Rukh Vynnyky vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Fri, 10 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
1 – 1
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Igor Neves - 90'
Goal
|
Goal
Elias - 86'

CONTEXT

The match between Rukh Vynnyky and Kolos Kovalivka is now finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The sides were level at 0-0 during halftime, and neither team could find a decisive second-half winner despite Kolos Kovalivka enjoying the greater share of territory. Pre-match forecasts strongly anticipated a draw, and the final result stayed broadly consistent with that projection. A moderate deviation was recorded in favor of Kolos Kovalivka, who entered the fixture as the stronger side yet were unable to convert their territorial edge into victory. Efficiency levels stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with the pre-match view as the heavily indicated stalemate duly arrived. No red cards were shown, and the absence of any major disciplinary incident allowed the contest to flow without disruption. Kolos controlled 61 percent of possession while Rukh Vynnyky managed 39 percent. With expected goals data unavailable, the match could not be measured against chance quality, but the shared points reflected a balanced if unspectacular conclusion.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kolos Kovalivka showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Kotubey
P. Kotubey
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
I. Debenko
I. Debenko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
E. Tsybulko
E. Tsybulko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
D. Kubryak
D. Kubryak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
VS
Kolos Kovalivka R. Kostyshyn
R. Kostyshyn
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: D
Veres Rank: W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: D
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: L
Karpaty Rank: W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rukh Vynnyky
4.02%
Draw
89.81%
Away Kolos Kovalivka
6.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rukh Vynnyky
-2.94%
Draw
+6.82%
Kolos Kovalivka
-3.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.57
23.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rukh Vynnyky
Kolos Kovalivka
Power Score
12.57
23.79
League Position
14
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
Kolos Kovalivka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rukh Vynnyky Kolos Kovalivka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kolos Kovalivka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
8.21
13.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.52
8.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rukh Vynnyky -0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Kolos Kovalivka +0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Kolos Kovalivka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rukh Vynnyky ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kolos Kovalivka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rukh Vynnyky Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Kolos Kovalivka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rukh Vynnyky
Kolos Kovalivka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rukh Vynnyky
vs
Kolos Kovalivka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rukh Vynnyky Kolos Kovalivka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rukh Vynnyky 0.08
Kolos Kovalivka 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rukh Vynnyky Kolos Kovalivka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rukh Vynnyky 0.02
Kolos Kovalivka 0.04
Rukh Vynnyky
Kolos Kovalivka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kolos Kovalivka had peak pressure around 73'.
  • Kolos Kovalivka started the game with stronger pressure.
Rukh Vynnyky Pressure Kolos Kovalivka Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kolos Kovalivka reached the top pressure at 73' (58.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Home
10 matches
Kolos Kovalivka Kolos Kovalivka Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
4
Goals
9
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
9
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:00:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
Y. Gereta
Ukraine
1 Y. Gereta
M. Kyrychok
Substitution
Ukraine
4 M. Kyrychok
D. Pidgurskyi
Ukraine
15 D. Pidgurskyi
O. Tovarnytskyi
Ukraine
76 O. Tovarnytskyi
A. Kitela
Ukraine
75 A. Kitela
M. Boyko
Ukraine
56 M. Boyko
S. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
14 S. Diallo
O. Prytula
Substitution
Ukraine
10 O. Prytula
T. Brener de Paula
Brazil
30 T. Brener de Paula
K. dos Santos Chrispim
Brazil
7 K. dos Santos Chrispim
21
21
I. Pakholyuk
Ukraine
31 I. Pakholyuk
Z. Rukhadze
Georgia
2 Z. Rukhadze
M. Burda
Ukraine
6 M. Burda
E. Kozik
Ukraine
3 E. Kozik
A. Ponedelnik
Ukraine
77 A. Ponedelnik
D. Denysenko
Substitution
47 D. Denysenko
E. Trevizan Telles
Brazil
55 E. Trevizan Telles
N. Gagnidze
Substitution
Georgia
20 N. Gagnidze
H. Artem
Ukraine
15 H. Artem
Y. Klymchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
70 Y. Klymchuk
I. Kane
Substitution
Mali
14 I. Kane

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Petro Kotubey
Igor Debenko
Evgen Tsybulko
Dmitriy Kubryak

Statistics

Possession
Rukh Vynnyky
41%
Kolos Kovalivka
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Shots 2
24 Dangerous attacks 45
39 Possession 61
3 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 4
1 Assists 1

Attacking

53 Attacks 83

Defensive

1 Saves 0

Discipline

5 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Dmitriy Kubryak

Starting XI ▼

1
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta Goalkeeper
4
Mykola Kyrychok
Mykola Kyrychok Defender
79
Volodymyr Yasinskyi
Volodymyr Yasinskyi
Defender77'
76
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi Defender
7
Klayver
Klayver Midfielder
10
Ostap Prytula
Ostap Prytula Midfielder
9
Igor Neves
Igor Neves
Attacker46'
14
Samba Diallo
Samba Diallo Midfielder
45
Mykhailo Dziun
Mykhailo Dziun
Midfielder60'
15
Denys Pidgurskyi
Denys Pidgurskyi Midfielder
30
Talles
Talles Midfielder
56
Maksym Boyko
Maksym Boyko Midfielder
75
Andriy Kitela
Andriy Kitela Midfielder
21
Tutti Attacker
Referee : Dmitriy Kubryak

Starting XI ▼

31
Ivan Pakholyuk
Ivan Pakholyuk Goalkeeper
2
Zurab Rukhadze
Zurab Rukhadze Defender
3
Eduard Kozik
Eduard Kozik Defender
6
Mykyta Burda
Mykyta Burda Defender
77
Andriy Ponedelnik
Andriy Ponedelnik Defender
14
Ibrahim Kane
Ibrahim Kane Midfielder
19
Danyil Alefirenko
Danyil Alefirenko
Midfielder68'
15
Artem Gusol
Artem Gusol Midfielder
20
Nika Gagnidze
Nika Gagnidze Midfielder
27
Taras Stepanenko
Taras Stepanenko
Midfielder89'
47
Daniil Denysenko
Daniil Denysenko Midfielder
10
Luka Stankovski
Luka Stankovski
Midfielder46'
55
Elias
Elias Midfielder
70
Yuriy Klymchuk
Yuriy Klymchuk Attacker
11
Ardit Tahiri
Ardit Tahiri
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Igor Neves
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90'
89'
Event
Taras Stepanenko → Nika Gagnidze
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Elias
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
80'
Event
I. Fedyk
4th Yellowcard
Event
Volodymyr Yasinskyi → Mykola Kyrychok
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Bohdan Kyrykovych → Mykhailo Dziun
6th Substitution
76'
68'
Event
Danyil Alefirenko → Ibrahim Kane
5th Substitution
Event
Mykhailo Dziun → Samba Diallo 
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Maksym Boyko
3rd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Igor Neves → Ostap Prytula
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Luka Stankovski → Daniil Denysenko
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Zurab Rukhadze
2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ardit Tahiri → Yuriy Klymchuk
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Klayver
1st Yellowcard
28'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Kolos Kovalivka exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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