Rubin Kazan vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Ak Bars Arena Sun, 15 Mar - 4:00 PM
Premier League
Rubin Kazan RKA
3 Winner 0
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:00 PM
Igor Vujacic - 23'
Anton Mitryushkin - 55' (Own Goal)
Daniil Kuznetsov - 70'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Maksim Nenakhov 44'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rubin Kazan 3–0 Lokomotiv Moskva. The result saw Rubin Kazan take the points. Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Bolshakov
K. Bolshakov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
E. Bolkhovitin
E. Bolkhovitin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
A. Mashlyakevich
A. Mashlyakevich
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
I. Abrosimov
I. Abrosimov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.65
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
VS
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.08
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: 75 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 55 L
Rostov Rank: 63 L
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 58 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 50 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 58 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 50 W
Sochi Rank: 50 W
Rostov Rank: 63 W
Krasnodar Rank: 77 D
Orenburg Rank: 51 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 16 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rubin Kazan
0%
Draw
0%
Away Lokomotiv Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.46
70.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rubin Kazan
Lokomotiv Moskva
Power Score
61.46
70.42
League Position
8
3
Global Rank
413
173

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rubin Kazan Lokomotiv Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.20
17.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.65
30.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rubin Kazan +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
Lokomotiv Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rubin Kazan Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rubin Kazan Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
Lokomotiv Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rubin Kazan RKA Home
9 matches
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
7
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:27:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
D. Maldonado Munguía
Honduras
3 D. Maldonado Munguía
I. Vujačić
Montenegro
5 (C) I. Vujačić
E. Teslenko
Substitution
Russia
2 E. Teslenko
A. Arroyo Córdoba
Colombia
12 A. Arroyo Córdoba
B. Jocic
Substitution
Serbia
8 B. Jocic
D. Kuzyaev
Russia
14 D. Kuzyaev
I. Rozhkov
Russia
51 I. Rozhkov
R. Bezrukov
Russia
23 R. Bezrukov
N. Gripshi
Substitution
Albania
11 N. Gripshi
V. Hodža
Substitution
Croatia
22 V. Hodža
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 (C) A. Mitryushkin
Lucas Fasson
Substitution
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
G. Nyamsi
France
5 G. Nyamsi
M. Nenakhov
Russia
24 M. Nenakhov
A. Karpukas
Substitution
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
D. Prutsev
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Rudenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
A. Batrakov
Russia
83 A. Batrakov
Z. Bakaev
Substitution
Russia
7 Z. Bakaev
D. Vorobyev
Substitution
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Ak Bars Arena
Capacity
45105
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kirill Bolshakov
Egor Bolkhovitin
Aleksandr Mashlyakevich
Ivan Abrosimov

Statistics

Possession
RKA
52%
Lokomotiv Moskva
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
13 Shots 7
36 Dangerous attacks 40
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 4
24 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

28 Successful Headers 18
14 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Assists 0
21 Throwins 24
79 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
11 Successful Dribbles 6
9 Goal Kicks 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 0
89 Ball Safe 84
6 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
91 Attacks 98

Possession

292 Successful Passes 307
91 Long Passes 63
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
71 Successful Passes Percentage 72
413 Passes 426
33 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

16 Tackles 7
7 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 2

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
11 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
14 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
6.99
2
Egor Teslenko
Egor Teslenko Defender
7.03
27
Aleksey Gritsaenko
Aleksey Gritsaenko
Defender62'
6.8
3
Denil Maldonado
Denil Maldonado Defender
6.83
5
Igor Vujacic
Igor Vujacic (C) Defender
8.09
8
Bogdan Jocic
Bogdan Jocic Midfielder
6.89
44
Daniil Kuznetsov
Daniil Kuznetsov
Midfielder62'
7.4
12
Anderson Arroyo
Anderson Arroyo Midfielder
7.08
14
Daler Kuzyaev
Daler Kuzyaev Midfielder
6.73
51
Ilya Rozhkov
Ilya Rozhkov Midfielder
6.56
11
Nazmi Gripshi
Nazmi Gripshi Attacker
7.31
21
Aleksandr Zotov
Aleksandr Zotov
Midfielder75'
6.48
22
Veldin Hodza
Veldin Hodza Attacker
7.11
19
Oleg Ivanov
Oleg Ivanov
Midfielder84'
6.89
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker
7.33
Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin (C) Goalkeeper
5.64
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
5.92
2
Cristian Ramírez
Cristian Ramírez
Defender72'
6.54
5
Gerzino Nyamsi
Gerzino Nyamsi Defender
6.23
24
Maksim Nenakhov
Maksim Nenakhov Defender
5.43
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
6.29
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev Midfielder
6.52
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov
Defender46'
6.25
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
6.09
99
Ruslan Myalkovskiy
Ruslan Myalkovskiy
Attacker72'
6.23
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
6.37
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
6.57
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
6.32
27
Nikolay Komlichenko
Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker62'
6.55
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
6.52
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera
Midfielder72'
6.39

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Ruslan Myalkovskiy
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Oleg Ivanov → Veldin Hodza
10th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
Aleksey Batrakov
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Aleksandr Zotov → Nazmi Gripshi
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Konstantin Nizhegorodov → Ilya Rozhkov
8th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Lucas Vera → Dmitry Vorobyev
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Ruslan Myalkovskiy → Aleksandr Rudenko
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Cristian Ramírez → Lucas Fasson
6th Substitution
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov → Bogdan Jocic
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Aleksey Gritsaenko → Egor Teslenko
2nd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko → Artem Karpukas
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Dmitry Vorobyev
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Anton Mitryushkin
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
55'
Event
Egor Teslenko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Alexander Silyanov → Zelimkhan Bakaev
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Maksim Nenakhov
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Franc Artiga
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
36'
Event
Igor Vujacic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'
22'
Event
Maksim Nenakhov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rubin Kazan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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