Mechelen vs Club Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne Thu, 21 May - 6:30 PM
Pro League
Mechelen MEC
2 – 2
Club Brugge BRU
Full Time Thu, 21 May 6:30 PM
Round 9 Championship Round
Dani van den Heuvel - 87' (Own Goal)
Myron van Brederode - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Nicolò Tresoldi - 51'
Christos Tzolis - 17'

CONTEXT

Mechelen hosted Club Brugge in a competitive encounter that concluded with a 2-2 scoreline. The home team trailed at halftime with the score at 0-1. Club Brugge held a clear advantage in possession statistics, controlling 60 percent of the ball while Mechelen managed 40 percent. As the stronger side according to pre-match assessments, Club Brugge faced challenges in converting their dominance into a win. A moderate deviation of 8.7 percent was noted for the away team. Efficiency metrics aligned closely with projections throughout the game. No red cards were issued to either side, maintaining a full complement of players on the pitch for the duration. The draw reflects a balanced performance where both teams found the net twice after the break.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Club Brugge showed a moderate structural deviation of 8.7 percent in this encounter.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for the participating teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable due to null values in the match statistics.
  • Market alignment: The result proved aligned with overall market indicators for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be determined from the provided match information.
  • Event impact: Key events led to a 2-2 draw after trailing at the 0-1 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued, there was no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Bourdeaud'hui

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Bijnens

1st Assistant

Belgium

J. Van Dyck

2nd Assistant

Belgium

B. Verbeke

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.79
Yellow cards / match 3.31
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.32
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
VS
Club Brugge I. Leko
I. Leko
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: 72 D
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Gent Rank: 72 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Club Brugge Rank: 87 L
Anderlecht Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 79 W
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Gent Rank: 72 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 10 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mechelen
3.21%
Draw
91.31%
Away Club Brugge
5.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mechelen
-1.27%
Draw
+5.71%
Club Brugge
-4.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.14
87.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mechelen
Club Brugge
Power Score
70.14
87.03
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
208
23

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Club Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mechelen Club Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Club Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Club Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.25
33.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.75
40.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mechelen +0.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Club Brugge -0.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Club Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Club Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mechelen Club Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mechelen Club Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Club Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mechelen
vs
Club Brugge
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mechelen Club Brugge
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mechelen 0.33
Club Brugge 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mechelen Club Brugge
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mechelen 0.04
Club Brugge 0.05
Mechelen
Club Brugge
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRU had peak pressure around 61'.
  • MEC started the game with stronger pressure.
MEC Pressure BRU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRU reached the top pressure at 61' (95.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mechelen MEC Home
37 matches
Club Brugge BRU Away
Match Record
6
Wins
21
10
Draws
10
21
Losses
6
Goals
31
Goals Scored
81
81
Goals Conceded
31
-50
Goal Difference
+50
Expected Goals
0.49
xG
2.60
2.60
xGA
0.49

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:03:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. De Wolf
Belgium
1 O. De Wolf
M. Decoene
Belgium
39 M. Decoene
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
J. Martinez Marsà
Substitution
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
T. Koudou
Substitution
France
7 T. Koudou
D. Salifou
Substitution
Togo
29 D. Salifou
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 F. Hammar
M. Servais
Belgium
17 M. Servais
K. Mrabti
Substitution
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti
B. Boersma
28 B. Boersma
M. van Brederode
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode
Pitch
D. van den Heuvel
Netherlands
16 D. van den Heuvel
J. Seys
Belgium
65 J. Seys
B. Mechele
Belgium
44 B. Mechele
J. Ordóñez Guerrero
Ecuador
4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
H. Siquet
Substitution
Belgium
41 H. Siquet
H. Vanaken
Belgium
20 H. Vanaken
A. Stankovic
Serbia
25 A. Stankovic
C. Tzolis
Greece
8 C. Tzolis
H. Vetlesen
Substitution
Norway
10 H. Vetlesen
C. Borges
Portugal
9 C. Borges
N. Tresoldi
Substitution
Germany
7 N. Tresoldi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 9 · Championship Round
Stadium :
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Capacity :
16672
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bryan Bijnens
Jonas Van Dyck
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Bert Verbeke

Statistics

Possession
MEC
42%
BRU
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 45
40 Possession 60
3 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

