Rubin Kazan vs Krasnodar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Ak Bars Arena Mon, 9 Mar - 12:07 AM
Premier League
Rubin Kazan RKA
2 Winner 1
Krasnodar KRA
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 12:07 AM
Nazmi Gripshi - 24'
Konstantin Nizhegorodov - 73'
Goal
|
Goal
Jhon Córdoba - 90+3'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rubin Kazan 2–1 Krasnodar. The result saw Rubin Kazan take the points. Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Ermilov
A. Ermilov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
S. Karasev
S. Karasev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
A. Lunev
A. Lunev
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
A. Anopa
A. Anopa
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.06
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
VS
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: L
Rostov Rank: L
Zenit Rank: L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rubin Kazan
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krasnodar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.33
71.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rubin Kazan
Krasnodar
Power Score
43.33
71.67
League Position
8
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rubin Kazan Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.37
13.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.71
22.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rubin Kazan +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Krasnodar -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
Krasnodar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rubin Kazan ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rubin Kazan Krasnodar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rubin Kazan Krasnodar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rubin Kazan
Krasnodar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rubin Kazan RKA Home
9 matches
Krasnodar KRA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
4
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:07:44+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 12:07 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Ak Bars Arena
Capacity
45105
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleksey Ermilov
Sergey Karasev
Aleksey Lunev
Anton Anopa

Statistics

Possession
RKA
42%
KRA
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 2
30 Dangerous attacks 30
38 Possession 62
1 Corners 2
26 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
2 Goal Kicks 5
21 Dribble Attempts 11
10 Successful Dribbles 3
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
13 Successful Headers 15
17 Throwins 15
2 Injuries 4
84 Ball Safe 82
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

96 Attacks 95

Possession

75 Long Passes 67
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
64 Successful Passes Percentage 77
27 Successful Long Passes 23
347 Passes 582
221 Successful Passes 450

Defensive

2 Saves 3
16 Tackles 17
12 Interceptions 16

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 8
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

17 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Anderson Arroyo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Daniil Motorin → Jacques Siwe
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Oleg Ivanov → Veldin Hodza
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Jacques Siwe
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
79'
Event
Eldar Guseynov → Victor Sá
8th Substitution
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov → Nazmi Gripshi
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Header / 2nd Goal
73'
68'
Event
Valentin Paltsev → Giovanni González
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → João Batxi
5th Substitution
Event
Daler Kuzyaev → Ruslan Bezrukov
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Konstantin Nizhegorodov → Ilya Rozhkov
4th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Kevin Lenini → Douglas Augusto
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Nikita Krivtsov → Aleksandr Chernikov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ignacio Saavedra
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
Nazmi Gripshi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rubin Kazan exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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