Moreirense vs Nacional Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas Sat, 7 Mar - 3:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Moreirense MOE
1 – 1
Nacional Nacional
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:30 PM
Luís Semedo - 45+7'
Goal
|
Goal
Miguel Baeza - 67'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Moreirense 1–1 Nacional. The match ended in a draw. Moreirense showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 46%–54%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moreirense showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Bessa Silva
J. Bessa Silva
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Ferreira
A. Ferreira
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Oliveira
T. Oliveira
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Dias Torres
M. Dias Torres
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 7.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
VS
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.85
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: D
Sporting CP Rank: L
Rio Ave Rank: W
Gil Vicente Rank: L
Vitória Guimarães Rank: L
Santa Clara Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Porto Rank: L
Casa Pia Rank: D
Sporting CP Rank: L
Rio Ave Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Moreirense
37.51%
Draw
29.42%
Away Nacional
33.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.67
29.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Moreirense
Nacional
Power Score
46.67
29.33
League Position
7
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Moreirense Nacional

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Moreirense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nacional
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.72
41.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.48
17.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Moreirense -2.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Nacional +2.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Nacional
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nacional
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Moreirense Nacional
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Moreirense Nacional
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Nacional
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Moreirense MOE Home
5 matches
Nacional Nacional Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:09:26+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Capacity
2000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
João Alexandre Bessa Silva
André Ferreira
Teresa Alice Pimenta Oliveira
Márcio André Dias Torres

Statistics

Possession
MOE
45%
Nacional
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 20
23 Dangerous attacks 48
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

28 Ball Safe 38
10 Successful Dribbles 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
8 Goal Kicks 10
20 Dribble Attempts 13
15 Throwins 22
9 Successful Headers 12
0 Injuries 3
2 Goal Attempts 1
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

56 Attacks 122
0 Big Chances Missed 3
1 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

377 Passes 434
29 Successful Long Passes 16
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
303 Successful Passes 348
80 Successful Passes Percentage 80
65 Long Passes 48
6 Key Passes 12

Defensive

9 Tackles 20
10 Interceptions 7
6 Saves 1

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6
15 Total Crosses 28

Discipline

14 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Nile John
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+3'
Event
Liziero
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Daniel Jr → Miguel Baeza
7th Substitution
Event
Kevyn Monteiro → Leandro Santos
6th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Lucas João → Jesús Ramírez
5th Substitution
Event
Jimi Gower → Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Landerson → Alan de Souza Guimarães
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Leandro Santos
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
69'
Event
Pablo Ruan → Gabriel Veron
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Miguel Baeza
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Nile John → Rodrigo Alonso Martín
1st Substitution
64'
55'
Event
Léo Santos
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Travassos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Luís Semedo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+7'
16'
Event
Léo Santos
Penalty disallowed

