Middlesbrough vs Bristol City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Riverside Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 12:30 PM
Championship
Middlesbrough MID
1 – 1
Bristol City BSC
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 12:30 PM
Leo Castledine - 65'
Goal
|
Goal
Adam Randell - 90+6'

CONTEXT

The match between Middlesbrough and Bristol City has finished in a 1-1 draw. After a goalless first half, both teams found the back of the net in the second period to share the points. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the home side. Middlesbrough entered the contest as clear favorites with a 64.3% implied probability of victory, while a draw was given just a 21% chance and an away win a 14.7% likelihood. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market. Middlesbrough thoroughly dominated the overall flow of the game, controlling a commanding 69% of the possession compared to a mere 31% for Bristol City. Expected goals (xG) data is currently unavailable, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the actual quality of scoring chances created. However, the efficiency shifts for both teams were in line with their general performance profiles. Middlesbrough recorded a positive efficiency rating of 1.5307, yet failed to convert their heavy territorial dominance into three points. The contest was played cleanly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card. Ultimately, Bristol City successfully frustrated the stronger side to walk away with an unexpected point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Middlesbrough showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Martin
S. Martin
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
P. Hodskinson
P. Hodskinson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. Backhouse
A. Backhouse
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. James
A. James
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
VS
Bristol City G. Struber
G. Struber
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: 69 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 W
Southampton Rank: 72 W
Derby County Rank: 71 L
Hull City Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 L
Oxford United Rank: 62 D
Preston North End Rank: 69 L
Portsmouth Rank: 67 W
Millwall Rank: 73 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Middlesbrough
64.34%
Draw
20.98%
Away Bristol City
14.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.28
68.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Power Score
73.28
68.08
League Position
2
14
Global Rank
126
216

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Middlesbrough Bristol City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Middlesbrough

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bristol City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Middlesbrough ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bristol City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.84
17.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.74
33.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Middlesbrough +1.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Bristol City -1.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Middlesbrough
vs
Bristol City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Middlesbrough Bristol City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Middlesbrough Bristol City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Middlesbrough MID Home
11 matches
Bristol City BSC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
2
Goals
12
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
12
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:43:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
S. Brynn
England
31 S. Brynn
C. Brittain
England
2 C. Brittain
L. Ayling
England
12 L. Ayling
A. Malanda
France
29 A. Malanda
M. Targett
England
3 M. Targett
A. Morris
United States
18 A. Morris
A. Browne
Republic of Ireland
16 A. Browne
H. Hackney
Substitution
England
7 (C) H. Hackney
R. McGree
Substitution
Australia
8 R. McGree
J. Sarmiento
Substitution
Ecuador
45 J. Sarmiento
T. Conway
Substitution
Scotland
9 T. Conway
R. Vítek
Czech Republic
23 R. Vítek
R. McCrorie
Scotland
2 R. McCrorie
C. Pring
England
3 C. Pring
J. Knight
Republic of Ireland
12 (C) J. Knight
N. Eile
Sweden
38 N. Eile
M. Sykes
Northern Ireland
17 M. Sykes
S. Twine
Substitution
England
10 S. Twine
S. Morsy
Substitution
Egypt
40 S. Morsy
A. Randell
England
4 A. Randell
E. Riis Jakobsen
Denmark
18 E. Riis Jakobsen
S. Armstrong
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
30 S. Armstrong

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Riverside Stadium
Capacity
34988
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stephen Martin
Paul Hodskinson
Anthony Backhouse
Alex James

Statistics

Possession
MID
64%
BSC
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 2
87 Dangerous attacks 30
69 Possession 31
9 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
8 Successful Headers 16
6 Successful Dribbles 3
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
16 Dribble Attempts 12
32 Throwins 16
5 Goal Kicks 13
73 Ball Safe 76
4 Substitutions 3
6 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

123 Attacks 65
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 73
548 Passes 251
18 Successful Long Passes 24
41 Long Passes 54
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
461 Successful Passes 184
11 Key Passes 4

Defensive

9 Tackles 18
4 Interceptions 8
0 Saves 6

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
36 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

