Paris vs Brest Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Jean Bouin Sun, 3 May - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Paris PFC
4 Winner 0
Brest B29
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Luca Koleosho - 89'
Rudy Matondo - 67', 13'
Willem Geubbels - 20'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Paris delivered a dominant 4-0 home win against Brest, establishing a 2-0 lead by halftime and adding two more goals after the break. Possession was tightly contested at 51% for Paris and 49% for Brest, reflecting a balanced battle in territory but a clear disparity in clinical finishing. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half tactical adjustments were required from either side. Despite Brest entering as the stronger team per assessments, Paris capitalized fully on their opportunities, resulting in a significant 50% structural deviation from expectations. The market viewed Paris as slight favorites pre-match, and this outcome aligned closely with those projections. With xG data unavailable, deeper chance quality analysis remains pending, but the scoreline underscores Paris's efficiency in front of goal.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match resulted in a 50% significant structural deviation favoring Paris.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Paris's victory aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without recorded data.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments altered the match's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Bollengier

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Y. Boutry

2nd Assistant

A. Ustaritz

4th Official

T. Luczynski

1st Assistant

Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
VS
Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 81 W
Lorient Rank: 75 D
Le Havre Rank: 68 W
Strasbourg Rank: 78 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 82 D
Nantes Rank: 64 D
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Auxerre Rank: 70 L
Monaco Rank: 80 L
Le Havre Rank: 68 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris
49.96%
Draw
25.52%
Away Brest
24.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris
-47.64%
Draw
+23.61%
Brest
+24.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.85
72.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris
Brest
Power Score
60.85
72.77
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
141
142

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris — Opponent-weighted form score
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Brest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.63
22.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.76
38.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris — Efficiency Index
vs
Brest — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
Brest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Brest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Brest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
Brest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris
vs
Brest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Brest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris 0.31
Brest 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Brest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris 0.00
Brest 0.07
Paris
Brest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PFC had peak pressure around 21'.
  • PFC started the game with stronger pressure.
PFC Pressure B29 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PFC reached the top pressure at 21' (79.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris PFC Home
1 matches
Brest B29 Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
K. Trapp
Germany
35 K. Trapp
H. Traoré
Substitution
Mali
14 H. Traoré
D. Coppola
Italy
42 D. Coppola
M. Mbow
Senegal
5 M. Mbow
N. Sangui
France
19 N. Sangui
M. Munetsi
Zimbabwe
18 M. Munetsi
R. Matondo
Substitution
23 R. Matondo
N. Ikoné
Substitution
France
93 N. Ikoné
I. Kebbal
Substitution
Algeria
10 I. Kebbal
M. Simon
Nigeria
27 M. Simon
W. Geubbels
Substitution
France
9 W. Geubbels
Pitch
G. Coudert
France
30 G. Coudert
T. Zogbe
Ivory Coast
12 T. Zogbe
R. Le Guen
71 R. Le Guen
B. Chardonnet
France
5 B. Chardonnet
K. Lala
France
77 K. Lala
J. Chotard
Substitution
France
13 J. Chotard
R. Labeau Lascary
Substitution
France
14 R. Labeau Lascary
H. Magnetti
Substitution
France
8 H. Magnetti
L. Tousart
Substitution
France
24 L. Tousart
R. Del Castillo
Substitution
France
10 R. Del Castillo
L. Ajorque
France
19 L. Ajorque

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Jean Bouin
Capacity :
15097
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marc Bollengier
Yannick Boutry
Anthony Ustaritz
Thomas Luczynski

Statistics

Possession
PFC
52%
B29
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 5
54 Dangerous attacks 23
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Goal Attempts 8
62 Ball Safe 66
10 Successful Dribbles 9
2 Assists 0
30 Throwins 15
16 Dribble Attempts 19
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
9 Goal Kicks 6
8 Successful Headers 14
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

94 Attacks 79
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

365 Successful Passes 342
431 Passes 408
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
14 Key Passes 9
16 Successful Long Passes 21
85 Successful Passes Percentage 84
39 Long Passes 46

