Rayo Vallecano vs Real Oviedo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Vallecas Fri, 6 Mar - 2:05 PM
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano RAY
3 Winner 0
Real Oviedo OVI
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:05 PM
Jorge de Frutos - 44', 50' (P)
Álvaro García - 62'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, with Rayo Vallecano securing a comprehensive 3-0 full-time victory over Real Oviedo. The home side established control early, holding a 1-0 advantage at halftime before comfortably extending their lead in the second half. Going into the fixture, Rayo Vallecano were the clear favorites, possessing a 54.4% pre-market win probability compared to a 26.7% chance of a draw and just 18.9% for an away upset. The final outcome firmly aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the sweeping nature of the win still resulted in a significant deviation level in favor of Rayo Vallecano. On the pitch, overall ball control was relatively balanced. Rayo Vallecano held a slight edge in possession at 52%, while Real Oviedo managed 48%. Because expected goals (xG) data was not available for this contest, it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with the underlying xG metrics. Despite the missing xG data, the match's efficiency shift was entirely in line with the decisive result. Furthermore, the flow of the game was uninterrupted by severe disciplinary actions, as the match concluded cleanly with zero red cards for either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rayo Vallecano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Naranjo Pérez
J. Naranjo Pérez
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
M. Cerdán Aguilar
M. Cerdán Aguilar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
J. Figueiredo Comesaña
J. Figueiredo Comesaña
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
VS
Real Oviedo J. Almada Álves
J. Almada Álves
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.61
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mallorca Rank: W
Getafe Rank: D
Elche Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: D
Espanyol Rank: L
Valencia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: L
Atlético Madrid Rank: L
Real Sociedad Rank: D
Athletic Club Rank: L
Girona Rank: W
FC Barcelona Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rayo Vallecano
54.43%
Draw
26.71%
Away Real Oviedo
18.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
38.46
25.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rayo Vallecano
Real Oviedo
Power Score
38.46
25.59
League Position
12
20
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Oviedo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rayo Vallecano Real Oviedo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Oviedo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rayo Vallecano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Oviedo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.92
20.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.63
41.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rayo Vallecano +1.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Oviedo -1.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rayo Vallecano
Real Oviedo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rayo Vallecano
vs
Real Oviedo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rayo Vallecano Real Oviedo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rayo Vallecano Real Oviedo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Rayo Vallecano
Real Oviedo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rayo Vallecano RAY Home
2 matches
Real Oviedo OVI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
3
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
2.64
xG
0.86
0.86
xGA
2.64

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:16:54+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:05 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de Vallecas
Capacity
14708
Attendance
11886
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Marcos Cerdán Aguilar
Javier Figueiredo Comesaña
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Statistics

Possession
RAY
54%
OVI
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
19 Shots 8
56 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
12 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 18
13 Successful Headers 8
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
10 Goal Kicks 9
13 Dribble Attempts 19
9 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
80 Ball Safe 90
12 Goal Attempts 4
2 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

91 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
322 Successful Passes 283
393 Passes 353
62 Long Passes 69
29 Successful Long Passes 30
82 Successful Passes Percentage 80
13 Key Passes 6

Defensive

2 Saves 4
7 Interceptions 10
26 Tackles 18

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3
16 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 10

