Sevilla after Andrei Ratiu allowed the ball to go out of play.
17
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tanguy Nianzou from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
16
Update Update
César Azpilicueta from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez from Sevilla committed a handball.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sevilla takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Rayo Vallecano. Akor Adams finds the back of the net with a header from close range, directing it into the left corner. The assist comes from César Azpilicueta, who delivered a precise cross.
12
Update Update
Gerard Gumbau of Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Alexis Sánchez committed a foul against Sevilla.
12
Update Update
Óscar Valentín from Rayo Vallecano was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Kike Salas allowed the ball to go out.
8
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
7
Update Update
Pacha Espino of Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
César Azpilicueta committed a foul against a Sevilla player.
4
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
3
Update Update
Alexis Sánchez of Sevilla earned a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Gerard Gumbau from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
2
Update Update
Nemanja Gudelj from Sevilla committed a foul.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nemanja Gudelj of Sevilla has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
2
Update Update
Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick on the left side of the field.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rayo Vallecano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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