Norwich City vs Derby County Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Championship, England
Carrow Road
Today - 6:45 PM
Championship
Norwich City
NOR
Derby County
DRB
KICKOFF :
Today - 6:45 PM
Round 44 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Norwich City host Derby County in Championship (Regular Season) at Carrow Road. Domestically, Norwich City sit 9th in the table while Derby County are 8th. Power ranking favours Norwich City by 3.3 points heading into this fixture.
TL;DR
-
Structural: Norwich City possesses a 3.3-point power advantage over Derby County, positioning them as the stronger team.
-
Form: Form scores are closely matched, with Derby at 26.78 and Norwich at 26.
-
Squad: Comparable league positions of 9th for Norwich and 8th for Derby reflect balanced squad quality.
-
Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
-
Transition: Transition data unavailable; analysis relies on overall power scores.
-
Set pieces: Set piece stats unavailable due to absent xG data and low-confidence proxies.
-
xVariable: xG data not available, limiting advanced variable analysis.
-
Market: Norwich City 46.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.8% (Δ+0%) | Derby County 26.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25
vs Team A
Feb 1
vs Team B
Feb 8
vs Team C
P. Clement
VS
J. Eustace
1.61
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.76
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City
Rank:
W
Ipswich Town
Rank:
L
Millwall
Rank:
W
Portsmouth
Rank:
D
Charlton Athletic
Rank:
W
Southampton
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United
Rank:
W
Southampton
Rank:
L
Stoke City
Rank:
W
Coventry City
Rank:
L
Birmingham City
Rank:
W
Portsmouth
Rank:
W
6
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Norwich City
46.84%
Draw
26.77%
Derby County
26.39%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.85
28.59
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Norwich City
Derby County
Power Score
31.85
28.59
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Norwich City
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Derby County
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Norwich City Derby County
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Norwich City
NOR
Home
21
matches
Derby County
DRB
Away
Match Record
6
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
6
Goals
27
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
27
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:03:55+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 V. Kovačević
3 J. Stacey
6 H. Darling
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
35 K. Fisher
7 P. Mattsson
23 K. McLean
29 O. Schwartau
20 A. Slimane
21 A. Ahmed
37 M. Toure
12 R. O'Donnell
22 M. Johnston
5 M. Clarke
3 C. Forsyth
23 J. Ward
18 D. Ozoh
27 L. Travis
25 B. Brereton
19 S. Szmodics
34 J. Banel
9 C. Morris
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 44 · Regular Season
Stadium
Carrow Road
Capacity
27244
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Hugh Gilroy
Mark Russell
Gavin Ward
Tom Reeves
Next Match
Norwich City
vs
Swansea City
League: Championship
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: Carrow Road
Derby County
vs
Queens Park Rangers
League: Championship
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road
Lineup
Referee :
Tom Reeves
Manager ▼
P. Clement
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Vladan Kovačević
Goalkeeper
6.84 3
Jack Stacey
Defender
6.69 6
Harry Darling
Defender
6.88 33
José Córdoba
Defender
6.88 35
Kellen Fisher
Defender
6.76 7
P. Mattsson
Midfielder
6.91 20
Anis Slimane
Midfielder
6.92 21
Ali Ahmed
Midfielder
7.08 23
Kenny McLean
Midfielder
7.1 29
Oscar Schwartau
Midfielder
6.69 37
Mohamed Touré
Attacker
7.46
Referee :
Tom Reeves
Manager ▼
J. Eustace
Coach
Starting XI ▼
12
Richard O'Donnell
Goalkeeper
7.01 3
Craig Forsyth
Defender
6.67 5
Matt Clarke
Defender
7.06 22
Max Johnston
Defender
6.64 23
Joe Ward
Defender
7.02 18
David Ozoh
Midfielder
6.59 19
Sammie Szmodics
Midfielder
6.89 25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Midfielder
6.75 27
Lewis Travis
Midfielder
6.98 34
Jaydon Banel
Midfielder
6.61 9
Carlton Morris
Attacker
7.05 CONCLUSION
Norwich City's home edge at Carrow Road combines with their power advantage to make them marginal favorites in this even contest. Derby's slightly superior form score keeps them competitive, potentially exploiting any Norwich lapses. Without granular xG or set piece insights, the focus falls on structural metrics and table proximity. A disciplined defensive showing from Derby could force a draw, but Norwich's overall strength suggests they edge it in a low-scoring affair. Key battles in midfield will dictate transitions, with the hosts poised to capitalize on familiarity with the venue.