Palermo vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Sun, 5 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
2 Winner 0
Avellino AVE
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Antonio Palumbo - 12'
Filippo Ranocchia - 82'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Armando Izzo 43'

CONTEXT

The match between Palermo and Avellino has officially finished, with Palermo securing a 2-0 full-time victory after taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break. This result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the stronger home side with a 59.4% win probability compared to Avellino's slim 16.1% chance. By securing the full three points, Palermo produced a significant positive deviation of 40.6% against baseline expectations. Play was remarkably balanced in terms of ball control, with Palermo holding a very narrow possession advantage of 51% to Avellino's 49%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture—making it impossible to evaluate outcome consistency based on exact shot quality—Palermo's overall efficiency shift was firmly in line with match expectations. A critical defining event in the fixture was a red card issued to Avellino, reducing the trailing visitors to ten men. This crucial disciplinary issue created a notable red card distortion during the second half, severely disrupting any realistic chance of an away comeback and cementing Palermo's comfortable home triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Dorillo
N. Dorillo
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
V. Crezzini
V. Crezzini
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
L. Giuggioli
L. Giuggioli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
E. Scarpa
E. Scarpa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 54 D
Monza Rank: 64 L
Carrarese Rank: 55 W
Mantova Rank: 52 W
Pescara Rank: 47 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: 51 L
Südtirol Rank: 56 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 W
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
59.42%
Draw
24.47%
Away Avellino
16.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.71
49.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Avellino
Power Score
63.71
49.31
League Position
4
10
Global Rank
349
732

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.55
13.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.98
22.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo +0.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Avellino -0.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Avellino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Avellino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Avellino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Avellino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Palermo
vs
Avellino
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Palermo Avellino
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Palermo 0.33
Avellino 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Palermo Avellino
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Palermo 0.00
Avellino 0.07
Palermo
Avellino
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
6 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
5
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
5
Goals
14
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
14
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:06:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
J. Joronen
Substitution
Finland
66 J. Joronen
P. Peda
Poland
29 P. Peda
M. Bani
Substitution
Italy
13 M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
A. Palumbo
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
J. Le Douaron
France
21 J. Le Douaron
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
G. Daffara
Italy
30 G. Daffara
M. Sala
Italy
3 M. Sala
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
L. Šimić
Croatia
44 L. Šimić
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
Substitution
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
Substitution
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
T. Biasci
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Biasci
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity
36365
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nicolò Dorillo
Valerio Crezzini
Lorenzo Giuggioli
Eugenio Scarpa

Statistics

Possession
PAL
53%
AVE
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 2
30 Dangerous attacks 37
51 Possession 49
1 Corners 0
15 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 21
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
4 Goal Kicks 7
2 Assists 0
9 Successful Dribbles 8
18 Dribble Attempts 14
129 Ball Safe 97
10 Goal Attempts 2
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

119 Attacks 98
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 75
405 Passes 385
317 Successful Passes 287
58 Long Passes 51
7 Key Passes 4
25 Successful Long Passes 15
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

14 Tackles 11
62 Duels Won 58
10 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 1

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 14
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
1
Alfred Gomis
Alfred Gomis
Goalkeeper57'
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani Defender
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani
Defender85'
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Defender
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane
Midfielder72'
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi
Defender46'
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder71'
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker
Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
3
Marco Sala
Marco Sala Defender
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Defender
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder33'
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
7
Gennaro Tutino
Gennaro Tutino
Attacker80'
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici
Defender46'
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo
Attacker46'
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
94
Roberto Insigne
Roberto Insigne
Attacker64'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Mattia Bani
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
82'
80'
Event
Gennaro Tutino → Dimitrios Sounas
9th Substitution
Event
Samuel Giovane → Jacopo Segre
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Antonio Palumbo
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Var
64'
64'
Event
Roberto Insigne → Tommaso Biasci
6th Substitution
Event
Alfred Gomis → Jesse Joronen
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi → Niccolò Pierozzi
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Raffaele Russo → Cosimo Patierno
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Patrick Enrici → Michele Besaggio
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Lorenco Simic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Armando Izzo
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
43'
Event
Armando Izzo
Red card cancelled
Event
Niccolò Pierozzi
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
37'
Event
Armando Izzo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Luca Palmiero
1st Substitution
Event
Antonio Palumbo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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