Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Kraków Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Raków Sun, 19 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
4 Winner 1
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Patryk Makuch - 39', 60'
Jonatan Braut Brunes - 45' (P)
Leonardo Rocha - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Dijon Kameri - 50'
|
Red Card Amir Al-Ammari 45'

CONTEXT

Raków Częstochowa claimed a decisive 4-1 home victory over Cracovia Kraków, underlining their dominance in the encounter. They established a 2-0 lead by halftime through clinical finishing and superior control, never relinquishing their advantage. With 61% possession, Raków dictated play, while Cracovia's task grew harder after a second-half red card reduced them to ten men. The home side capitalized, adding two more goals to secure the win. This result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1%, aligning closely with pre-match assessments where Raków were the stronger team. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome matched market probabilities. No xG data is available for chance quality evaluation, but possession and events suggest comprehensive control. The red card introduced second-half distortion, yet Raków adapted effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation of 2.1% recorded for Raków Częstochowa.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, alignment undetermined.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Away red card altered match dynamics in second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Cracovia caused second-half distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Marciniak
S. Marciniak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Kupsik
A. Kupsik
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
B. Heinig
B. Heinig
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Kozieł
A. Kozieł
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
VS
Cracovia Kraków L. Elsner
L. Elsner
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Katowice Rank: W
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Raków Częstochowa
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Cracovia Kraków
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.27
18.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
Cracovia Kraków
Power Score
21.27
18.33
League Position
6
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Raków Częstochowa Cracovia Kraków

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.34
63.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
63.72
24.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Raków Częstochowa -3.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Cracovia Kraków +3.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Cracovia Kraków
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Raków Częstochowa Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Cracovia Kraków
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Cracovia Kraków
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Raków Częstochowa Cracovia Kraków
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Raków Częstochowa 0.08
Cracovia Kraków 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Cracovia Kraków
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Raków Częstochowa 0.01
Cracovia Kraków 0.03
Raków Częstochowa
Cracovia Kraków
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Cracovia Kraków had peak pressure around 57'.
  • Cracovia Kraków started the game with stronger pressure.
Raków Częstochowa Pressure Cracovia Kraków Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Cracovia Kraków reached the top pressure at 57' (73.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Home
13 matches
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
9
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:02:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
O. Zych
Poland
48 O. Zych
P. Dawidowicz
Substitution
Poland
27 P. Dawidowicz
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
E. Svarnas
Greece
4 E. Svarnas
F. Tudor
Substitution
Croatia
7 F. Tudor
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
M. Bulat
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
J. Silva Rocha
Brazil
20 J. Silva Rocha
I. Brusberg
Substitution
Sweden
39 I. Brusberg
J. Brunes
Substitution
Norway
18 J. Brunes
P. Makuch
Poland
9 P. Makuch
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
M. Perković
Croatia
39 M. Perković
B. Šutalo
Croatia
21 B. Šutalo
G. Henriksson
Sweden
4 G. Henriksson
O. Wójcik
Substitution
Poland
66 O. Wójcik
D. Piła
Substitution
Poland
79 D. Piła
P. Sans Lopez
Substitution
Spain
11 P. Sans Lopez
A. Al-Ammari
Sweden
6 A. Al-Ammari
M. Klich
Substitution
Poland
43 M. Klich
A. Hasić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić
D. Kameri
Substitution
Austria
70 D. Kameri

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Raków
Capacity
11600
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Szymon Marciniak
Adam Kupsik
Bartosz Heinig
Aleksander Kozieł

Statistics

Possession
Raków Częstochowa
57%
Cracovia Kraków
43%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 9
117 Dangerous attacks 117
61 Possession 39
2 Corners 7
16 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 11
8 Goal Kicks 2
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 82
9 Throwins 11
6 Goal Attempts 9
9 Successful Dribbles 9
140 Ball Safe 91
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0

Attacking

204 Attacks 147
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 77
558 Passes 345
491 Successful Passes 265
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
43 Long Passes 56
15 Successful Long Passes 20
7 Key Passes 8

Defensive

46 Duels Won 41
5 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 5
6 Tackles 12

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 23
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych Goalkeeper
6.78
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas Defender
7.06
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
6.81
27
Paweł Dawidowicz
Paweł Dawidowicz Defender
6.87
2
Ariel Mosor
Ariel Mosor
Defender46'
6.72
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
6.97
22
Abraham Ojo
Abraham Ojo
Midfielder82'
6.58
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
6.85
7
Fran Tudor
Fran Tudor Midfielder
7.07
11
Adriano
Adriano
Midfielder62'
6.76
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva Midfielder
6.92
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
2
6.88
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
7.09
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker82'
6.76
39
Isak Brusberg
Isak Brusberg Attacker
6.7
8
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko
Midfielder62'
6.75
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Gustav Henriksson
Gustav Henriksson Defender
6.79
21
Bosko Sutalo
Bosko Sutalo Defender
6.74
39
Mauro Perkovic
Mauro Perkovic Defender
7.03
66
Oskar Wojcik
Oskar Wojcik Defender
7.07
61
Brahim Traoré
Brahim Traoré
Defender71'
6.78
79
Dominik Pila
Dominik Pila Defender
6.73
19
Mateusz Tabisz
Mateusz Tabisz
Midfielder82'
6.51
6
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
6.89
11
Pau Sans
Pau Sans Midfielder
6.73
20
Karol Knap
Karol Knap
Midfielder71'
6.55
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Midfielder
6.97
43
Mateusz Klich
Mateusz Klich Midfielder
6.95
29
Jean Batoum
Jean Batoum
Attacker72'
6.38
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri Attacker
6.62
7
Mateusz Praszelik
Mateusz Praszelik
Midfielder62'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leonardo Rocha
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
90'
Event
Gustav Henriksson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Jonatan Braut Brunes
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Abraham Ojo → Marko Bulat
8th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Mateusz Tabisz → Dominik Pila
10th Substitution
72'
Event
Jean Batoum → Mateusz Klich
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Brahim Traoré → Oskar Wojcik
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Karol Knap → Pau Sans
5th Substitution
Event
Tomasz Pienko → Isak Brusberg
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Adriano → Fran Tudor
2nd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Mateusz Praszelik → Dijon Kameri
4th Substitution
Event
Patryk Makuch
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
60'
Event
Isak Brusberg
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
57'
50'
Event
Dijon Kameri
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ariel Mosor → Paweł Dawidowicz
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
45'
45'
Event
Amir Al-Ammari
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
44'
Event
Amir Al-Ammari
Card adjusted
43'
Event
Bosko Sutalo
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Patryk Makuch
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
39'

CONCLUSION

Raków Częstochowa's 4-1 win over Cracovia Kraków exemplified their superiority, with a 2-0 halftime lead and 61% possession reflecting total control. The away red card in the second half distorted proceedings, but Raków exploited the advantage to extend their lead convincingly. Minimal 2.1% structural deviation and efficiency in line with norms confirmed a predictable result aligned with market views. Lacking xG data limits shot quality insights, yet scoreline, possession, and events paint a clear picture of dominance. This performance bolsters Raków's standing and sets a strong tone for upcoming challenges.

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