SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Europa-Park Stadion Sat, 7 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
SC Freiburg SCF
3 – 3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
Vincenzo Grifo - 34'
Yuito Suzuki - 43'
Matthias Ginter - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Christian Kofane - 37'
Alejandro Grimaldo - 45+3'
Martin Terrier - 52'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. SC Freiburg 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The match ended in a draw. Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Brand
B. Brand
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. Achmüller
M. Achmüller
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
R. Kampka
R. Kampka
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
T. Stein
T. Stein
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
VS
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: W
FC Augsburg Rank: D
RB Leipzig Rank: L
Hamburger SV Rank: W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: W
FC Köln Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SC Freiburg
32.52%
Draw
27.05%
Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen
40.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.33
58.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Power Score
45.33
58.67
League Position
8
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SC Freiburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.40
38.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.56
52.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SC Freiburg +1.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen -1.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SC Freiburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SC Freiburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SC Freiburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SC Freiburg SCF Home
11 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Away
Match Record
3
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
3
Goals
17
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
17
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:05:55+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Europa-Park Stadion
Capacity
34700
Attendance
34100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Benjamin Brand
Marco Achmüller
Robert Kampka
Thomas Stein

Statistics

Possession
SCF
48%
B04
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 4
10 Shots 9
63 Dangerous attacks 61
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

62 Ball Safe 62
11 Goal Kicks 10
13 Successful Headers 17
12 Successful Dribbles 7
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
18 Dribble Attempts 14
14 Goal Attempts 12
11 Throwins 14
3 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
94 Attacks 98

Possession

409 Successful Passes 464
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
464 Passes 527
35 Long Passes 51
17 Key Passes 15
88 Successful Passes Percentage 88
12 Successful Long Passes 25

Defensive

7 Interceptions 10
17 Tackles 11
2 Saves 6

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 12
11 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

