Anderlecht vs Sint-Truiden Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park Thu, 21 May - 6:30 PM
Pro League
Anderlecht ADL
3 Winner 1
Sint-Truiden SIT
Full Time Thu, 21 May 6:30 PM
Round 9 Championship Round
Adriano Bertaccini - 90+2'
Danylo Sikan - 45+2', 20'
Goal
|
Goal
Abdoulaye Sissako - 77'

CONTEXT

Anderlecht hosted Sint-Truiden in a match that concluded with a 3-1 final score. Sint-Truiden entered as the stronger side yet trailed 2-0 at halftime after Anderlecht capitalized on early opportunities. Sint-Truiden held 60 percent possession across the contest while Anderlecht operated with 40 percent. The home side added a third goal after the interval to seal the result. A significant 48 percent deviation was recorded in favor of Anderlecht. No red cards were shown to players from either team. The outcome remained consistent with the pre-match market alignment despite the noted performance deviation. Sint-Truiden created chances through sustained possession but failed to overcome the halftime deficit.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Anderlecht recorded a significant 48 percent structural deviation from pre-match expectations in the 3-1 victory.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed match dynamics and final scoreline.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with pre-match market indicators despite the performance deviation.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not defined due to the absence of expected goals metrics.
  • Event impact: The 2-0 halftime lead directly shaped the progression to the 3-1 final score.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards for both teams produced no disciplinary distortion in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Laforge

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Conotte

1st Assistant

Belgium

V. Divincenzo

2nd Assistant

Belgium

A. Letellier

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.79
Yellow cards / match 3.31
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.32
Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
VS
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: 69 D
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 85 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 86 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Anderlecht Rank: 74 W
Gent Rank: 72 D
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Anderlecht
51.98%
Draw
24.62%
Away Sint-Truiden
23.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
Anderlecht
-38.87%
Draw
+15.95%
Sint-Truiden
+22.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.8
76.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht
Sint-Truiden
Power Score
73.8
76.81
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
141
92

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Anderlecht Sint-Truiden

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
56.63
26.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.25
56.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Anderlecht +2.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Sint-Truiden -2.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Sint-Truiden
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Anderlecht ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Anderlecht
vs
Sint-Truiden
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Anderlecht Sint-Truiden
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Anderlecht 0.38
Sint-Truiden 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Anderlecht Sint-Truiden
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Anderlecht 0.01
Sint-Truiden 0.06
Anderlecht
Sint-Truiden
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ADL had peak pressure around 78'.
  • SIT started the game with stronger pressure.
ADL Pressure SIT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ADL reached the top pressure at 78' (67.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Anderlecht ADL Home
36 matches
Sint-Truiden SIT Away
Match Record
22
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
22
Goals
70
Goals Scored
40
40
Goals Conceded
70
+30
Goal Difference
-30

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:03:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Coosemans
Belgium
26 C. Coosemans
I. Camara
Substitution
Belgium
7 I. Camara
L. Hey
Denmark
3 L. Hey
M. Kana
Belgium
55 M. Kana
A. Maamar
Belgium
79 A. Maamar
N. Saliba
Canada
13 N. Saliba
N. De Cat
Substitution
74 N. De Cat
Y. Verschaeren
Substitution
Belgium
10 Y. Verschaeren
C. Huerta Valera
Substitution
Mexico
21 C. Huerta Valera
D. Sikan
Substitution
Ukraine
14 D. Sikan
T. Degreef
Belgium
83 T. Degreef
Pitch
M. Lendfers
Belgium
21 M. Lendfers
J. Pupe
Belgium
23 J. Pupe
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 V. Musliu
L. Mbe Soh
France
4 L. Mbe Soh
R. Vanwesemael
Substitution
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
A. Sissako
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Merlen
Substitution
France
14 R. Merlen
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
R. Yamamoto
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
A. Muja
Substitution
Albania
7 A. Muja
S. Shinkawa
Substitution
99 S. Shinkawa

General Information

Date & Time :
May 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 9 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Lotto Park
Capacity :
21500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nicolas Laforge
Laurent Conotte
Vito Divincenzo
Anthony Letellier

Statistics

Possession
ADL
42%
SIT
58%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 75
40 Possession 60
8 Corners 9
12 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
9 Dribble Attempts 17
6 Successful Dribbles 14
2 Assists 1
54 Ball Safe 75
3 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 9
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 82
18 Throwins 17
10 Goal Kicks 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

83 Attacks 119
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 85
47 Long Passes 56
19 Successful Long Passes 30
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
15 Key Passes 10
340 Passes 524
260 Successful Passes 444

Defensive

53 Duels Won 53
10 Interceptions 13
18 Tackles 10
2 Saves 4

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 25
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