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Iván Balliu → Pathé Ciss
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Alexandre Zurawski → Álvaro García
9th Substitution
88'
74'
Event
Thiago Borbas → Federico Viñas
8th Substitution
Event
Oscar Trejo → Ilias Akhomach
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Isi Palazón → Pedro Díaz
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Fran Pérez → Jorge de Frutos
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Pedro Díaz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Álvaro García
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
61'
Event
Nicolás Fonseca → Santiago Colombatto
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Luka Ilic → Haissem Hassan
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Alberto Reina
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jorge de Frutos
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
50'
46'
Event
Santi Cazorla → Kwasi Sibo
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Thiago Fernández → Ilyas Chaira
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jorge de Frutos
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
44'
35'
Event
Kwasi Sibo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with Rayo Vallecano defeating Real Oviedo 3-0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Dani Calvo allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Thiago Fernández allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Santi Cazorla from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with Rayo Vallecano securing a 3-0 victory over Real Oviedo.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Rayo Vallecano defeating Real Oviedo by a score of 3-0.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Dani Calvo gave it away.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Pep Chavarría.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Alemão is coming on to replace Álvaro García.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Iván Balliu replaces Pathé Ciss due to injury.
84
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
84
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Pathé Ciss from Rayo Vallecano.
84
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo took a right-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side. The assist came from Lucas Ahijado, who delivered a cross.
83
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Thiago Borbas from Real Oviedo takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box. However, Augusto Batalla of Rayo Vallecano makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Dani Calvo, who set it up with a header.
83
Update Update
Thiago Borbas from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
82
Update Update
Rayo Vallecano's Luiz Felipe committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Nicolás Fonseca from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
81
Update Update
Óscar Trejo from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
79
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Isi Palazón from Rayo Vallecano.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after David Carmo allowed the ball to go out.
76
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Oviedo after Augusto Batalla allowed the ball to go out of play.
75
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Nicolás Fonseca from Real Oviedo takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Augusto Batalla of Rayo Vallecano makes a save, directing the ball to the right corner.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Thiago Borbas from Real Oviedo took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly went to the left. The assist came from Thiago Fernández.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Thiago Borbas comes on to replace Federico Viñas.
70
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Fran Pérez from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly went wide to the left after a quick counterattack.
70
Update Update
Óscar Trejo from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Nicolás Fonseca of Real Oviedo committed a foul.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Óscar Trejo replaces Ilias Akhomach.
67
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Lucas Ahijado allowed the ball to go out.
66
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. David Carmo of Real Oviedo heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The cross was delivered by Santi Cazorla.
65
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Oviedo after Ilias Akhomach allowed the ball to go out.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Fran Pérez replaces Jorge de Frutos.
64
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in his own half.
64
Update Update
Pedro Díaz from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Isi Palazón comes on to replace Pedro Díaz.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rayo Vallecano leads 3-0 against Real Oviedo. Álvaro García scores with a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side.
62
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Nicolás Fonseca replaces Santiago Colombatto.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Luka Ilic comes on to replace Haissem Hassan.
60
Update Update
Santi Cazorla from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Santi Cazorla from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Dani Calvo allowed the ball to go out.
55
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
54
Update Update
Match paused due to an injury to Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Reina of Real Oviedo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
53
Update Update
Unai López from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
53
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
52
Update Update
Ilias Akhomach from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
52
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rayo Vallecano leads 2-0 against Real Oviedo. Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano successfully converts the penalty with a right-footed shot.
48
Update Update
Lucas Ahijado of Real Oviedo has given away a penalty following a foul committed inside the box.
48
Update Update
Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a penalty! Álvaro García was fouled inside the box.
47
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Andrei Ratiu from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
46
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano tries a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Dani Calvo allowed the ball to go out.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Thiago Fernández comes on to replace Ilyas Chaira.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Santi Cazorla comes on to replace Kwasi Sibo.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Rayo Vallecano 1, Real Oviedo 0.
45
Update Update
Pep Chavarría from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Rayo Vallecano leading Real Oviedo 1-0.
45
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Pep Chavarría from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Dani Calvo of Real Oviedo committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Unai López from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rayo Vallecano takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Real Oviedo. Jorge de Frutos scores with a right-footed shot from close range, sending the ball into the upper part of the net.
44
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Rayo Vallecano takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Real Oviedo. Jorge de Frutos scores with a right-footed shot from close range.
42
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
42
Update Update
Florian Lejeune committed a foul on a Rayo Vallecano player.
40
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ilyas Chaira of Real Oviedo takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Haissem Hassan.
38
Update Update
Luiz Felipe from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Federico Viñas commits a foul against Real Oviedo.
38
Update Update
Ilias Akhomach from Rayo Vallecano has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
38
Update Update
Javi López from Real Oviedo committed a foul.
37
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Andrei Ratiu from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Jorge de Frutos.
37
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Unai López from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Pedro Díaz.
36
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
36
Update Update
Pathé Ciss from Rayo Vallecano has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Update Update
Federico Viñas committed a foul against Real Oviedo.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kwasi Sibo of Real Oviedo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Update Update
Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Álvaro García from Rayo Vallecano earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
35
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo.
34
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Pedro Díaz from Rayo Vallecano took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Jorge de Frutos during a quick counterattack.
32
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lucas Ahijado.
32
Update Update
Offside call against Real Oviedo. Alberto Reina has been caught offside.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jorge de Frutos from Rayo Vallecano fires a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Andrei Ratiu.
31
Update Update
Offside call against Rayo Vallecano. Ilias Akhomach has been caught offside.
30
Update Update
Another offensive push. Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Aarón Escandell, the goalkeeper for Real Oviedo, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Unai López, who delivered a cross.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Lucas Ahijado allowed the ball to go out of play.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after David Carmo allowed the ball to go out.
28
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Lucas Ahijado allowed it to go out.
24
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Unai López from Rayo Vallecano takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Álvaro García.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
23
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo.
22
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Aarón Escandell from Real Oviedo.
20
Attempt Attempt
Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano had a great opportunity but his right-footed shot from outside the penalty area went just wide to the left. The assist came from Unai López.
17
Update Update
Ilias Akhomach from Rayo Vallecano has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
17
Update Update
Santiago Colombatto committed a foul against Real Oviedo.
12
Update Update
Unai López from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Pathé Ciss from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Florian Lejeune from Rayo Vallecano committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Haissem Hassan from Real Oviedo attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the left.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Dani Calvo allowed it to go out.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rayo Vallecano after Aarón Escandell allowed the ball to go out of play.
5
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo attempted a header from close range but couldn't convert.
5
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Ilias Akhomach from Rayo Vallecano takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Aarón Escandell, the goalkeeper for Real Oviedo, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Pathé Ciss.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rayo Vallecano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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