Olympique Marseille vs Nice Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Vélodrome Sun, 26 Apr - 6:45 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille OM
Versus
Nice NCE
KICKOFF : Sun, 26 Apr - 6:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Olympique Marseille welcome Nice to the Stade Vélodrome for a Ligue 1 regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting sixth in the table, Marseille boast a clear edge over 15th-placed Nice, underscored by a power score of 24.91 against 17.96, translating to a seven-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side. Recent form tilts in Marseille's favor too, with a 14.22 score eclipsing Nice's 11.44. Hosting at their fortress-like home ground, Marseille aim to capitalize on this superiority in a matchup ripe for dominance. Nice face an uphill battle, needing to defy the metrics to salvage points. Detailed set-piece and efficiency insights remain limited due to data constraints, but the structural chasm points to a home showcase.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Marseille hold a 7-point power advantage (24.91 vs 17.96) and sit 6th to Nice's 15th.
  • Form: Marseille lead form scores at 14.22 compared to Nice's 11.44.
  • Squad: Marseille's higher power score reflects superior squad depth over Nice.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable insights.
  • Market: Olympique Marseille 65% (Δ-0.7%) | Draw 20.8% (Δ+0.2%) | Nice 14.2% (Δ+0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
VS
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
1.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.82
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: L
Metz Rank: W
Monaco Rank: L
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: W
Toulouse Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: D
Le Havre Rank: D
Strasbourg Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Angers SCO Rank: W
Rennes Rank: L
23
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
23 - 5 - 12
12
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Marseille
65%
Draw
20.82%
Away Nice
14.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Olympique Marseille
-0.69%
Draw
+0.17%
Nice
+0.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.91
17.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Marseille
Nice
Power Score
24.91
17.96
League Position
6
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Marseille Nice

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Marseille OM Home
40 matches
Nice NCE Away
Match Record
23
Wins
12
5
Draws
5
12
Losses
23
Goals
68
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
68
+25
Goal Difference
-25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T02:03:39+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Vélodrome
Capacity
67395
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

12
Jeffrey de Lange
Jeffrey de Lange Goalkeeper
1
Gerónimo Rulli
Gerónimo Rulli Goalkeeper
92
Théo Vermot
Théo Vermot Goalkeeper
40
Jelle Van Neck
Jelle Van Neck Goalkeeper
28
Benjamin Pavard
Benjamin Pavard Defender
33
Emerson Palmieri dos Santos
Emerson Palmieri dos Santos Defender
32
Facundo Axel Medina
Facundo Axel Medina Defender
21
Naif Aguerd
Naif Aguerd Defender
5
Leonardo Julián Balerdi Rossa
Leonardo Julián Balerdi Rossa Defender
4
Conrad Jonathan Egan Riley
Conrad Jonathan Egan Riley Defender
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder
19
Geoffrey Kondogbia
Geoffrey Kondogbia Midfielder
8
Himad Abdelli
Himad Abdelli Midfielder
22
Timothy Weah
Timothy Weah Midfielder
27
Quinten Maduro
Quinten Maduro Midfielder
26
Bilal Nadir
Bilal Nadir Midfielder
11
Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri
Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri Midfielder
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren Midfielder
6
Tochukwu Nadi
Tochukwu Nadi Midfielder
17
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Attacker
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Attacker
20
Hamed Junior Traorè
Hamed Junior Traorè Attacker
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Attacker
14
Igor Guilherme Barbosa da Paixão
Igor Guilherme Barbosa da Paixão Attacker

Squad ▼

31
Maxime Dupé
Maxime Dupé Goalkeeper
80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
30
Bartosz Żelazowski
Bartosz Żelazowski Goalkeeper
4
Dante Bonfim da Costa Santos
Dante Bonfim da Costa Santos Defender
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Defender
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi Defender
55
Youssouf Ndayishimiye
Youssouf Ndayishimiye Defender
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Defender
5
Mohamed Abdelmonem
Mohamed Abdelmonem Defender
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Defender
37
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong Defender
64
Moise Bombito
Moise Bombito Defender
28
Abdulay Juma Bah
Abdulay Juma Bah Defender
8
Morgan Stéphane Sanson
Morgan Stéphane Sanson Midfielder
22
Tanguy NDombèlé Alvaro
Tanguy NDombèlé Alvaro Midfielder
6
Hichem Boudaoui
Hichem Boudaoui Midfielder
24
Charles Vanhoutte
Charles Vanhoutte Midfielder
99
Salis Abdul Samed
Salis Abdul Samed Midfielder
20
Tom Alexis Louchet
Tom Alexis Louchet Midfielder
41
Everton Pereira
Everton Pereira Midfielder
23
Gabin Bernardeau
Gabin Bernardeau Midfielder
39
Djibril Coulibaly
Djibril Coulibaly Midfielder
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Attacker
21
Isak Jansson
Isak Jansson Attacker
47
Tiago Maria Antunes Gouveia
Tiago Maria Antunes Gouveia Attacker
11
Sepe Elye Wahi
Sepe Elye Wahi Attacker
90
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi Benjamin Attacker
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho Attacker
32
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache Attacker

CONCLUSION

Marseille's structural and form edges position them as firm favorites against struggling Nice at the Vélodrome. With a seven-point power lead and home advantage, expect the hosts to control proceedings and secure a comfortable victory. Nice's lower standing and form score suggest resilience will be tested, but Marseille's quality should prevail in a fixture highlighting Ligue 1's top-half intensity. Key battles in midfield and attack will define the outcome, favoring the Phocaeans' push up the table.

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