Defensive

42 Duels Won 47
17 Tackles 14
1 Saves 4
11 Interceptions 10

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marc Bollengier

Starting XI ▼

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
6.87
5
Moustapha Mbow
Moustapha Mbow Defender
6.93
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré Defender
6.64
2
Tuomas Ollila
Tuomas Ollila
Defender85'
6.42
19
Nhoa Sangui
Nhoa Sangui Defender
6.65
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
6.85
10
Ilan Kebbal
Ilan Kebbal Midfielder
7.43
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez
Midfielder65'
6.97
18
Marshall Munetsi
Marshall Munetsi Midfielder
6.79
23
Rudy Matondo
Rudy Matondo Midfielder
2
6.5
4
Vincent Marchetti
Vincent Marchetti
Midfielder77'
6.72
27
Moses Simon
Moses Simon Midfielder
6.77
93
Jonathan Ikoné
Jonathan Ikoné Midfielder
6.76
36
Ciro Immobile
Ciro Immobile
Attacker77'
6.93
9
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels Attacker
6.63
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho
Attacker65'
6.78
Referee : Marc Bollengier

Starting XI ▼

30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
6.85
5
Brendan Chardonnet
Brendan Chardonnet Defender
7.04
12
Luck Zogbé
Luck Zogbé Defender
6.75
71
R. Le Guen
R. Le Guen Defender
6.52
77
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala Defender
6.69
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti Midfielder
6.81
23
Kamory Doumbia
Kamory Doumbia
Midfielder70'
6.94
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
6.95
17
Mama Baldé
Mama Baldé
Attacker71'
6.76
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
6.88
99
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup
Attacker83'
6.5
14
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Rémy Labeau Lascary Midfielder
6.67
7
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Midfielder60'
6.6
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart Midfielder
6.6
33
Hamidou Makalou
Hamidou Makalou
Midfielder60'
6.52
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
7.19

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luca Koleosho
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Tuomas Ollila → Hamari Traoré
10th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Pathé Mboup → Joris Chotard
9th Substitution
Event
Ciro Immobile → Jonathan Ikoné
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Vincent Marchetti → Rudy Matondo
8th Substitution
77'
71'
Event
Mama Baldé → Romain Del Castillo
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Kamory Doumbia → Hugo Magnetti
5th Substitution
Event
Rudy Matondo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
67'
Event
Luca Koleosho → Willem Geubbels
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Maxime Lopez → Ilan Kebbal
4th Substitution
65'
60'
Event
Junior Dina Ebimbe → Rémy Labeau Lascary
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Hamidou Makalou → Lucas Tousart
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Moustapha Mbow
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
35'
26'
Event
Brendan Chardonnet
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Hamari Traoré
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Willem Geubbels
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
20'
Event
Rudy Matondo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tuomas Ollila takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Update Update
Goal! Luca Koleosho scores, making it 4-0.
86
Attempt Attempt
Pathe Mboup takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Tuomas Ollila comes on for Hamari Traore.
83
Substitution Substitution
Pathe Mboup is substituted for Joris Chotard.
82
Attempt Attempt
Joris Chotard takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Mama Samba Balde takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Substitution Substitution
Ciro Immobile is substituted off for Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone.
77
Update Update
Vincent Marchetti replaces Rudy Matondo.
71
Update Update
Mama Samba Balde comes on for Romain Del Castillo.
70
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Le Guen takes a header but misses the shot.
70
Update Update
Kamory Doumbia replaces Hugo Magnetti.
67
Attempt Attempt
Rudy Matondo scores with a right-footed shot.
67
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Diego Coppola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Maxime Baila Lopez comes on for Ilan Kebbal.
65
Update Update
Luca Koleosho comes on for Willem Geubbels.
60
Update Update
Hamidou Makalou replaces Lucas Tousart.
60
Update Update
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe is on, and Remy Labeau Lascary is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Remy Labeau Lascary takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ilan Kebbal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Tousart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Moses Simon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Romain Del Castillo's left-footed shot is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Moses Simon takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Luc Zogbe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Le Guen attempts a header but misses the shot.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mamadou Mbow receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Mbow attempts a header but misses the shot.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brendan Chardonnet receives a yellow card.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hamari Traore receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
19
Attempt Attempt
Moses Simon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Rudy Matondo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
13
Attempt Attempt
Rudy Matondo takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
Attempt Attempt
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Moses Simon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Rudy Matondo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Paris's 4-0 triumph over Brest highlighted their superior conversion rate in a possession-even contest, building on a solid halftime foundation. The absence of red cards kept the game pure, allowing Paris to methodically extend their lead without interruption. This significant deviation underscores how Paris exceeded benchmarks despite Brest's perceived strength, aligning with market views that positioned them ahead. Efficiency held steady, though missing xG limits full chance evaluation. Brest's inability to convert near-parity possession into threats exposed defensive frailties, while Paris's finishing proved decisive in securing a comprehensive result.

Paris vs Brest preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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