Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
KSK Nika Fri, 6 Mar - 11:00 AM
Premier League
Oleksandria Oleksandria
0 Winner 1
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 11:00 AM
|
Goal
Lassina Traoré - 61'

CONTEXT

The match between Oleksandria and Shakhtar Donetsk has officially finished, with the away side securing a narrow 1-0 victory. After a scoreless first half, Shakhtar Donetsk ultimately found the second-half breakthrough to claim the win. This outcome firmly aligned with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the visitors with a dominant 74.8% win probability, leaving Oleksandria with just a 7.6% chance. Despite being the expected outcome, the result still represented a significant deviation level of 25.2% for the victorious Shakhtar squad. Shakhtar Donetsk dictated the tempo throughout the contest, controlling a commanding 68% of the possession while restricting the home side to only 32% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final outcome aligned strictly with the underlying chance quality. Furthermore, the match was played without major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to alter the tactical balance. Overall, the efficiency shift during the game was completely in line with pre-match projections. Shakhtar proved their status as the definitively stronger team, successfully turning their overwhelming possession advantage into a straightforward, clean-sheet victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Zabroda
K. Zabroda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
V. Kutsev
V. Kutsev
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
M. Kozyryatskiy
M. Kozyryatskiy
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Oleksandria K. Nesterenko
K. Nesterenko
VS
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.21
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 47 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 43 D
Kudrivka Rank: 42 D
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 50 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres Rank: 48 W
Karpaty Rank: 51 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 45 W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 54 D
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 D
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 42 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 6 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Oleksandria
7.59%
Draw
17.66%
Away Shakhtar Donetsk
74.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.27
73.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Oleksandria
Shakhtar Donetsk
Power Score
47.27
73.31
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
814
125

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Oleksandria Shakhtar Donetsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Oleksandria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shakhtar Donetsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.25
31.99
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.99
11.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Oleksandria -2.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk +2.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Oleksandria
Shakhtar Donetsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Oleksandria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shakhtar Donetsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Oleksandria Shakhtar Donetsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Oleksandria Shakhtar Donetsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Oleksandria
Shakhtar Donetsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Oleksandria Oleksandria Home
11 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
14
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-13T10:50:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
N. Makarenko
72 N. Makarenko
B. Butko
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 M. Ferreira Campos
J. Behiratche
Ivory Coast
50 J. Behiratche
A. Bol
Ukraine
86 A. Bol
J. da Silva
Substitution
44 J. da Silva
D. Shostak
Substitution
Ukraine
71 D. Shostak
D. Vashchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
D. Myshnov
Ukraine
9 (C) D. Myshnov
M. Rodrigues Teixeira
Substitution
Portugal
67 M. Rodrigues Teixeira
P. Yade
Senegal
37 P. Yade
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
P. Azevedo Pereira
Brazil
13 P. Azevedo Pereira
M. Matviyenko
Ukraine
22 (C) M. Matviyenko
V. Bondar
Ukraine
5 V. Bondar
Y. Konoplia
Ukraine
26 Y. Konoplia
E. Nazaryna
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
N. Martins da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 N. Martins da Silva
M. Gomes Claudino
Substitution
Brazil
6 M. Gomes Claudino
P. Delmino da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
Brazil
30 A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
L. Traore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
2 L. Traore

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadium
KSK Nika
Capacity
7000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Klym Zabroda
Valentin Kutsev
Maksim Kozyryatskiy

Statistics

Possession
Oleksandria
33%
SHK
67%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Shots 19
12 Dangerous attacks 55
32 Possession 68
1 Corners 5
2 Free kicks 1
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
12 Goal Kicks 0
0 Assists 1
11 Throwins 20
10 Dribble Attempts 18
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 89
1 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Successful Dribbles 16

Attacking

51 Attacks 93

Possession

179 Successful Passes 515
235 Passes 578
50 Long Passes 51
76 Successful Passes Percentage 89
27 Successful Long Passes 32
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63

Defensive

3 Saves 0
10 Tackles 4
20 Interceptions 17

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 27
0 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Klym Zabroda

Starting XI ▼

72
Nazar Makarenko
Nazar Makarenko Goalkeeper
6.81
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos Defender
6.48
44
Jhonnatan Silva
Jhonnatan Silva Defender
6.4
5
Fernando Henrique
Fernando Henrique
Midfielder34'
6.56
50
Jocelin Behiratche
Jocelin Behiratche Defender
7
86
Anton Bol
Anton Bol Defender
6.42
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
6.56
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov (C) Midfielder
6.87
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
6.26
24
Hussayn Touati
Hussayn Touati
Defender81'
6.38
71
Denys Shostak
Denys Shostak Midfielder
6.22
40
Dmytro Chernysh
Dmytro Chernysh
Midfielder63'
6.31
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Attacker
6.9
67
Mauro Rodrigues
Mauro Rodrigues Attacker
6.24
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara
Attacker63'
6.36
Referee : Klym Zabroda

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
6.52
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar Defender
7.3
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
8.1
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko (C) Defender
7.43
26
Yukhym Konoplya
Yukhym Konoplya Defender
6.8
6
Marlon Gomes
Marlon Gomes Midfielder
7.13
17
Vinícius Tobias
Vinícius Tobias
Midfielder90+3'
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
7.19
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko
Midfielder89'
11
Newerton
Newerton Midfielder
8.09
14
Isaque
Isaque
Midfielder80'
6.55
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
7.23
30
Alisson
Alisson Midfielder
6.87
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré Attacker
7.66
19
Kauã Elias
Kauã Elias
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Vinícius Tobias → Marlon Gomes
10th Substitution
Event
Bryan Castillo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
89'
Event
Kauã Elias → Lassina Traoré
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Oleg Ocheretko → Pedrinho
9th Substitution
Event
Hussayn Touati → Daniil Vashchenko
7th Substitution
81'
Event
6th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Isaque → Newerton
5th Substitution
Event
Dmytro Chernysh → Denys Shostak
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Tedi Cara → Mauro Rodrigues
2nd Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Lassina Traoré
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Miguel Campos
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
4th Yellowcard
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Denys Shostak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Fernando Henrique → Jhonnatan Silva
1st Substitution
34'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Shakhtar Donetsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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