Pogoń Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Mon, 6 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
0 Winner 2
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mileta Rajović - 32', 46'

CONTEXT

The match between Pogoń Szczecin and Legia Warszawa has finished, with the visiting side claiming a decisive 2-0 victory. Legia Warszawa established their advantage early on, taking a 1-0 lead into the half-time break before cementing their win with a second goal after the restart. This result went against pre-match expectations. The betting market slightly favored the hosts, giving Pogoń Szczecin a 38.1% win probability, while Legia Warszawa sat at 35.2% and a draw at 26.8%. Because of this slight upset, the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market, resulting in a significant deviation of 64.8% delivered by the eventual winners, Legia Warszawa. Despite the defeat, Pogoń Szczecin saw more of the ball, holding 58% of the possession compared to Legia's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome aligned with underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was reported to be in line with standard play dynamics. The match also concluded cleanly without any red cards being issued, meaning major disciplinary events did not artificially impact the final scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Myć
W. Myć
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
D. Golis
D. Golis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Kostrzewa
M. Kostrzewa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.68
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
VS
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 60 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 W
Katowice Rank: 64 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 7 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pogoń Szczecin
38.05%
Draw
26.8%
Away Legia Warszawa
35.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.55
64.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
61.55
64.29
League Position
14
15
Global Rank
423
334

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.53
30.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.95
28.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pogoń Szczecin -0.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa +0.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pogoń Szczecin
vs
Legia Warszawa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pogoń Szczecin 0.27
Legia Warszawa 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pogoń Szczecin 0.03
Legia Warszawa 0.00
Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Home
37 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Away
Match Record
10
Wins
20
7
Draws
7
20
Losses
10
Goals
38
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
38
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Borges da Silva
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
D. Lončar
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
B. Mendy
Substitution
France
23 B. Mendy
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
K. Acosta
Substitution
United States
3 K. Acosta
K. Grosicki
Substitution
Poland
11 K. Grosicki
S. Greenwood
Substitution
England
90 S. Greenwood
P. Mukairu
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
K. Angielski
Substitution
Poland
24 K. Angielski
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
R. Pankov
Substitution
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
D. Szymański
Poland
44 D. Szymański
V. Bichakhchyan
Substitution
Armenia
21 V. Bichakhchyan
P. Wszołek
Poland
7 P. Wszołek
R. Adamski
Poland
9 R. Adamski
M. Rajovic
Substitution
Denmark
29 M. Rajovic

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity
18027
Attendance
20602
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wojciech Myć
Dawid Igor Golis
Mikołaj Kostrzewa

Statistics

Possession
Pogoń Szczecin
55%
Legia Warszawa
45%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 6
9 Shots 0
51 Dangerous attacks 60
58 Possession 42
4 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Goal Attempts 7
1 Injuries 4
57 Ball Safe 48
10 Throwins 24
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
19 Dribble Attempts 18
11 Successful Dribbles 11
7 Goal Kicks 5
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 5
73 Attacks 69

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 16
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
80 Successful Passes Percentage 74
51 Long Passes 48
362 Successful Passes 234
452 Passes 316
11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

56 Duels Won 53
5 Interceptions 14
15 Tackles 16
4 Saves 1

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
14 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
6 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
23
Benjamin Mendy
Benjamin Mendy Defender
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender46'
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic
Attacker58'
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki Midfielder
30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Midfielder84'
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
90
Sam Greenwood
Sam Greenwood Midfielder
25
M. Agger
M. Agger
Attacker73'
24
Karol Angielski
Karol Angielski Attacker
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa
Midfielder46'
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
55
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender86'
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Midfielder
21
Vahan Bichakhchyan
Vahan Bichakhchyan Midfielder
82
Kacper Urbanski
Kacper Urbanski
Midfielder60'
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Midfielder
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender86'
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
2
77
Ermal Krasniqi
Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker90+3'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Leonardo Koutris
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+5'
90+3'
Event
Ermal Krasniqi → Mileta Rajović
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Artur Jedrzejczyk → Radovan Pankov
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
8th Substitution
Event
Jacek Samuel Czapliński → Kamil Grosicki
6th Substitution
84'
Event
M. Agger → Sam Greenwood
5th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Kacper Urbanski
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
60'
Event
Kacper Urbanski → Vahan Bichakhchyan
4th Substitution
Event
Filip Cuic → Kellyn Acosta
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
N. Lawa → Karol Angielski
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Benjamin Mendy
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Mileta Rajović
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Mileta Rajović
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Legia Warszawa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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