Rostov vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Sat, 14 Mar - 3:15 PM
Premier League
Rostov
FCR
0
1
1
Dinamo Moskva
DMO
Full Time
Sat, 14 Mar
3:15 PM
|
K. Tyukavin - 45+5'
Viktor Melekhin 17'
|
Rubens 39'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Rostov 0–1 Dinamo Moskva. The result saw Dinamo Moskva take the points. Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 41%–59%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Popkov
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
N. Novikov
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
R. Mukhtarov
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
Y. Bobrovskiy
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
J. Alba Cabello
VS
R. Gusev
1.31
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rank: 65
D
Krasnodar
Rank: 77
L
Rubin Kazan
Rank: 60
W
Lokomotiv Moskva
Rank: 73
L
Krylya Sovetov
Rank: 55
L
Sochi
Rank: 50
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva
Rank: 74
W
Krylya Sovetov
Rank: 55
W
Spartak Moskva
Rank: 73
D
Akhmat Grozny
Rank: 58
L
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rank: 56
W
Akron
Rank: 57
L
12
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 17
17
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Rostov
0%
Draw
0%
Dinamo Moskva
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.13
71.35
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rostov
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
60.13
71.35
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
452
155
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Rostov
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Rostov Dinamo Moskva
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Rostov
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Dinamo Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Rostov
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.98
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Rostov
+0.80
Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva
-0.80
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Rostov
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Dinamo Moskva
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Rostov
Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Rostov
Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Rostov
FCR
Home
11
matches
Dinamo Moskva
DMO
Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
3
Goals
15
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
15
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:12:13+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-5-2
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 R. Yatimov
4 V. Melekhin
78 D. Chistyakov
3 O. Sako
G. Ignatov
#6746'
7 R. Soares dos Santos
D. Semenchuk
#2219'
62 I. Komarov
K. Kuchaev
#1860'
8 A. Mironov
10 K. Shchetinin
A. Shamonin
#9181'
40 I. Vakhaniya
69 (C) E. Golenkov
M. Mohebi
#946'
99 T. Suleymanov
40 K. Rasulov
7 D. Skopintsev
55 M. Osipenko
2 N. Marichal
4 J. Cáceres
74 (C) D. Fomin
44 R. Dias
T. Marinkin
#6056'
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
10 J. de Souza Mares
Y. Gladyshev
#9112'
13 N. Ngamaleu
E. Maouhoub
#1474'
70 K. Tyukavin
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Capacity
2500
Attendance
10996
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stanislav Popkov
Nikita Novikov
Rustam Mukhtarov
Yan Bobrovskiy
Statistics
Possession
FCR
43%
DMO
57%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
1
0
Big Chances Created
1
2
Shots
8
36
Dangerous attacks
61
41
Possession
59
7
Corners
7
14
Free kicks
16
0
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
5
Substitutions
4
11
Goal Attempts
8
63
Ball Safe
64
1
Injuries
5
25
Successful Headers
25
9
Goal Kicks
7
8
Dribble Attempts
14
16
Throwins
15
38
Successful Dribbles Percentage
36
3
Successful Dribbles
5
0
Assists
1
Attacking
68
Attacks
97
Possession
49
Successful Long Passes Percentage
46
32
Successful Long Passes
29
71
Successful Passes Percentage
82
278
Passes
402
65
Long Passes
63
198
Successful Passes
331
Defensive
17
Tackles
10
5
Interceptions
4
2
Saves
6
Build-up
6
Accurate Crosses
8
21
Total Crosses
23
Discipline
14
Fouls
11
1
Offsides
2
Lineup
Referee :
Yan Bobrovskiy
Manager ▼
J. Alba Cabello
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Rustam Yatimov
Goalkeeper
6.66 3
Oumar Sako
Defender
6.97 4
Viktor Melekhin
Defender
3.33
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Defender
7.05 7
Ronaldo
Midfielder
6.74 67German Ignatov
6.52Defender46'
8
Aleksey Mironov
Midfielder
6.52
18Konstantin Kuchaev
6.77Midfielder60'
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Midfielder
7.61 40
Ilya Vakhania
Midfielder
6.96 91Anton Shamonin
6.6Attacker81'
62
Ivan Komarov
Midfielder
6.5 22David Semenchuk
6.84Defender19'
69
Egor Golenkov (C)
Attacker
7.47 99
Timur Suleymanov
Attacker
6.54
9Mohammad Mohebi
6.78Midfielder46'
Substitutes ▼
13
Hidajet Hankic
Goalkeeper
5
Danila Prokhin
Defender
59
Nikita Babakin
Defender
87
Andrey Langovich
Defender
19
Khoren Bayramyan
Midfielder
58
Daniil Shantaliy
Midfielder
17
Ibraheem Mahfus Ajasa
Attacker
Referee :
Yan Bobrovskiy
Manager ▼
R. Gusev
Coach
Starting XI ▼
40
Kurban Rasulov
Goalkeeper
8.02
2
Nicolás Marichal
Defender
7.32 4
Juan José Cáceres
Defender
7.54 7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Defender
6.81 55
Maksim Osipenko
Defender
6.99 10
Bitello
Midfielder
7.62
11
Arthur Gomes
Midfielder
6.85 60Timofey Marinkin
6.55Midfielder56'
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Midfielder
6.55 91Y. Gladyshev
6.73Attacker12'
44
Rubens
Midfielder
6.01
74
Daniil Fomin (C)
Midfielder
7.47 70
K. Tyukavin
Attacker
14E. Maouhoub
6.46Attacker74'
Substitutes ▼
47
Andrei Kudravets
Goalkeeper
85
Aleksandr Temirov
Goalkeeper
6
Roberto Fernandez
Defender
79
Maksim Balakhonov
Defender
15
Danil Glebov
Midfielder
50
A. Kutitskiy
Midfielder
88
V. Okishor
Midfielder
17
U. Babaev
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+4'
Kurban Rasulov
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Bitello
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Anton Shamonin → Ilya Vakhania
9th Substitution
81'
74'
E. Maouhoub → K. Tyukavin
7th Substitution
74'
Ivan Sergeev → Y. Gladyshev
8th Substitution
62'
K. Tyukavin
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
Konstantin Kuchaev → Aleksey Mironov
6th Substitution
60'
56'
Timofey Marinkin → Arthur Gomes
5th Substitution
Mohammad Mohebi → Timur Suleymanov
4th Substitution
46'
German Ignatov → Ronaldo
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
K. Tyukavin
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Timur Suleymanov
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
39'
Rubens
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
28'
Rubens
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Aleksey Mironov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
David Semenchuk → Ivan Komarov
2nd Substitution
19'
Viktor Melekhin
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
17'
Viktor Melekhin
Card adjusted
17'
12'
Y. Gladyshev → Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
1st Substitution
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Dinamo Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.