Rheindorf Altach vs Grazer AK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
CASHPOINT Arena Sat, 11 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Rheindorf Altach ALT
1 Winner 0
Grazer AK GAK
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 4 Relegation Round
Patrick Greil - 77'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Rheindorf Altach and Grazer AK is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. After a goalless first half, Rheindorf Altach scored in the second period to claim all three points in a tight contest. Pre-match projections indicated a closely balanced encounter, with a 36.7 percent chance of a home win, 31.2 percent for a draw, and 32.1 percent for an away victory. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Rheindorf Altach, who secured the points despite Grazer AK being regarded as the stronger team entering the fixture. Grazer AK controlled more of the ball with 56 percent possession to Altach’s 44 percent, yet they were unable to generate a decisive breakthrough. No expected goals data was available to assess alignment, but the outcome stayed in line with the efficiency shift and proved consistent with broader pre-match expectations. Neither side received a red card and no major disruptive events altered the flow, allowing Altach’s clinical finishing to prove the difference in a narrow home success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rheindorf Altach showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Ristoskov
E. Ristoskov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.18
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
A. Borucki
A. Borucki
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.18
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
R. Brandner
R. Brandner
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.18
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
S. Macanovic
S. Macanovic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.18
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
Rheindorf Altach O. Zaric
O. Zaric
VS
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried Rank: L
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: W
Sturm Graz Rank: L
SK Rapid Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
WSG Tirol Rank: L
Ried Rank: W
Hartberg Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rheindorf Altach
36.67%
Draw
31.2%
Away Grazer AK
32.13%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rheindorf Altach
-57.49%
Draw
+25.55%
Grazer AK
+31.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.88
24.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rheindorf Altach
Grazer AK
Power Score
17.88
24.75
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rheindorf Altach — Opponent-weighted form score
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rheindorf Altach Grazer AK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rheindorf Altach

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rheindorf Altach ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grazer AK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.02
16.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.34
21.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rheindorf Altach +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Grazer AK -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rheindorf Altach
Grazer AK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rheindorf Altach ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grazer AK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rheindorf Altach Grazer AK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rheindorf Altach Grazer AK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rheindorf Altach
Grazer AK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rheindorf Altach
vs
Grazer AK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rheindorf Altach Grazer AK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rheindorf Altach 0.32
Grazer AK 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rheindorf Altach Grazer AK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rheindorf Altach 0.00
Grazer AK 0.04
Rheindorf Altach
Grazer AK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GAK had peak pressure around 7'.
  • GAK started the game with stronger pressure.
ALT Pressure GAK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GAK reached the top pressure at 7' (84.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rheindorf Altach ALT Home
10 matches
Grazer AK GAK Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
2
Goals
15
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
15
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:09:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
D. Stojanovic
Austria
1 D. Stojanovic
F. Milojevic
Austria
27 F. Milojevic
B. Zech
Austria
23 B. Zech
L. Jäger
Austria
17 L. Jäger
S. Ingolitsch
Austria
25 S. Ingolitsch
V. Demaku
Austria
6 V. Demaku
M. Bähre
Germany
8 M. Bähre
M. Ouédraogo
Burkina Faso
29 M. Ouédraogo
Y. Massombo Litawumba
Substitution
France
28 Y. Massombo Litawumba
S. Hrstić
Substitution
Serbia
11 S. Hrstić
P. Greil
Substitution
Austria
18 P. Greil
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
L. Vraa-Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 T. Schriebl
J. Italiano
Australia
14 J. Italiano
R. Harakaté
France
22 R. Harakaté
M. Grosse
Substitution
Austria
11 M. Grosse

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 4 · Relegation Round
Stadium
CASHPOINT Arena
Capacity
8500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Emil Ristoskov
Alexander Borucki
Roland Brandner
Stefan Macanovic

Statistics

Possession
ALT
45%
GAK
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 7
25 Dangerous attacks 43
44 Possession 56
0 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

18 Throwins 18
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Goal Kicks 9
14 Dribble Attempts 12
6 Successful Dribbles 6
3 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 1
72 Ball Safe 86
8 Goal Attempts 7
1 Assists 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 89
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

240 Successful Passes 332
336 Passes 428
76 Long Passes 79
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
71 Successful Passes Percentage 78
30 Successful Long Passes 36
6 Key Passes 3

Defensive

15 Tackles 10
8 Interceptions 12
4 Saves 1

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 4
8 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

15 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Emil Ristoskov

Starting XI ▼

1
Dejan Stojanovic
Dejan Stojanovic Goalkeeper
17
Lukas Jäger
Lukas Jäger Defender
23
Benedikt Zech
Benedikt Zech Defender
27
Filip Milojevic
Filip Milojevic Defender
6
Vesel Demaku
Vesel Demaku Midfielder
8
Mike-Steven Bähre
Mike-Steven Bähre Midfielder
25
Sandro Ingolitsch
Sandro Ingolitsch Midfielder
29
Mohamed Ouédraogo
Mohamed Ouédraogo Midfielder
11
Srdjan Hrstic
Srdjan Hrstic Attacker
9
Marlon Mustapha
Marlon Mustapha
Attacker46'
18
Patrick Greil
Patrick Greil Attacker
26
Erkin Yalcin
Erkin Yalcin
Attacker87'
28
Yann Massombo
Yann Massombo Attacker
5
Lukas Gugganig
Lukas Gugganig
Defender90+1'
Referee : Emil Ristoskov

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender
4
Martin Kreuzriegler
Martin Kreuzriegler
Defender84'
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder69'
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl Midfielder
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder84'
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse Attacker
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner
Attacker56'
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lukas Gugganig → Yann Massombo
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Erkin Yalcin → Patrick Greil
6th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Tobias Koch → Thorsten Schriebl
4th Substitution
84'
Event
Martin Kreuzriegler → Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
5th Substitution
Event
Patrick Greil
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
77'
69'
Event
Murat Satin → Christian Lichtenberger
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Alexander Hofleitner → Mark Grosse
2nd Substitution
Event
Marlon Mustapha → Srdjan Hrstic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mike-Steven Bähre
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rheindorf Altach exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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