Sampdoria vs Empoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Mon, 6 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Sampdoria SAM
1 Winner 0
Empoli EMP
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Nicholas Pierini - 58'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Sampdoria and Empoli has finished, with Sampdoria claiming a hard-fought 1-0 victory. After a tightly contested first half left the teams even at 0-0, the hosts found the decisive breakthrough in the second period. The match concluded smoothly without any red cards affecting the dynamics on the pitch. Despite the loss, Empoli controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 56% possession compared to Sampdoria's 44%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to properly evaluate offensive chance creation, but the match's overall efficiency shift was completely in line with the progression of the game. The outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match betting market, which narrowly favored the hosts with a 39.2% implied probability of winning, alongside a 30.9% chance of a draw and a 29.9% probability for an Empoli win. Even with the market's backing, Sampdoria produced a significant deviation level of 60.8% above their baseline expectations to secure the full-time result against an Empoli side considered theoretically stronger on paper.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sampdoria showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Pezzuto
I. Pezzuto
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Monaco
G. Monaco
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Calzavara
A. Calzavara
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Pressato
M. Pressato
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 52 W
Carrarese Rank: 52 L
Venezia Rank: 69 D
Frosinone Rank: 66 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 49 W
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Mantova Rank: 50 D
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 L
Cesena Rank: 54 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 6 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
39.23%
Draw
30.88%
Away Empoli
29.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.26
52.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Empoli
Power Score
52.26
52.55
League Position
13
14
Global Rank
685
610

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.09
21.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.61
34.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sampdoria +1.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Empoli -1.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Empoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sampdoria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sampdoria Empoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sampdoria Empoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sampdoria
Empoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sampdoria
vs
Empoli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sampdoria Empoli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sampdoria 0.33
Empoli 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sampdoria Empoli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sampdoria 0.00
Empoli 0.03
Sampdoria
Empoli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
23 matches
Empoli EMP Away
Match Record
11
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
11
Goals
33
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
33
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
Substitution
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
O. Abildgaard
Denmark
28 O. Abildgaard
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
Italy
21 S. Giordano
F. Conti
Italy
33 F. Conti
S. Esposito
Italy
94 S. Esposito
N. Pierini
Substitution
Italy
77 N. Pierini
T. Begić
Substitution
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
Antonín Barák
Substitution
Czech Republic
72 Antonín Barák
M. Coda
Substitution
Italy
9 M. Coda
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
B. Moruzzi
Italy
27 B. Moruzzi
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
M. Lovato
Italy
20 M. Lovato
A. Candela
Substitution
Italy
26 A. Candela
G. Yepes Laut
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
A. Ghion
Substitution
Italy
18 A. Ghion
E. Saporiti
Substitution
Italy
70 E. Saporiti
S. Shpendi
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
L. Magnino
Substitution
Italy
8 L. Magnino
M. Nasti
Substitution
Italy
19 M. Nasti

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity
33205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivano Pezzuto
Giacomo Monaco
Andrea Calzavara
Matteo Pressato

Statistics

Possession
SAM
45%
EMP
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 0
40 Dangerous attacks 42
44 Possession 56
7 Corners 4
21 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 5
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
19 Throwins 15
64 Ball Safe 67
7 Goal Kicks 9
11 Goal Attempts 5
5 Dribble Attempts 10
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

69 Attacks 99

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
14 Successful Long Passes 25
365 Passes 486
84 Successful Passes Percentage 87
42 Long Passes 52
5 Key Passes 8
306 Successful Passes 425

Defensive

16 Tackles 7
7 Interceptions 4
48 Duels Won 37
0 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 6
32 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

10 Fouls 21
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Defender
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma
Defender83'
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Midfielder
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi
Midfielder82'
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti Midfielder
72
Antonín Barák
Antonín Barák Midfielder
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini
Attacker66'
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini Midfielder
23
Fabio Depaoli
Fabio Depaoli
Defender90+3'
94
Salvatore Esposito
Salvatore Esposito Midfielder
9
Massimo Coda
Massimo Coda Attacker
92
Edoardo Soleri
Edoardo Soleri
Attacker83'
Referee : Ivano Pezzuto

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Defender
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Defender
17
Daniel Fila
Daniel Fila
Attacker86'
27
Brando Moruzzi
Brando Moruzzi Defender
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
99
Flavio Bianchi
Flavio Bianchi
Attacker74'
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Midfielder
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
18
Andrea Ghion
Andrea Ghion Midfielder
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas
Midfielder74'
70
Edoardo Saporiti
Edoardo Saporiti Midfielder
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay
Defender60'
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti Attacker
77
Bogdan Popov
Bogdan Popov
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fabio Depaoli → Nicholas Pierini
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Edoardo Soleri
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90'
87'
Event
Nicolas Haas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Daniel Fila → Antonio Candela
9th Substitution
Event
Edoardo Soleri → Massimo Coda
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Matteo Palma → Alessandro Di Pardo
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Manuel Cicconi → Tjas Begic
6th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Brando Moruzzi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Tjas Begic
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
76'
74'
Event
Nicolas Haas → Andrea Ghion
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Flavio Bianchi → Luca Magnino
4th Substitution
Event
Luigi Cherubini → Antonín Barák
3rd Substitution
66'
60'
Event
Bogdan Popov → Marco Nasti
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Joseph Ceesay → Edoardo Saporiti
1st Substitution
Event
Nicholas Pierini
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
58'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sampdoria exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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