Rostov vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Sat, 7 Mar - 1:45 PM
Premier League
Rostov FCR
1 – 1
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 1:45 PM
Ronaldo - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
B. Gil - 39'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rostov 1–1 Baltika Kaliningrad. The match ended in a draw. Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Kazartsev
V. Kazartsev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
A. Khatuev
A. Khatuev
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Y. Khromey
Y. Khromey
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.31
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
VS
Baltika Kaliningrad Y. Nagaytsev
Y. Nagaytsev
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: L
Sochi Rank: W
Akron Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rostov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Baltika Kaliningrad
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
36.67
51.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rostov
Baltika Kaliningrad
Power Score
36.67
51.83
League Position
10
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Baltika Kaliningrad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.80
19.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.90
39.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rostov +2.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad -2.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Baltika Kaliningrad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rostov Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rostov Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rostov
Baltika Kaliningrad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home
3 matches
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:03:45+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka
Capacity
2500
Attendance
6950
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vasili Kazartsev
Adlan Khatuev
Yaroslav Khromey

Statistics

Possession
FCR
52%
Baltika Kaliningrad
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
17 Shots 8
58 Dangerous attacks 39
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 2
20 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
26 Throwins 21
6 Successful Dribbles 2
14 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Goal Kicks 10
49 Successful Headers 38
1 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0
86 Ball Safe 93
4 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 7
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

99 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

231 Successful Passes 253
61 Successful Passes Percentage 65
376 Passes 387
106 Long Passes 89
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
46 Successful Long Passes 32

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
16 Tackles 8
3 Saves 3

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 10
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ronaldo
Header / 2nd Goal
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Mingiyan Beveev
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Stefan Kovac → Maksim Petrov
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Yuriy Kovalev → I. Manelov
7th Substitution
89'
Event
I. Manelov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Danila Prokhin → Viktor Melekhin
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Anton Shamonin → Ivan Komarov
5th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Aleksandr Filin → Ivan Belikov
3rd Substitution
79'
Event
T. Yenne → B. Gil
4th Substitution
Event
Aleksey Mironov
OffTarget
78'
Event
Konstantin Kuchaev → Egor Golenkov
2nd Substitution
69'
47'
Event
Ilya Petrov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
I. Manelov → Nikolai Titkov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
B. Gil
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
Event
Ivan Belikov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Oumar Sako
Goal disallowed
16'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Baltika Kaliningrad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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