Rijeka vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion HNK Rijeka Sun, 15 Mar - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Rijeka Rijeka
0 Winner 2
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:45 PM
|
Goal
Smail Prevljak - 2'
Emil Frederiksen - 9'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rijeka 0–2 Istra 1961. The result saw Istra 1961 take the points. Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 71%–29%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Knez
D. Knez
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Bel
D. Bel
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
A. Terzić
A. Terzić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
B. Zobenica
B. Zobenica
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.62
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
VS
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Varaždin Rank: 66 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 77 D
Osijek Rank: 61 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 61 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 L
Gorica Rank: 58 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 77 L
Vukovar Rank: 57 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 62 D
42
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
42 - 15 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
58.97%
Draw
26.49%
Away Istra 1961
14.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.94
64.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Istra 1961
Power Score
70.94
64.22
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
161
327

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Istra 1961

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.66
26.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.90
48.66
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rijeka +2.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Istra 1961 -2.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Istra 1961
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Istra 1961
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Istra 1961
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Istra 1961
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rijeka Rijeka Home
22 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
14
Wins
3
5
Draws
5
3
Losses
14
Goals
42
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
42
+26
Goal Difference
-26
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:43:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 (C) M. Zlomislić
J. Lasickas
Substitution
Lithuania
23 J. Lasickas
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
A. Husic
Switzerland
51 A. Husic
N. Bodetic
Croatia
91 N. Bodetic
G. Rukavina
Substitution
Croatia
11 G. Rukavina
T. Dantas
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
D. Petrovič
Substitution
Slovenia
8 D. Petrovič
C. Legbo Ouguehi
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
A. Jurič
Croatia
77 A. Jurič
D. Čop
Substitution
Croatia
9 D. Čop
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
M. Heister
Germany
26 M. Heister
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
M. Nasraoui
Tunisia
3 M. Nasraoui
A. Kadušić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
L. Štulac
Slovenia
23 L. Štulac
J. Radošević
Croatia
5 (C) J. Radošević
S. Goričan
Substitution
Croatia
11 S. Goričan
A. Mauric
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity
8279
Attendance
5897
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dino Knez
Dario Bel
Ante Terzić
Bojan Zobenica

Statistics

Possession
Rijeka
68%
Istra 1961
32%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
29 Shots 6
111 Dangerous attacks 36
71 Possession 29
11 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

26 Throwins 17
5 Goal Kicks 23
37 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
0 Assists 2
7 Successful Dribbles 6
19 Dribble Attempts 16
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 0
160 Attacks 83

Possession

466 Successful Passes 146
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
530 Passes 238
52 Long Passes 64
26 Key Passes 6
88 Successful Passes Percentage 61
33 Successful Long Passes 17

Defensive

15 Tackles 22
2 Interceptions 7
0 Saves 5

Build-up

17 Accurate Crosses 2
51 Total Crosses 5

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic (C) Goalkeeper
6.12
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Defender
6.3
7
Tornike Morchiladze
Tornike Morchiladze
Midfielder46'
6.84
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
7.48
51
Anel Husic
Anel Husic Defender
7.39
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic Defender
6.83
8
Dejan Petrovic
Dejan Petrovic Midfielder
6.37
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Midfielder46'
7.05
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina Midfielder
6.48
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec
Defender61'
6.82
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Midfielder
6.48
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Attacker61'
6.44
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
7.76
9
Duje Cop
Duje Cop Attacker
6.05
25
Dominik Thaqi
Dominik Thaqi
Attacker73'
6.73
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric Attacker
7.28
Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
7.5
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Defender
6.95
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
6.47
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
7.07
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Defender
8.15
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic (C) Midfielder
7.02
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Midfielder
6.42
18
Israel Isaac Ayuma
Israel Isaac Ayuma
Midfielder54'
7.07
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican Midfielder
6.96
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić
Defender68'
6.52
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
7.39
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen
Defender83'
6.6
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Midfielder
6.79
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
8.15

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Marcel Heister
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ante Orec
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
83'
Event
Samuli Miettinen → Emil Frederiksen
8th Substitution
Event
Dominik Thaqi → Duje Cop
7th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
6th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Niko Šepić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Niko Šepić → Silvio Gorican
6th Substitution
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei → Christian Ouguehi Legbo
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Ante Orec → Gabriel Rukavina
5th Substitution
61'
54'
Event
Israel Isaac Ayuma → Antonio Mauric
3rd Substitution
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar → Dejan Petrovic
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tornike Morchiladze → Justas Lasickas
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Anel Husic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
9'
Event
Emil Frederiksen
Header / 2nd Goal
2'
Event
Smail Prevljak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Istra 1961 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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