Polissya Zhytomyr vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Mon, 9 Mar - 12:14 AM
Premier League
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
1 Winner 2
Dynamo Kyiv DYN
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 12:14 AM
Oleksiy Gutsulyak - 40' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Matviy Ponomarenko - 45+2', 60'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Polissya Zhytomyr 0–1 Dynamo Kyiv. The result saw Dynamo Kyiv take the points. Dynamo Kyiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dynamo Kyiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Berkut
O. Berkut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Nikolai Balakin
Nikolai Balakin
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
V. Matyash
V. Matyash
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
M. Firsov
M. Firsov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.94
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
VS
Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: W
Karpaty Rank: W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Veres Rank: W
Kudrivka Rank: W
SK Poltava Rank: L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Polissya Zhytomyr
38.03%
Draw
30.11%
Away Dynamo Kyiv
31.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Polissya Zhytomyr
-0.67%
Draw
-0.07%
Dynamo Kyiv
+0.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.16
61.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Polissya Zhytomyr
Dynamo Kyiv
Power Score
63.16
61.4
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Polissya Zhytomyr Dynamo Kyiv

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
6.42
15.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.74
6.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Polissya Zhytomyr -0.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Kyiv +0.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Dynamo Kyiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Polissya Zhytomyr Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Polissya Zhytomyr Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Polissya Zhytomyr
Dynamo Kyiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Home
5 matches
Dynamo Kyiv DYN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
5
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:14:29+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 12:14 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity
5928
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksandr Berkut
Nikolai Balakin
Viktor Matyash
Maksim Firsov

Statistics

Possession
Polissya Zhytomyr
51%
DYN
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Shots 4
28 Dangerous attacks 28
53 Possession 47
8 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 3
1 Penalties 0
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

44 Attacks 38

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giorgi Maisuradze → Oleksandr Nazarenko
8th Substitution
83'
Event
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Volodymyr Shepelev → Lindon Emërllahu
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Eduardo Guerrero → Matviy Ponomarenko
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Mykola Mykhaylenko → Mykola Shaparenko
5th Substitution
Event
Mykola Gayduchyk → Igor Krasnopir
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Oleg Fedor → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Ilir Krasniqi → Ruslan Babenko
4th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Oleksandr Tymchyk → Oleksandr Karavaev
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
1st Yellowcard
Event
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Penalty / 1st Penalty
40'
Event
Lindon Emërllahu
Var
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dynamo Kyiv exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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