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to CD Nacional after Kiko allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the match ending in a 1-1 draw between Moreirense and CD Nacional.
90
Update Update
Luís Semedo from Moreirense is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
Jimi Gower from Moreirense commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Liziero from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Daniel Júnior comes on to take the place of Miguel Baeza.
90
Update Update
Liziero of CD Nacional earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
90
Update Update
Zé Vítor from CD Nacional committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nile John of Moreirense receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal has been thwarted. Léo Santos from CD Nacional directed a header from the middle of the box, but André Ferreira of Moreirense made a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The attempt was set up by Pablo Ruan.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liziero from CD Nacional receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Matheus Dias from CD Nacional took a right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box, but it sailed high and wide to the right after a set piece.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Pablo Ruan from CD Nacional tries a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. He was assisted by Daniel Júnior.
90
Corner Corner
A shot on goal has been denied. Pablo Ruan from CD Nacional took a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper managed to make a save in the upper left corner.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gilberto Batista from Moreirense receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
90
Update Update
Gilberto Batista from Moreirense committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Léo Santos from CD Nacional commits a foul.
89
Update Update
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
88
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after a foul by Maracás.
88
Corner Corner
The attempt was thwarted. Lucas João from CD Nacional directed a header from the middle of the box, but it was saved in the bottom right corner. The cross was provided by Liziero.
87
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after Kevyn Monteiro allowed the ball to go out of play.
86
Update Update
Kiko from Moreirense commits a foul.
86
Update Update
Pablo Ruan from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick on the right flank.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Kevyn Monteiro comes on to take the place of Leandro Santos.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Lucas João comes on to take the place of Chuchu Ramírez.
83
Update Update
Liziero from CD Nacional commits a foul.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Liziero of CD Nacional.
83
Update Update
André Ferreira from Moreirense is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
79
Update Update
Offside call against CD Nacional. Lenny Vallier has been flagged for being in an offside position.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional tried a header from the middle of the box after a set piece play.
77
Update Update
Matheus Dias from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
77
Update Update
Nile John commits a foul for Moreirense.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Jimi Gower comes on to take the place of Kiko Bondoso.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Landerson comes on to take the place of Alan.
75
Update Update
Zé Vítor commits a foul for CD Nacional.
75
Update Update
Luís Semedo from Moreirense earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional took a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it didn't hit the target.
71
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
70
Update Update
Leandro Santos from Moreirense committed a foul.
70
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Leandro Santos from Moreirense.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leandro Santos from Moreirense receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
70
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Pablo Ruan comes on to take the place of Gabriel Veron.
68
Update Update
Alan Núñez from CD Nacional committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Kiko Bondoso from Moreirense is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now Moreirense 1, CD Nacional 1. Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional has scored with a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, placing the ball into the bottom left corner of the net. The assist came from Alan Núñez.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Nile John comes on to take the place of Rodri Alonso.
60
Update Update
Offside call against CD Nacional. Chuchu Ramírez has been flagged for being in an offside position.
59
Corner Corner
A shot from outside the box by Liziero of CD Nacional is stopped by André Ferreira, who makes a save in the top left corner. The attempt was set up by Lenny Vallier.
57
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Zé Vítor from CD Nacional tries a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
55
Update Update
Luís Semedo from Moreirense earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Léo Santos from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
55
Update Update
Léo Santos from CD Nacional commits a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional takes a left-footed attempt from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Paulinho Bóia.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Liziero from CD Nacional takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar. He was assisted by Matheus Dias.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matheus Dias from CD Nacional took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it didn't hit the target.
51
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Luís Semedo from Moreirense takes a left-footed shot from close range, but it sails just over the bar. The chance was set up by a cross from Diogo Travassos.
50
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Mateja Stjepanovic of Moreirense heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it goes just wide to the right. The chance was set up by Alan, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
50
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Alan from Moreirense took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Diogo Travassos.
49
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Moreirense after a deflection off Kaique.
49
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Moreirense after a deflection off Kaique.
48
Update Update
Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
48
Update Update
Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
47
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
46
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional.
46
Update Update
Maracás has been awarded a free kick in their own half.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
45
Update Update
Luís Semedo from Moreirense is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with Moreirense leading CD Nacional 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Moreirense after Lenny Vallier allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
Luís Semedo from Moreirense earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after a foul by Gilberto Batista.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Moreirense takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against CD Nacional. Luís Semedo scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing the ball in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Diogo Travassos after a quick counterattack.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Moreirense 1, CD Nacional 0.
45
Update Update
Leandro Santos from Moreirense is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
45
Update Update
Léo Santos from CD Nacional commits a foul.
44
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
43
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Kaique from CD Nacional.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Lenny Vallier from CD Nacional.
39
Update Update
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Lenny Vallier of CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
37
Update Update
Rodri Alonso from Moreirense is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
37
Update Update
Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional commits a foul.
36
Update Update
Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
36
Update Update
Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
35
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Moreirense after Zé Vítor allowed the ball to go out.
35
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Moreirense after Zé Vítor allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
Leandro Santos from Moreirense earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
31
Update Update
Zé Vítor from CD Nacional commits a foul.
30
Update Update
Matheus Dias from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive half.
30
Update Update
Luís Semedo from Moreirense commits a foul.
29
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
29
Update Update
Kiko from Moreirense earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Veron of CD Nacional.
24
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after Leandro Santos allowed the ball to go out.
23
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Léo Santos from CD Nacional.
23
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Léo Santos from CD Nacional took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the right after a corner kick.
23
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional tries to strike with his right foot from the left side of the penalty area, but the effort is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot deflected. Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional had a header in the middle of the penalty area that was stopped. The cross was provided by Miguel Baeza.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Moreirense after a deflection off Lenny Vallier.
20
Update Update
Matheus Dias from CD Nacional committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Alan from Moreirense earns a free kick in their own half.
19
Update Update
Kaique from CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in their own half of the field.
16
Update Update
VAR Review: Possible Penalty for CD Nacional.
14
Update Update
Kiko from Moreirense has given away a penalty due to a handball in the box.
13
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to CD Nacional after a foul by Gilberto Batista.
13
Attempt Attempt
The attempt was thwarted. Miguel Baeza from CD Nacional took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked.
9
Update Update
Gabriel Veron from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
9
Update Update
Gabriel Veron from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
8
Update Update
Matheus Dias from CD Nacional earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
8
Update Update
Alan from Moreirense commits a foul.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kiko Bondoso from Moreirense takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it goes just wide to the right.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to CD Nacional after a play involving Kiko, who was responsible for conceding it.
3
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia of CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
3
Update Update
Mateja Stjepanovic of Moreirense commits a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Moreirense exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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