PSV vs AZ Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Philips Stadion Sat, 7 Mar - 7:00 PM
Eredivisie
PSV PSV
2 Winner 1
AZ AZ
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 7:00 PM
Troy Parrott - 45' (Own Goal)
Ricardo Pepi - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Billy van Duijl - 13'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. PSV 1–1 AZ. The match ended in a draw. PSV showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 64%–36%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: PSV showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. van der Eijk
S. van der Eijk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
S. de Groot
S. de Groot
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
R. Bluemink
R. Bluemink
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
S. Teuben
S. Teuben
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
PSV P. Bosz
P. Bosz
VS
AZ L. Echteld
L. Echteld
2.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.37
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Feyenoord Rank: W
NAC Breda Rank: D
Fortuna Sittard Rank: W
Excelsior Rank: W
FC Utrecht Rank: W
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ajax Rank: D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: L
Telstar Rank: W
Excelsior Rank: D
PEC Zwolle Rank: L
FC Volendam Rank: W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PSV
67.25%
Draw
18.19%
Away AZ
14.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.18
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PSV
AZ
Power Score
87.18
50
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PSV — Opponent-weighted form score
AZ — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PSV AZ

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

PSV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AZ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

PSV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AZ
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.33
37.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.64
31.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
PSV -0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
AZ +0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
PSV
AZ
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

PSV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AZ
Created Set-piece attacking threat
PSV AZ
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
PSV AZ
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
PSV
AZ
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PSV PSV Home
11 matches
AZ AZ Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
25
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:13:52+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadium
Philips Stadion
Capacity
36500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sander van der Eijk
Stefan de Groot
Rens Bluemink
Stan Teuben

Statistics

Possession
PSV
60%
AZ
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 1
21 Dangerous attacks 11
64 Possession 36
5 Corners 6
4 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

76 Ball Safe 72
5 Goal Attempts 4
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
20 Dribble Attempts 14
13 Throwins 18
23 Successful Headers 11
5 Goal Kicks 9
13 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 1
2 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

111 Attacks 77
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

580 Passes 337
40 Long Passes 65
19 Successful Long Passes 24
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
513 Successful Passes 255
16 Key Passes 12
88 Successful Passes Percentage 76

