Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Ak Bars Arena Sat, 11 Apr - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Rubin Kazan RKA
0 – 0
Orenburg Orenburg
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 24 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Rubin Kazan and Orenburg is now finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. This draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, especially for Rubin Kazan. Despite entering as the stronger team and enjoying territorial control, they failed to convert their advantage into a win, allowing Orenburg to escape with a point. Rubin Kazan held 58 percent possession to Orenburg’s 42 percent but created little danger in front of goal. With no xG data available, the stalemate highlighted a blunt attacking display from both sides. No red cards were shown, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, as neither team produced a decisive moment in open play or from set pieces. The second half brought no adjustments that altered the balance. Ultimately the outcome aligned with the broader pre-match projection of a tight contest, even if Rubin Kazan’s failure to win felt like an underperformance given their superiority. The result leaves both teams reflecting on a goalless afternoon where possession dominance did not yield rewards. (168 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Prokopov
A. Prokopov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
D. Bereznov
D. Bereznov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
A. Bolotenkov
A. Bolotenkov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
I. Tanashev
I. Tanashev
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
VS
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: W
Krasnodar Rank: W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: L
Rostov Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: L
Zenit Rank: W
Akron Rank: W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rubin Kazan
0%
Draw
0%
Away Orenburg
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.09
19.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rubin Kazan
Orenburg
Power Score
28.09
19.09
League Position
7
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rubin Kazan Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.86
38.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.69
10.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rubin Kazan -3.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Orenburg +3.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
Orenburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rubin Kazan Orenburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rubin Kazan Orenburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
Orenburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rubin Kazan
vs
Orenburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rubin Kazan Orenburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rubin Kazan 0.19
Orenburg 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rubin Kazan Orenburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rubin Kazan 0.00
Orenburg 0.00
Rubin Kazan
Orenburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Orenburg had peak pressure around 74'.
  • Orenburg started the game with stronger pressure.
RKA Pressure Orenburg Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Orenburg reached the top pressure at 74' (76.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rubin Kazan RKA Home
11 matches
Orenburg Orenburg Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
14
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
D. Maldonado Munguía
Honduras
3 D. Maldonado Munguía
I. Vujačić
Montenegro
5 I. Vujačić
E. Teslenko
Russia
2 E. Teslenko
A. Arroyo Córdoba
Substitution
Colombia
12 A. Arroyo Córdoba
N. Vasilyev
Substitution
96 N. Vasilyev
I. Saavedra Pino
Chile
7 I. Saavedra Pino
K. Nizhegorodov
Substitution
Russia
4 K. Nizhegorodov
N. Gripshi
Substitution
Albania
11 N. Gripshi
M. Daku
Albania
10 M. Daku
R. Bezrukov
Substitution
Russia
23 R. Bezrukov
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
A. Cantero Fernandez
Substitution
Paraguay
32 A. Cantero Fernandez
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 F. Moufi
E. Bolotov
Russia
57 E. Bolotov
A. Tataev
Russia
5 A. Tataev
R. Golybin
Substitution
27 R. Golybin
E. Santos Queiroz
Substitution
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
J. Thompson
Substitution
Chile
16 J. Thompson
G. Guzina
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
30 G. Guzina

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Ak Bars Arena
Capacity
45105
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrey Prokopov
Denis Bereznov
Andrey Bolotenkov
Inal Tanashev

Statistics

Possession
RKA
55%
Orenburg
45%

Top Statistics

5 Shots 14
26 Dangerous attacks 45
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

26 Successful Headers 24
21 Throwins 24
14 Goal Kicks 4
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
7 Successful Dribbles 2
21 Dribble Attempts 6
4 Injuries 1
100 Ball Safe 65
5 Substitutions 5
4 Goal Attempts 11

Attacking

85 Attacks 85

Possession

85 Long Passes 71
323 Successful Passes 197
75 Successful Passes Percentage 68
428 Passes 291
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
43 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

10 Tackles 20
8 Interceptions 15
4 Saves 1

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 20
1 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 18
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
2
Egor Teslenko
Egor Teslenko Defender
3
Denil Maldonado
Denil Maldonado Defender
5
Igor Vujacic
Igor Vujacic Defender
4
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Konstantin Nizhegorodov Midfielder
51
Ilya Rozhkov
Ilya Rozhkov
Defender72'
7
Ignacio Saavedra
Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder
12
Anderson Arroyo
Anderson Arroyo Midfielder
70
Dmitriy Kabutov
Dmitriy Kabutov
Defender86'
96
Nikita Vasiljev
Nikita Vasiljev Midfielder
14
Daler Kuzyaev
Daler Kuzyaev
Midfielder55'
10
Mirlind Daku
Mirlind Daku Attacker
11
Nazmi Gripshi
Nazmi Gripshi Attacker
59
Daniil Motorin
Daniil Motorin
Midfielder86'
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker
44
Daniil Kuznetsov
Daniil Kuznetsov
Midfielder71'
Referee : Andrey Prokopov

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi Defender
32
Alexis Cantero
Alexis Cantero Defender
3
Danila Vedernikov
Danila Vedernikov
Defender79'
5
A. Tataev
A. Tataev Midfielder
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
78
Ruslan Kul
Ruslan Kul
Midfielder79'
27
Renat Golybin
Renat Golybin Midfielder
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük
Attacker60'
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla
Attacker79'
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov Midfielder
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina Attacker
19
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus
Attacker90'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Alexandre Jesus → G. Guzina
10th Substitution
87'
Event
E. Bolotov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Dmitriy Kabutov → Anderson Arroyo
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Daniil Motorin → Nazmi Gripshi
9th Substitution
86'
79'
Event
Ruslan Kul → J. Thompson
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Damián Puebla → Du Queiroz
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Danila Vedernikov → Alexis Cantero
7th Substitution
Event
Ilya Rozhkov → Konstantin Nizhegorodov
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov → Ruslan Bezrukov
3rd Substitution
71'
60'
Event
E. Gürlük → Renat Golybin
2nd Substitution
Event
Daler Kuzyaev → Nikita Vasiljev
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Mirlind Daku
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
54'
Event
A. Tataev
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Du Queiroz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rubin Kazan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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