11 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans Goalkeeper
3
Lucas Hey
Lucas Hey Defender
7
Ilay Camara
Ilay Camara Defender
54
Killian Sardella
Killian Sardella
Defender14'
55
Marco Kana
Marco Kana Defender
79
Ali Maamar
Ali Maamar Defender
10
Yari Verschaeren
Yari Verschaeren Midfielder
91
Adriano Bertaccini
Adriano Bertaccini
Attacker83'
13
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Nathan-Dylan Saliba Midfielder
74
Nathan De Cat
Nathan De Cat Midfielder
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson
Defender83'
14
Danylo Sikan
Danylo Sikan Attacker
2
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard
Midfielder64'
21
César Huerta
César Huerta Attacker
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana
Midfielder64'
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef Attacker
Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

21
Matt Lendfers
Matt Lendfers Goalkeeper
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh Defender
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe Defender
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu Defender
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
18
Simen Juklerød
Simen Juklerød
Defender87'
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7
Arbnor Muja
Arbnor Muja Midfielder
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker46'
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto
Attacker72'
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen Midfielder
22
Wolke Janssens
Wolke Janssens
Defender72'
99
Shion Shinkawa
Shion Shinkawa Attacker
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker58'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Simen Juklerød
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Adriano Bertaccini
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+2'
Event
Enric Llansana
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
87'
Event
Simen Juklerød → Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
10th Substitution
Event
Killian Sardella
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Adriano Bertaccini → Yari Verschaeren
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Ludwig Augustinsson → Nathan De Cat
8th Substitution
83'
77'
Event
Abdoulaye Sissako
Header / 3rd Goal
72'
Event
Keisuke Goto → Ilias Sebaoui
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Wolke Janssens → Ryan Merlen
7th Substitution
Event
Thorgan Hazard → Danylo Sikan
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Enric Llansana → César Huerta
5th Substitution
64'
58'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Shion Shinkawa
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Arbnor Muja
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Danylo Sikan
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+2'
Event
Danylo Sikan
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
20'
Event
Killian Sardella → Ilay Camara
1st Substitution
14'
4'
Event
Arbnor Muja
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Bertaccini takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kaito Matsuzawa took a right-footed shot but missed.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Bertaccini takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kaito Matsuzawa's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Update Update
Simen Juklerod is on, and Robert-Jan Vanwesemael is off.
83
Update Update
Adriano Bertaccini is on, and Yari Verschaeren is off.
83
Update Update
Adriano Bertaccini replaces Yari Verschaeren.
82
Attempt Attempt
Keisuke Goto attempts a header but misses the shot.
77
Update Update
Abdoulaye Sissako scores with a header.
72
Update Update
Wolke Janssens comes on for Ryan Merlen.
72
Update Update
Keisuke Goto replaces Ilias Sebaoui.
71
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Degreef takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Yari Verschaeren's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Thorgan Hazard's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Degreef takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Enric Llansana replaces Cesar Huerta.
64
Update Update
Thorgan Hazard replaces Danylo Sikan.
59
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Diouf's right-footed shot is blocked.
58
Update Update
Oumar Diouf is on, and Shion Shinkawa is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Loic Mbe Soh attempts a header but misses the shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan's header is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan's right-footed shot is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Ali Maamar's left-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Killian Sardella's right-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Kaito Matsuzawa comes on for Arbnor Muja.
45
Attempt Attempt
Visar Musliu attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Update Update
Nathan Saliba's header is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan scores with a left-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Yari Verschaeren takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Visar Musliu takes a header shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Rihito Yamamoto takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Nathan De Cat takes a right-footed shot, but it misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Rihito Yamamoto's left-footed shot is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Rihito Yamamoto takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Marco Kana takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Yari Verschaeren's right-footed shot is blocked.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Danylo Sikan scores to make it 1-0.
20
Attempt Attempt
Danylo Sikan scores with a right-footed shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Killian Sardella is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Degreef takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Update Update
Killian Sardella comes on for Ilay Camara.
3
Attempt Attempt
Loic Mbe Soh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Arbnor Muja takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Anderlecht secured a 3-1 win over Sint-Truiden after establishing a 2-0 halftime advantage. Sint-Truiden maintained greater possession at 60 percent but could not translate territorial control into goals. Anderlecht demonstrated clinical finishing that offset lower ball retention. The significant deviation highlighted Anderlecht's ability to exceed baseline projections. Market alignment held true even with the performance gap. No red cards occurred to alter the flow or structure of play. The second-half addition of one goal confirmed the home side's control after the interval. Overall the result reflected efficient conversion of limited opportunities against a possession-dominant opponent.

Anderlecht vs Sint-Truiden preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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