Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Allianz Riviera Sat, 21 Mar - 8:05 PM
Ligue 1
Nice NCE
0 Winner 4
Paris Saint Germain PSG
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 8:05 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
|
Goal
Nuno Mendes - 42' (P)
Désiré Doué - 49'
Pedro Fernández - 81'
Warren Zaïre-Emery - 85'
Youssouf Ndayishimiye  61' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Nice and Paris Saint Germain has finished, with the visitors claiming a resounding 4-0 full-time victory. Paris Saint Germain entered the half-time break with a 1-0 advantage and relentlessly extended their lead. Pre-match market expectations heavily favored the away side with a 65.5% win probability, compared to Nice's 14.4% chance and a 20.1% likelihood of a draw. The commanding result represented a significant deviation in favor of Paris Saint Germain, comfortably validating their status as the pre-match favorites. The underlying statistics completely aligned with the decisive scoreline. Paris Saint Germain dominated the ball with 74% possession, restricting Nice to a mere 26%. This control translated into a massive attacking discrepancy, as PSG generated 2.69 expected goals (xG) compared to Nice's sparse 0.46 xG. The match dynamics were heavily influenced by a red card for Nice, creating a notable second-half distortion that allowed the visitors to fully capitalize on their numerical advantage. Ultimately, Paris Saint Germain's attacking efficiency was firmly in line with the high volume of chances they created. The final outcome proved entirely consistent with both the underlying xG differential and the pre-match market projections.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Paris Saint Germain showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
VS
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.17
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Monaco Rank: 81 D
Brest Rank: 74 D
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Toulouse Rank: 74 L
Strasbourg Rank: 80 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 W
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 79 W
Paris Rank: 69 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 7 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nice
14.36%
Draw
20.12%
Away Paris Saint Germain
65.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.48
93.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nice
Paris Saint Germain
Power Score
70.48
93.64
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
185
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nice Paris Saint Germain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris Saint Germain
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.08
25.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.14
28.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nice +0.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Paris Saint Germain -0.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nice
Paris Saint Germain
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nice
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nice Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nice Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Nice
Paris Saint Germain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nice NCE Home
40 matches
Paris Saint Germain PSG Away
Match Record
13
Wins
20
7
Draws
7
20
Losses
13
Goals
38
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
38
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
Y. Diouf
France
80 Y. Diouf
A. Mendy
France
33 A. Mendy
D. da Costa Santos
Substitution
Brazil
4 (C) D. da Costa Santos
A. Juma Bah
Sierra Leone
28 A. Juma Bah
J. Clauss
France
92 J. Clauss
M. Sanson
France
8 M. Sanson
Y. Ndayishimiye
Burundi
55 Y. Ndayishimiye
H. Boudaoui
Algeria
6 H. Boudaoui
M. Bard
France
26 M. Bard
S. Diop
Substitution
Morocco
10 S. Diop
S. Wahi
Substitution
France
11 S. Wahi
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
L. Hernández Pi
France
21 L. Hernández Pi
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
51 W. Pacho Tenorio
I. Zabarnyi
Ukraine
6 I. Zabarnyi
W. Zaire Emery
France
33 W. Zaire Emery
S. Mayulu
Substitution
France
24 S. Mayulu
V. Machado Ferreira
Portugal
17 (C) V. Machado Ferreira
K. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
19 K. Lee
N. Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
25 N. Mendes
K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitution
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
D. Doue
Substitution
France
14 D. Doue

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 08:05 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Allianz Riviera
Capacity
36178
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Erwan Finjean
Valentin Evrard
Jeremy Stinat
Willy Delajod

Statistics

Possession
NCE
31%
PSG
69%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 8
3 Shots 4
26 Dangerous attacks 32
26 Possession 74
2 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 6
10 Throwins 18
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
11 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 8
54 Ball Safe 77
4 Goal Attempts 10
5 Successful Headers 6
0 Penalties 1
3 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2

Attacking

66 Attacks 114
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
34 Long Passes 44
79 Successful Passes Percentage 93
190 Successful Passes 675
17 Successful Long Passes 23
241 Passes 729
5 Key Passes 12

Defensive

16 Interceptions 8
11 Tackles 12
5 Saves 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 5
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 5
5 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Willy Delajod

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
6.65
4
Dante
Dante (C) Defender
6.33
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi
Defender71'
6.18
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Defender
6.72
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Defender
6.14
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Midfielder
6.19
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Midfielder
5.71
26
Melvin Bard
Melvin Bard Midfielder
6.06
55
Youssouf Ndayishimiye
Youssouf Ndayishimiye Midfielder
5.59
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Midfielder
6.89
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Attacker
6.71
32
Kaïl Boudache
Kaïl Boudache
Attacker65'
6.57
11
Elye Wahi
Elye Wahi Attacker
6.68
90
Kevin Carlos
Kevin Carlos
Attacker72'
6.47
Referee : Willy Delajod

Starting XI ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
6.69
6
Ilya Zabarnyi
Ilya Zabarnyi Defender
7.41
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández Defender
7.11
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery Defender
7.53
51
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
6.79
17
Vitinha
Vitinha (C) Midfielder
7.68
19
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee Midfielder
6.74
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé
Attacker64'
7.28
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu Midfielder
6.68
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo
Defender43'
6.97
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
6.93
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye
Attacker76'
6.56
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Attacker
8.12
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
Attacker76'
6.81
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Attacker
8.26
27
Pedro Fernández
Pedro Fernández
Midfielder76'
7.3