Defensive

5 Interceptions 12
4 Saves 7
14 Tackles 16

Build-up

38 Total Crosses 14
13 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 4
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Couhaib Driouech
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Myron Boadu → Ricardo Pepi
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Couhaib Driouech → Ivan Perišić
7th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Jizz Hornkamp → Ro-Zangelo Daal
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Mexx Meerdink → Troy Parrott
9th Substitution
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Esmir Bajraktarevic → Dennis Man
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Ryan Flamingo → Paul Wanner
5th Substitution
75'
63'
Event
Denso Kasius → Elijah Dijkstra
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Ayoub Oufkir → Isak Jensen
3rd Substitution
Event
Anass Salah-Eddine → Sergiño Dest
1st Substitution
57'
50'
Event
Alexandre Penetra
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Troy Parrott
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
45'
13'
Event
Billy van Duijl
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: PSV Eindhoven 2, AZ 1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds. Ayoub Oufkir from AZ takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Matej Kovár of PSV Eindhoven, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Sven Mijnans.
90
Update Update
Mees de Wit from AZ committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Kiliann Sildillia of PSV Eindhoven has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Couhaib Driouech from PSV Eindhoven has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Update Update
Couhaib Driouech from PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Ayoub Oufkir from AZ has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AZ: Jizz Hornkamp comes on to replace Ro-Zangelo Daal.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AZ: Mexx Meerdink comes on to replace Troy Parrott.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Myron Boadu comes on to replace Ricardo Pepi.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Couhaib Driouech replaces Ivan Perisic.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! PSV Eindhoven takes the lead 2-1 against AZ. Ricardo Pepi scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, sending the ball high into the net. The assist comes from Ivan Perisic, who set him up with a header.
84
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Denso Kasius from AZ takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Matej Kovár from PSV Eindhoven makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Mees de Wit.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PSV Eindhoven after Ayoub Oufkir allowed the ball to go out of play.
80
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ivan Perisic of PSV Eindhoven took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar after a quick counterattack.
80
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move underway. Ricardo Pepi from PSV Eindhoven takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Esmir Bajraktarevic of AZ.
80
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ricardo Pepi of PSV Eindhoven has been shown a yellow card.
79
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Wouter Goes from AZ.
78
Update Update
Wouter Goes from AZ has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Update Update
Joey Veerman of PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Ryan Flamingo comes on to replace Paul Wanner.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Esmir Bajraktarevic is coming on to replace Dennis Man.
74
Update Update
Ro-Zangelo Daal from AZ was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Kiliann Sildillia from PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AZ after Armando Obispo's foul.
72
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AZ after a foul by Anass Salah-Eddine.
72
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Denso Kasius from AZ fired a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Peer Koopmeiners.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Ricardo Pepi from PSV Eindhoven attempted a right-footed shot from close range, but it sailed high and to the right. The assist came from Ivan Perisic, who delivered a cross.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ivan Perisic from PSV Eindhoven takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
66
Update Update
Denso Kasius from AZ committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Anass Salah-Eddine from PSV Eindhoven has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Denso Kasius from AZ takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Peer Koopmeiners.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AZ after Joey Veerman allowed the ball to go out.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sven Mijnans from AZ fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
64
Update Update
Wouter Goes from AZ has earned a free kick on the right flank.
64
Update Update
Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AZ: Denso Kasius replaces Elijah Dijkstra.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AZ: Ayoub Oufkir comes on to replace Isak Jensen.
62
Update Update
Another offensive effort unfolds. Paul Wanner of PSV Eindhoven heads the ball from the middle of the box, but the goalkeeper, Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Ivan Perisic, who delivered a cross.
61
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Troy Parrott of AZ attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area. However, his effort is thwarted by PSV Eindhoven's goalkeeper, Matej Kovár, who makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist comes from Billy van Duijl, who delivered a well-placed cross.
60
Update Update
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Ricardo Pepi from PSV Eindhoven attempts a header from the middle of the box, but the goalkeeper, Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Ivan Perisic, who delivered a cross into the area.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven had a shot from the center of the box but couldn't find the target. The assist came from Ivan Perisic, who delivered a cross.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PSV Eindhoven after a play that resulted in a deflection off Mees de Wit.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Anass Salah-Eddine comes on to replace Sergiño Dest due to an injury.
57
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
56
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Sergiño Dest from PSV Eindhoven.
55
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Isak Jensen from AZ took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area that just missed the target. The assist came from Peer Koopmeiners during a quick counterattack.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexandre Penetra from AZ has been shown a yellow card.
45
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Ivan Perisic from PSV Eindhoven takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the top left corner by Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Wouter Goes from AZ.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Troy Parrott of AZ accidentally scored an own goal, bringing the score to PSV Eindhoven 1, AZ 1.
45
Update Update
Another offensive move unfolds. Armando Obispo from PSV Eindhoven heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but the attempt is stopped in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Joey Veerman, who delivered a precise cross.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between PSV Eindhoven and AZ.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between PSV Eindhoven and AZ.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PSV Eindhoven after a play that resulted in a deflection off Elijah Dijkstra.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AZ after Kiliann Sildillia was unable to prevent the ball from going out.
40
Update Update
Sven Mijnans from AZ earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
40
Update Update
Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Dennis Man of PSV Eindhoven attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Ivan Perisic, who delivered a cross.
37
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jerdy Schouten of PSV Eindhoven attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal.
36
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jerdy Schouten.
35
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
34
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Ricardo Pepi from PSV Eindhoven fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's intercepted.
33
Update Update
Paul Wanner from PSV Eindhoven has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Peer Koopmeiners of AZ.
32
Update Update
Offside call against AZ. Isak Jensen is caught in an offside position.
29
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Paul Wanner from PSV Eindhoven took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Ricardo Pepi, who set him up with a header.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AZ after a play that resulted in a deflection off Matej Kovár.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AZ after a play that resulted in a deflection off Matej Kovár.
22
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Peer Koopmeiners from AZ takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Matej Kovár from PSV Eindhoven makes a crucial save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist was provided by Sven Mijnans.
21
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Ricardo Pepi from PSV Eindhoven takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box. However, the effort is thwarted by the goalkeeper, Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Ismael Saibari.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AZ after Ivan Perisic allowed the ball to go out.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Elijah Dijkstra from AZ fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Troy Parrott from AZ takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Mees de Wit.
17
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ro-Zangelo Daal from AZ attempts a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Peer Koopmeiners.
15
Update Update
Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Elijah Dijkstra from AZ has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! AZ takes the lead against PSV Eindhoven, 1-0. Billy van Duijl scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Isak Jensen.
12
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Sven Mijnans from AZ attempted a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Elijah Dijkstra.
11
Update Update
Kiliann Sildillia from PSV Eindhoven committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Ro-Zangelo Daal from AZ has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PSV Eindhoven after a play that resulted in a deflection off Billy van Duijl.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PSV Eindhoven after Mees de Wit allowed the ball to go out.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PSV Eindhoven after Mees de Wit allowed the ball to go out.
4
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Paul Wanner from PSV Eindhoven takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the left corner by Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ. The assist came from Sergiño Dest, who delivered a precise cross.
3
Update Update
Troy Parrott committed a foul against AZ.
3
Update Update
Armando Obispo from PSV Eindhoven was awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: PSV exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie View all league clusters