25 Throwins 20
79 Ball Safe 70
6 Goal Attempts 10
1 Assists 2
1 Successful Dribbles 4
8 Dribble Attempts 11
13 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
4 Goal Kicks 11
4 Substitutions 3
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

72 Attacks 108
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

242 Successful Passes 424
321 Passes 503
75 Successful Passes Percentage 84
24 Successful Long Passes 32
56 Long Passes 68
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
11 Key Passes 16

Defensive

5 Saves 3
12 Tackles 12
5 Interceptions 5
43 Duels Won 37

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

6 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

1
Ortwin De Wolf
Ortwin De Wolf Goalkeeper
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
4
Gora Diouf
Gora Diouf
Defender86'
39
M. Decoene
M. Decoene Defender
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Midfielder
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio
Attacker79'
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
29
Dikeni Salifou
Dikeni Salifou Midfielder
14
Damir Milanovic
Damir Milanovic
Attacker68'
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacker
8
Mory Konaté
Mory Konaté
Midfielder79'
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma Attacker
Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

16
Dani van den Heuvel
Dani van den Heuvel Goalkeeper
4
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez Defender
41
Hugo Siquet
Hugo Siquet Defender
58
Jorne Spileers
Jorne Spileers
Defender82'
44
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
65
Joaquin Seys
Joaquin Seys Defender
8
Christos Tzolis
Christos Tzolis Midfielder
9
Carlos Forbs
Carlos Forbs Midfielder
10
Hugo Vetlesen
Hugo Vetlesen Midfielder
17
Romeo Vermant
Romeo Vermant
Attacker79'
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken Midfielder
25
Aleksandar Stanković
Aleksandar Stanković Midfielder
7
Nicolò Tresoldi
Nicolò Tresoldi Attacker
11
Cisse Sandra
Cisse Sandra
Midfielder79'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Jorne Spileers
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Dani van den Heuvel
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
87'
Event
Gora Diouf → José Marsà
7th Substitution
86'
82'
Event
Jorne Spileers → Hugo Siquet
6th Substitution
Event
Mory Konaté → Kerim Mrabti
3rd Substitution
79'
Event
Bill Antonio → Thérence Koudou
2nd Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Cisse Sandra → Nicolò Tresoldi
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Romeo Vermant → Hugo Vetlesen
5th Substitution
Event
Kerim Mrabti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Damir Milanovic → Dikeni Salifou
1st Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Hugo Siquet
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Frederik Vanderbiest
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
52'
52'
Event
Ivan Leko
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
51'
Event
Nicolò Tresoldi
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Myron van Brederode
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
17'
Event
Christos Tzolis
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'
Event
Var

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Bouke Boersma's header is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Benito Raman takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Dani van den Heuvel levels the score at 2-2.
86
Update Update
Gora Diouf comes on for Jose Martinez Marsa.
86
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Hammar takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Jorne Spileers replaces Hugo Siquet.
80
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Hammar takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Romeo Vermant replaces Hugo Vetlesen.
79
Update Update
Bill Antonio replaces Therence Koudou.
79
Update Update
Cisse Sandra comes on for Nicolo Tresoldi.
79
Update Update
Mory Konate comes on for Kerim Mrabti.
78
Attempt Attempt
Benito Raman's left-footed shot is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Therence Koudou takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Hans Vanaken takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kerim Mrabti receives a yellow card.
68
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Mrabti takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hugo Siquet receives a yellow card.
68
Update Update
Benito Raman comes on for Dikeni-Rafid Salifou.
66
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Siquet's left-footed shot is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi's header is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Brandon Mechele attempts a header but misses the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Brandon Mechele attempts a header but misses the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Therence Koudou's left-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Aleksandar Stankovic with his right foot is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Tresoldi scores with a right-footed shot.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Myron van Brederode scores, making it 1-1.
49
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode scores with a right-footed shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Borges takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Bouke Boersma's right-footed shot is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Vetlesen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Christos Tzolis scores with a right-footed shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Stankovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Siquet takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Vetlesen's right-footed shot is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Mrabti's right-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Massimo Decoene takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Bouke Boersma attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Mechelen 2-2 Club Brugge. Structural assessment: Club Brugge exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Mechelen vs Club Brugge preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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