7 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christian Günter
6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Var
90'
Event
Matthias Ginter
Header / 6th Goal
86'
82'
Event
Tim Oermann → Ernest Poku
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Exequiel Palacios → Ezequiel Fernández
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Robert Andrich
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Lucas Höler → Johan Manzambi
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Cyriaque Irié → Niklas Beste
6th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Montrell Culbreath → Martin Terrier
4th Substitution
Event
Cyriaque Irié
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
66'
Event
Malik Tillman → Ibrahim Maza
3rd Substitution
Event
Derry Scherhant → Vincenzo Grifo
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Jordy Makengo → Christian Günter
1st Substitution
62'
52'
Event
Martin Terrier
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
51'
51'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Alejandro Grimaldo
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Yuito Suzuki
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
43'
37'
Event
Christian Kofane
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Vincenzo Grifo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
34'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Matthias Ginter of SC Freiburg headed the ball from the center of the box but failed to hit the target. The assist came from Derry Scherhant, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alejandro Grimaldo of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. He was set up by Jarell Quansah during a quick counterattack.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christian Günter from SC Freiburg has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 3-3 between SC Freiburg and Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to SC Freiburg after Jarell Quansah allowed the ball to go out.
89
Update Update
Offside call against SC Freiburg. Matthias Ginter has been flagged for being offside.
89
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Maximilian Eggestein from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now SC Freiburg 3, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3. Matthias Ginter scores with a header from close range right into the middle of the net. The assist came from Derry Scherhant, who delivered a precise cross.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Exequiel Palacios comes on to replace Ezequiél Fernández.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jarell Quansah of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Tim Oermann comes on to replace Ernest Poku.
78
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cyriaque Irié of SC Freiburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
78
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cyriaque Irié of SC Freiburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
78
Update Update
Cyriaque Irié from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
76
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yuito Suzuki from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Igor Matanovic.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Lucas Höler comes on to replace Johan Manzambi.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Montrell Culbreath is coming on to replace Martin Terrier.
75
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Bruno Ogbus from SC Freiburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the left.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Cyriaque Irié comes on to replace Niklas Beste.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after Aleix García allowed the ball to go out of play.
73
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Derry Scherhant from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup for the shot came from Maximilian Eggestein.
72
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Niklas Beste from SC Freiburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. Janis Blaswich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen makes a great save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist comes from Philipp Treu.
71
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Maximilian Eggestein.
70
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Ernest Poku from Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Derry Scherhant of SC Freiburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
69
Update Update
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Derry Scherhant from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Malik Tillman comes on to replace Ibrahim Maza.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Derry Scherhant replaces Vincenzo Grifo.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Jordy Makengo comes on to replace Christian Günter.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went just to the left of the goal. The assist came from Yuito Suzuki.
56
Update Update
Martin Terrier from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Matthias Ginter from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempts a header from close range, but it's successfully stopped.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! SC Freiburg 2, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3. Martin Terrier scores for Bayer 04 Leverkusen with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it into the left corner. The assist comes from Christian Kofane after a swift counterattack.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alejandro Grimaldo of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
51
Update Update
Philipp Treu from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ibrahim Maza of Bayer 04 Leverkusen fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Ernest Poku of Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it is blocked. The assist came from Aleix García.
47
Update Update
Offside call against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Christian Kofane has been flagged for being in an offside position.
46
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Christian Günter from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alejandro Grimaldo of Bayer 04 Leverkusen fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
45
Update Update
Niklas Beste from SC Freiburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Goal! SC Freiburg takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Yuito Suzuki found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the left corner. The assist came from Philipp Treu, who delivered a precise cross.
45
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg had a header from close range following a corner kick but couldn't find the target.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after Janis Blaswich allowed the ball to go out.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Yuito Suzuki from SC Freiburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Janis Blaswich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen makes a great save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Maximilian Eggestein.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yuito Suzuki from SC Freiburg committed a handball.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with a score of SC Freiburg 2, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 2-2 between SC Freiburg and Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bruno Ogbus from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
41
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Vincenzo Grifo from SC Freiburg heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
41
Update Update
Ezequiél Fernández from Bayer 04 Leverkusen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
38
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Philipp Treu from SC Freiburg earned a free kick in an offensive position.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now SC Freiburg 1, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has scored with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! SC Freiburg takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Vincenzo Grifo scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
31
Update Update
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
30
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Christian Günter of SC Freiburg took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it soared over the goal.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to SC Freiburg after a play that resulted in a foul by Ernest Poku.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Philipp Treu, who delivered a cross.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Philipp Treu allowed the ball to go out.
28
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Edmond Tapsoba of Bayer 04 Leverkusen heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes over the goal and to the right. The chance was set up by Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a cross following a corner.
26
Update Update
Edmond Tapsoba of Bayer 04 Leverkusen commits a foul.
26
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg earned a free kick in an offensive position.
25
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
24
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Aleix García from Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
23
Update Update
Niklas Beste from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Ezequiél Fernández of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempts a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the left. The assist came from Ernest Poku.
21
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after Jarell Quansah allowed the ball to go out of play.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after Jarell Quansah allowed the ball to go out.
19
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg attempted a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it went over the bar and to the right. The chance was set up by Niklas Beste, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Igor Matanovic.
16
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
16
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg earned a free kick in an offensive position.
16
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
14
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds. Philipp Treu from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
13
Corner Corner
Another offensive push from SC Freiburg. Vincenzo Grifo takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Janis Blaswich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen makes a save in the right corner.
13
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Aleix García from Bayer 04 Leverkusen fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Ernest Poku.
12
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Philipp Treu allowed the ball to go out.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Niklas Beste from SC Freiburg took a left-footed shot from just a few meters out, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Yuito Suzuki.
5
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Martin Terrier of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
4
Update Update
Martin Terrier of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
4
Update Update
Matthias Ginter from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Bayer 04 Leverkusen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Bundesliga View all league clusters