Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Lodz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Raków Sat, 4 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
1 – 1
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Stratos Svarnas - 90+7'
Goal
|
Goal
Fran Álvarez - 90+4'
Zoran Arsenic 36' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Lodz has officially finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. Going into the game, Raków Częstochowa were the pre-match favorites with a 44.5% implied probability of victory, compared to 26.4% for the visitors and 29.1% for a draw. Ultimately, the result represents a significant deviation from these expectations for Raków Częstochowa, who failed to secure the anticipated home victory. The match was evenly poised at a 0-0 deadlock at halftime, but a red card for Raków Częstochowa heavily distorted the second-half dynamics. Operating with a numerical disadvantage, the home side managed just 39% possession, allowing Widzew Lodz to dictate play and control the ball for 61% of the fixture. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this contest, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the draw was explicitly not aligned with the pre-match market predictions. Despite the major tactical adjustments forced by the home team's sending-off, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained in line with standard performance metrics.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Sokolnicki
P. Sokolnicki
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
F. Sierant
F. Sierant
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
A. Kozieł
A. Kozieł
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
P. Raczkowski
P. Raczkowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
VS
Widzew Lodz A. Vukovic
A. Vukovic
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 63 L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Nieciecza Rank: 51 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 64 D
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Raków Częstochowa
44.51%
Draw
29.1%
Away Widzew Lodz
26.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.96
58.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
Widzew Lodz
Power Score
67.96
58.48
League Position
5
16
Global Rank
239
515

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Widzew Lodz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Raków Częstochowa Widzew Lodz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Widzew Lodz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Widzew Lodz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.36
31.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.89
19.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Raków Częstochowa -1.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Widzew Lodz +1.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Widzew Lodz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Widzew Lodz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Raków Częstochowa Widzew Lodz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Widzew Lodz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Widzew Lodz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Widzew Lodz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Raków Częstochowa Widzew Lodz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Raków Częstochowa 0.19
Widzew Lodz 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Widzew Lodz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Raków Częstochowa 0.01
Widzew Lodz 0.03
Raków Częstochowa
Widzew Lodz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Home
7 matches
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz Away
Match Record
5
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
5
Goals
10
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
10
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Trelowski
Substitution
Poland
1 K. Trelowski
Z. Arsenić
Croatia
24 Z. Arsenić
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
P. Dawidowicz
Poland
27 P. Dawidowicz
M. Ameyaw
Poland
19 M. Ameyaw
K. Struski
Substitution
Poland
23 K. Struski
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
J. Silva Rocha
Brazil
20 J. Silva Rocha
P. Makuch
Substitution
Poland
9 P. Makuch
J. Brunes
Substitution
Norway
18 J. Brunes
I. Brusberg
Substitution
Sweden
39 I. Brusberg
B. Drągowski
Poland
1 B. Drągowski
S. Kozlovský
Slovakia
3 S. Kozlovský
R. Visus Contreras
Spain
14 R. Visus Contreras
P. Wisniewski
Poland
25 P. Wisniewski
M. Żyro
Substitution
Poland
4 M. Żyro
J. Shehu
Substitution
Albania
6 J. Shehu
L. Selahi
Albania
18 L. Selahi
F. Alvarez Rodríguez
Spain
10 F. Alvarez Rodríguez
M. Fornalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 M. Fornalczyk
A. Zeqiri
Substitution
Switzerland
9 A. Zeqiri
E. Kornvig
Denmark
8 E. Kornvig

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Raków
Capacity
11600
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Pawel Sokolnicki
Filip Sierant
Aleksander Kozieł
Paweł Raczkowski

Statistics

Possession
Raków Częstochowa
42%
Widzew Lodz
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 10
31 Dangerous attacks 69
39 Possession 61
4 Corners 5
20 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 5
81 Ball Safe 73
17 Throwins 18
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 70
2 Successful Dribbles 7
4 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 1

Attacking

92 Attacks 111
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

205 Successful Passes 389
307 Passes 472
67 Successful Passes Percentage 82
66 Long Passes 45
5 Key Passes 9
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
19 Successful Long Passes 12

Defensive

6 Interceptions 7
58 Duels Won 39
6 Tackles 5
1 Saves 2

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 31
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 20
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Kacper Trelowski
Kacper Trelowski Goalkeeper
48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych
Goalkeeper67'
24
Zoran Arsenic
Zoran Arsenic Defender
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
27
Paweł Dawidowicz
Paweł Dawidowicz Defender
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw Midfielder
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva Midfielder
23
Karol Struski
Karol Struski Midfielder
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat
Midfielder67'
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
80
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Midfielder84'
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker84'
39
Isak Brusberg
Isak Brusberg Attacker
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas
Defender38'
Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Bartlomiej Dragowski
Bartlomiej Dragowski Goalkeeper
3
Samuel Kozlovský
Samuel Kozlovský Defender
4
Mateusz Zyro
Mateusz Zyro Defender
91
Marcel Krajewski
Marcel Krajewski
Defender46'
14
Ricardo Visus
Ricardo Visus Defender
25
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Przemysław Wiśniewski Defender
6
Juljan Shehu
Juljan Shehu Midfielder
77
Ángel Baena
Ángel Baena
Midfielder77'
10
Fran Álvarez
Fran Álvarez Midfielder
18
Lindon Selahi
Lindon Selahi Midfielder
7
Mariusz Fornalczyk
Mariusz Fornalczyk Attacker
19
Bartlomiej Pawlowski
Bartlomiej Pawlowski
Midfielder90'
8
Emil Kornvig
Emil Kornvig Attacker
9
Andi Zeqiri
Andi Zeqiri Attacker
99
Sebastian Bergier
Sebastian Bergier
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+11'
Event
Bartlomiej Dragowski
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Ángel Baena
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Stratos Svarnas
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+7'
90+4'
Event
Fran Álvarez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90'
Event
Bartlomiej Pawlowski → Mariusz Fornalczyk
9th Substitution
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Jonatan Braut Brunes
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga → Patryk Makuch
7th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Aleksandar Vuković
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Ángel Baena
Penalty awarded
77'
Event
Ángel Baena → Juljan Shehu
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Ricardo Visus
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Oliwier Zych → Kacper Trelowski
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Marko Bulat → Karol Struski
4th Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Sebastian Bergier → Andi Zeqiri
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Marcel Krajewski → Mateusz Zyro
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Stratos Svarnas → Isak Brusberg
1st Substitution
38'
Event
Zoran Arsenic
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
36'
Event
Zoran Arsenic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Raków Częstochowa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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