Nieciecza vs Wisła Płock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza Sun, 19 Apr - 10:15 AM
Ekstraklasa
Nieciecza Nieciecza
1 Winner 3
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 10:15 AM
Round 29 Regular Season
Kamil Zapolnik - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Wiktor Nowak - 36'
Zan Rogelj - 39'
Giannis Niarchos - 51'

CONTEXT

Wisła Płock secured a 3-1 victory over Nieciecza on the road, marking a significant 63.3% deviation from pre-match market expectations in their favor. The away side took a commanding 2-0 lead into halftime, with Nieciecza unable to capitalize on their 57% possession dominance throughout the match. Despite the home team's territorial advantage, Wisła Płock's clinical finishing proved decisive, extending their lead in the second half while conceding just once. No red cards were issued, ensuring the contest remained uninterrupted by disciplinary distortions. Pre-match markets reflected a closely contested affair, pricing Nieciecza at 36% and Wisła Płock at 36.7%, with a draw at 27.3%. Designated as the stronger team, Wisła Płock's performance aligned with their status, though efficiency shifts stayed in line with projections. Absence of xG data limits deeper performance metrics analysis.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Wisła Płock achieved a significant 63.3% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with overall market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without performance data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Golis
D. Golis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Obukowicz
M. Obukowicz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
P. Świerczek
P. Świerczek
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Szczerbowicz
M. Szczerbowicz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
VS
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
0.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: W
Katowice Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nieciecza
36.01%
Draw
27.28%
Away Wisła Płock
36.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nieciecza
+35.81%
Draw
+25.36%
Wisła Płock
-61.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.93
27.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nieciecza
Wisła Płock
Power Score
17.93
27.28
League Position
18
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nieciecza Wisła Płock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.56
41.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.40
29.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nieciecza -1.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Wisła Płock +1.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Wisła Płock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nieciecza Wisła Płock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nieciecza Wisła Płock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Wisła Płock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nieciecza
vs
Wisła Płock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nieciecza Wisła Płock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nieciecza 0.25
Wisła Płock 0.44
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nieciecza Wisła Płock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nieciecza 0.08
Wisła Płock 0.02
Nieciecza
Wisła Płock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Wisła Płock had peak pressure around 40'.
  • Nieciecza started the game with stronger pressure.
Nieciecza Pressure Wisła Płock Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Wisła Płock reached the top pressure at 40' (88.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nieciecza Nieciecza Home
7 matches
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
4
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:01:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
M. Matysik
Poland
32 M. Matysik
L. Masoero Masi
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
A. Putivtsev
Substitution
Ukraine
77 A. Putivtsev
R. Boboc
Romania
27 R. Boboc
S. Guerrero Romero
Substitution
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
M. Ambrosiewicz
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
D. Hilbrycht
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
M. Faßbender
Substitution
Germany
7 M. Faßbender
K. Zapolnik
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik
J. Jiménez Núñez
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
R. Leszczynski
Poland
12 R. Leszczynski
N. Mijušković
Montenegro
25 N. Mijušković
M. Kamiński
Poland
35 M. Kamiński
M. Haglind-Sangré
Sweden
4 M. Haglind-Sangré
D. Gallapeni
Substitution
Kosovo
19 D. Gallapeni
D. Pacheco Lobato
Substitution
Spain
8 D. Pacheco Lobato
K. Savvidis
Substitution
Greece
88 K. Savvidis
D. Kun
Substitution
Poland
14 D. Kun
Ž. Rogelj
Slovenia
21 Ž. Rogelj
W. Nowak
Poland
30 W. Nowak
I. Niarchos
Substitution
Greece
9 I. Niarchos

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 10:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza
Capacity
4595
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dawid Igor Golis
Michal Obukowicz
Patryk Świerczek
Marcin Szczerbowicz

Statistics

Possession
Nieciecza
54%
Wisła Płock
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 3
14 Shots 16
57 Dangerous attacks 36
57 Possession 43
2 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 9
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
4 Successful Dribbles 3
21 Throwins 16
8 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 3
13 Goal Attempts 10
4 Substitutions 5
58 Ball Safe 63

Attacking

80 Attacks 59
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

39 Long Passes 58
404 Successful Passes 309
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
18 Successful Long Passes 32
8 Key Passes 12
84 Successful Passes Percentage 84
479 Passes 370

Defensive

9 Tackles 9
42 Duels Won 38
4 Saves 6
7 Interceptions 11

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 15
14 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

9 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
7.06
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
6.53
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik Defender
6.44
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev Defender
6.45
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Defender57'
6.76
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
6.82
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
6.52
17
Dominik Biniek
Dominik Biniek
Midfielder67'
6.61
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc Midfielder
6.67
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
6.82
7
Morgan Faßbender
Morgan Faßbender Attacker
6.61
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek
Midfielder57'
6.62
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
6.7
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov
Attacker57'
6.71
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
6.81
Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Leszczynski
Rafal Leszczynski Goalkeeper
7
4
Marcus Haglind-Sangré
Marcus Haglind-Sangré Defender
6.73
25
Nemanja Mijuskovic
Nemanja Mijuskovic Defender
6.71
35
Marcin Kaminski
Marcin Kaminski Defender
6.82
8
Dani Pacheco
Dani Pacheco Midfielder
7.19
37
Matvey Bokhno
Matvey Bokhno
Defender90+2'
14
Dominik Kun
Dominik Kun Midfielder
6.7
2
Kevin Custovic
Kevin Custovic
Midfielder61'
6.74
19
Dion Gallapeni
Dion Gallapeni Midfielder
6.43
13
Quentin Lecoeuche
Quentin Lecoeuche
Defender61'
6.72
21
Zan Rogelj
Zan Rogelj Midfielder
6.73
88
Kyriakos Savvidis
Kyriakos Savvidis Midfielder
7.06
84
Tomás Franco Tavares
Tomás Franco Tavares
Defender69'
6.5
9
Giannis Niarchos
Giannis Niarchos Attacker
6.46
18
Dominik Sarapata
Dominik Sarapata
Midfielder69'
6.27
30
Wiktor Nowak
Wiktor Nowak Attacker
6.85

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Matvey Bokhno → Dani Pacheco
9th Substitution
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
Header / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Dominik Biniek
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
4th Yellowcard
80'
69'
Event
Dominik Sarapata → Giannis Niarchos
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Tomás Franco Tavares → Kyriakos Savvidis
8th Substitution
Event
Dominik Biniek → Sergio Guerrero
6th Substitution
67'
61'
Event
Kevin Custovic → Dominik Kun
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Quentin Lecoeuche → Dion Gallapeni
5th Substitution
Event
Ivan Durdov → Jesús Jiménez
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz → Artem Putivtsev
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Igor Strzalek → Morgan Faßbender
3rd Substitution
57'
51'
Event
Giannis Niarchos
Header / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Zan Rogelj
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Wiktor Nowak
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Sergio Guerrero
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
4'

CONCLUSION

Wisła Płock's 3-1 win highlighted their edge as the stronger team, overcoming Nieciecza's possession superiority through superior conversion. The significant market deviation underscores the away side's overperformance relative to tight pre-match pricing. With efficiency in line and no disruptive events or red cards, the result reflects straightforward execution of strengths. Lack of xG data prevents nuanced chance quality evaluation, but the halftime lead and sustained control indicate structural dominance. This outcome reinforces Wisła Płock's capability in balanced fixtures.

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