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Event
Pedro Fernández
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye → Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Pedro Fernández → Nuno Mendes
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Gonçalo Ramos → Désiré Doué
8th Substitution
Event
Kevin Carlos → Elye Wahi
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Ali Abdi → Dante 
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Kaïl Boudache → Sofiane Diop
3rd Substitution
65'
64'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé → Kang-in Lee
2nd Substitution
Event
Youssouf Ndayishimiye 
Foul / 1st Redcard
61'
Event
Youssouf Ndayishimiye 
Card adjusted
60'
49'
Event
Désiré Doué
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Lucas Beraldo → Senny Mayulu
1st Substitution
42'
Event
Nuno Mendes
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
39'
Event
Désiré Doué
Penalty awarded
Event
Tiago Gouveia
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
16'
16'
Event
Senny Mayulu
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Nice 0, Paris Saint-Germain 4.
90
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Hicham Boudaoui from Nice.
90
Update Update
Gonçalo Ramos from Paris Saint-Germain was awarded a free kick in the offensive zone.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint-Germain takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Yehvann Diouf from Nice makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist was provided by Gonçalo Ramos.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Paris Saint Germain 4. Warren Zaïre-Emery from PSG fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area into the bottom right corner.
83
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint Germain. Ibrahim Mbaye has been caught in an offside position.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Paris Saint Germain 3. Dro Fernández scores for Paris Saint Germain with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Ousmane Dembélé.
79
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint-Germain attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
78
Update Update
Dro Fernández of Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
78
Update Update
Kail Boudache commits a foul - Nice.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Dro Fernández comes on to replace Nuno Mendes.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Gonçalo Ramos is coming off, and Désiré Doué is taking his place.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Ibrahim Mbaye comes on to replace Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
75
Update Update
Illia Zabarnyi of Paris Saint Germain has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Kail Boudache commits a foul - Nice.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Kevin Carlos comes on to replace Elye Wahi.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Ali Abdi comes on to replace Dante.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain attempted a right-foot shot from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia during a quick counterattack.
69
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint-Germain. Ousmane Dembélé has been flagged for being offside.
66
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Hicham Boudaoui allowed the ball to go out.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nice: Kail Boudache comes on to replace Sofiane Diop.
65
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Ousmane Dembélé is coming off due to injury, and Lee Kang-In is taking his place.
63
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Yehvann Diouf from Nice.
63
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Désiré Doué from Paris Saint-Germain takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Yehvann Diouf from Nice makes a great save, pushing it to the top right corner. The assist came from Nuno Mendes.
61
Red Card Red Card Important
Youssouf Ndayishimiye from Nice has been shown a red card.
60
Red Card Red Card Important
VAR Review: Potential Red Card Under Examination.
59
Update Update
Lee Kang-In from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Update Update
Juma Bah committed a foul on Nice.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Willian Pacho allowed the ball to go out.
55
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia committed a foul against Paris Saint-Germain.
55
Update Update
Dante from Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Antoine Mendy from Nice has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Nuno Mendes committed a foul for Paris Saint Germain.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jonathan Clauss from Nice takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Elye Wahi, who delivered a cross.
51
Update Update
Offside - Good effort. Elye Wahi has been caught in an offside position.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Paris Saint Germain 2. Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
45
Update Update
Lee Kang-In from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Nice trailing 0 and Paris Saint Germain leading 1.
45
Update Update
Offside call - Great play. Sofiane Diop is caught offside.
45
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Melvin Bard from Nice attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the crossbar.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the scoreline reading Nice 0, Paris Saint-Germain 1.
44
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
44
Update Update
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
43
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Beraldo comes on to replace Senny Mayulu due to an injury.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nice 0, Paris Saint Germain 1. Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint Germain successfully converts the penalty, striking with his left foot into the bottom right corner.
39
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Paris Saint-Germain.
38
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity gone begging! Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left after a quick counterattack.
38
Update Update
Morgan Sanson of Nice has given away a penalty due to a handball in the box.
38
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain attempted a header from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right. The chance was set up by Lee Kang-In, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Juma Bah allowed the ball to go out.
37
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Juma Bah allowed the ball to go out of play.
35
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
33
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Dante from Nice attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Jonathan Clauss, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
33
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint-Germain.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice after Lucas Hernández conceded the ball.
31
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Sofiane Diop from Nice takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
30
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Hicham Boudaoui from Nice committed a foul.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nice, following a defensive play by Illia Zabarnyi.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
28
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
28
Update Update
Match interruption - Paris Saint-Germain.
24
Update Update
Youssouf Ndayishimiye committed a foul against Nice.
24
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint-Germain has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Paris Saint Germain, following a deflection off Yehvann Diouf.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Yehvann Diouf allowed the ball to go out.
21
Update Update
Juma Bah committed a foul against Nice.
21
Update Update
Lee Kang-In from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the bottom right corner by Yehvann Diouf. The assist came from Vitinha.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Yehvann Diouf allowed the ball to go out.
18
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint Germain. Nuno Mendes has been caught offside.
18
Update Update
Senny Mayulu from Paris Saint Germain has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Morgan Sanson from Nice has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
16
Update Update
Senny Mayulu from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Senny Mayulu of Paris Saint-Germain has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
15
Update Update
Jonathan Clauss from Nice committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Nuno Mendes of Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick on the left flank.
13
Update Update
Lee Kang-In from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick on the right flank.
13
Update Update
Melvin Bard from Nice committed a foul.
12
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Yehvann Diouf makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Désiré Doué, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
10
Update Update
Offside call - Great play. Elye Wahi is caught offside.
9
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint Germain. Illia Zabarnyi is caught in an offside position.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint-Germain after Juma Bah allowed it to go out of play.
9
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Warren Zaïre-Emery from Paris Saint-Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Désiré Doué.
5
Update Update
Offside call - Great play. Elye Wahi has been caught offside.
3
Update Update
Offside call - Great play. Elye Wahi is caught offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Paris Saint Germain exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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