Rostov vs Spartak Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Rostov FCR
1 – 1
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
Mohammad Mohebi - 42' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Roman Zobnin - 8'

CONTEXT

The match between Rostov and Spartak Moskva is finished, ending in a 0-0 draw. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, centered on Spartak Moskva. The visitors entered as the stronger side yet could not convert their status into a victory, producing an outcome that fell short of what had been anticipated despite broadly balanced pre-match assessments. Spartak Moskva held the greater share of possession at 57 percent to Rostov’s 43 percent, but neither team generated clear dominance. No xG data is available to provide further context. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across the full match, and the final score aligned with the pre-match projection in its broad contours even as Spartak underperformed relative to their perceived edge. No red cards were issued and no decisive events altered the flow. Both sides appeared evenly matched at half-time, and the stalemate persisted after the interval. The draw ultimately reflected a contest in which defensive organization prevailed over attacking ambition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Sukhoy
A. Sukhoy
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
I. Demeshko
I. Demeshko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
A. Bogdanov
A. Bogdanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
N. Novikov
N. Novikov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
VS
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
Zenit Rank: L
Akron Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 6 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rostov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Spartak Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.72
31.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rostov
Spartak Moskva
Power Score
19.72
31.9
League Position
10
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Spartak Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.56
32.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.11
27.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rostov -0.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Spartak Moskva +0.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Spartak Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rostov Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rostov Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Spartak Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rostov
vs
Spartak Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rostov Spartak Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rostov 0.27
Spartak Moskva 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rostov Spartak Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rostov 0.02
Spartak Moskva 0.03
Rostov
Spartak Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Spartak Moskva had peak pressure around 71'.
  • FCR started the game with stronger pressure.
FCR Pressure Spartak Moskva Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Spartak Moskva reached the top pressure at 71' (80.16).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home
41 matches
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Away
Match Record
13
Wins
22
6
Draws
6
22
Losses
13
Goals
54
Goals Scored
72
72
Goals Conceded
54
-18
Goal Difference
+18
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
R. Yatimov
Tajikistan
1 R. Yatimov
V. Melekhin
Substitution
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
D. Chistyakov
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
D. Semenchuk
Substitution
Russia
22 D. Semenchuk
R. Soares dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 R. Soares dos Santos
K. Shchetinin
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
A. Mironov
Russia
8 A. Mironov
K. Kuchaev
Substitution
Russia
18 K. Kuchaev
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
T. Suleymanov
Substitution
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
M. Mohebi
Iran
9 M. Mohebi
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
I. Dmitriev
Substitution
Russia
27 I. Dmitriev
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
C. Wooh
France
3 C. Wooh
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
R. Zobnin
Substitution
Russia
47 R. Zobnin
E. Barco
Substitution
Argentina
5 E. Barco
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
J. Costa Martins
Brazil
10 J. Costa Martins
M. Ugalde
Substitution
Costa Rica
9 M. Ugalde

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Capacity
2500
Attendance
15506
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleksey Sukhoy
Igor Demeshko
Aleksandr Bogdanov
Nikita Novikov

Statistics

Possession
FCR
44%
Spartak Moskva
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 6
37 Dangerous attacks 46
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 4
23 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 4
10 Goal Attempts 11
70 Ball Safe 95
27 Successful Headers 22
28 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
0 Assists 1
18 Dribble Attempts 10
12 Throwins 26
5 Successful Dribbles 4
9 Goal Kicks 11
2 Penalties 0

Attacking

81 Attacks 96
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

80 Long Passes 80
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
64 Successful Passes Percentage 73
300 Passes 409
31 Successful Long Passes 36
193 Successful Passes 299

Defensive

4 Saves 2
12 Interceptions 6
13 Tackles 16

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 21

Lineup

Referee : Aleksey Sukhoy

Starting XI ▼

1
Rustam Yatimov
Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
91
Anton Shamonin
Anton Shamonin
Attacker83'
22
David Semenchuk
David Semenchuk Defender
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako
Defender66'
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
67
German Ignatov
German Ignatov
Defender82'
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
18
Konstantin Kuchaev
Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder
62
Ivan Komarov
Ivan Komarov
Midfielder57'
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Midfielder
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi Attacker
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich
Defender83'
Referee : Aleksey Sukhoy

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
27
Igor Dmitriev
Igor Dmitriev Defender
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari
Midfielder46'
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Defender
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins
Midfielder80'
10
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Midfielder
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin Midfielder
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov
Defender55'
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde Attacker
11
Levi García
Levi García
Attacker81'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Rustam Yatimov
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
90'
Event
Levi García
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Andrey Langovich → Timur Suleymanov
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Anton Shamonin → Viktor Melekhin
9th Substitution
83'
Event
German Ignatov → Ronaldo
7th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Levi García → Manfred Ugalde
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Christopher Martins → Esequiel Barco
5th Substitution
Event
Oumar Sako → David Semenchuk
4th Substitution
66'
Event
David Semenchuk
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Ivan Komarov → Konstantin Kuchaev
3rd Substitution
57'
55'
Event
Daniil Denisov → Roman Zobnin
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Pablo Solari → Igor Dmitriev
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mohammad Mohebi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
42'
Event
Ronaldo
Penalty awarded
40'
40'
Event
Alexander Djiku
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
8'
Event
Roman Zobnin
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Spartak Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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