31
Sol Brynn
Sol Brynn Goalkeeper
6.71
2
Callum Brittain
Callum Brittain Defender
6.37
3
Matt Targett
Matt Targett Defender
7.43
12
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling Defender
6.51
29
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda Defender
6.75
7
Hayden Hackney
Hayden Hackney (C) Midfielder
7.53
14
Alex Gilbert
Alex Gilbert
Attacker72'
6.47
8
Riley McGree
Riley McGree Midfielder
6.95
13
David Strelec
David Strelec
Attacker59'
6.22
16
Alan Browne
Alan Browne Midfielder
6.64
18
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris Midfielder
8.16
45
Jeremy Sarmiento
Jeremy Sarmiento Midfielder
6.33
23
Leo Castledine
Leo Castledine
Midfielder60'
7.08
9
Tommy Conway
Tommy Conway Attacker
6.09
25
George Edmundson
George Edmundson
Defender90'
6.53
Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
7.79
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Defender
6.83
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring Defender
7.37
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight (C) Defender
6.82
17
Mark Sykes
Mark Sykes Defender
6.65
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
6.57
4
Adam Randell
Adam Randell Midfielder
7.88
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Midfielder
6.54
6
Max Bird
Max Bird
Midfielder78'
6.61
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
6.4
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat
Midfielder82'
7.06
18
Emil Riis
Emil Riis Attacker
6.77
30
Sinclair Armstrong
Sinclair Armstrong Attacker
6.25
20
Sam Bell
Sam Bell
Attacker68'
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Adam Randell
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
George Edmundson → Tommy Conway
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Tommy Conway
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
88'
82'
Event
Tomi Horvat → Sam Morsy
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Max Bird → Scott Twine
5th Substitution
Event
Alex Gilbert → Hayden Hackney
4th Substitution
72'
68'
Event
Sam Bell → Sinclair Armstrong
3rd Substitution
Event
Leo Castledine
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
65'
Event
Leo Castledine → Jeremy Sarmiento
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
David Strelec → Riley McGree
1st Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Sinclair Armstrong
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
53'
Event
Scott Twine
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
53'
Event
Sam Morsy
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Cameron Pring
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Noah Eile
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after George Edmundson allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Adam Randell from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Middlesbrough and Bristol City.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has signaled that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: George Edmundson comes on to replace Tommy Conway.
90
Update Update
Leo Castledine from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Adam Randell from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Alex Gilbert of Middlesbrough committed a foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Middlesbrough 1, Bristol City 1. Adam Randell scores for Bristol City with a header from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the top left corner. The assist comes from Tomi Horvat, who delivered a great cross following a corner kick.
88
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Cameron Pring from Bristol City attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Tomi Horvat.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommy Conway of Middlesbrough has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
87
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Adam Randell from Bristol City earned a free kick on the right flank.
87
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomi Horvat from Bristol City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Adam Randell.
87
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Aidan Morris.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Alan Browne allowed the ball to go out.
83
Update Update
Jason Knight commits a handball for Bristol City.
82
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Luke Ayling of Middlesbrough had a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Matt Targett, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Tomi Horvat comes on to replace Sam Morsy.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Radek Vítek allowed the ball to go out.
81
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as David Strelec from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Radek Vítek, the Bristol City goalkeeper, makes a save right in the center of the goal.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Luke Ayling allowed the ball to go out.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Max Bird comes on to replace Scott Twine.
78
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Alan Browne of Middlesbrough attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Matt Targett, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Mark Sykes allowed the ball to go out.
77
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Radek Vítek of Bristol City makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Matt Targett.
76
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
76
Update Update
Jason Knight from Bristol City has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Sam Morsy committed a foul against Bristol City.
75
Update Update
Leo Castledine from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Alex Gilbert replaces Hayden Hackney due to an injury.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
71
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough.
68
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Sam Bell replaces Sinclair Armstrong.
66
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Middlesbrough takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Bristol City. Leo Castledine scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the top center of the net. The assist comes from Hayden Hackney.
64
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough had a great opportunity but his right-footed shot from outside the penalty area soared over the goal. The assist came from Hayden Hackney.
60
Update Update
A fresh offensive move is underway. Alan Browne of Middlesbrough heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Radek Vítek, the goalkeeper for Bristol City, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Matt Targett, who delivered a cross.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: Leo Castledine comes on to replace Jeremy Sarmiento.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Middlesbrough: David Strelec comes on to replace Riley McGree.
58
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sinclair Armstrong from Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
58
Update Update
Sinclair Armstrong committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
55
Update Update
Adilson Malanda from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
55
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Radek Vítek from Bristol City makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Riley McGree.
55
Update Update
Radek Vítek from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Alan Browne from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from close range, but Radek Vítek, the goalkeeper for Bristol City, makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after a foul by Cameron Pring.
55
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jeremy Sarmiento.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Scott Twine from Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sam Morsy from Bristol City has been shown a yellow card.
52
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Emil Riis of Bristol City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Ross McCrorie during a quick counterattack.
52
Update Update
Scott Twine commits a foul against Bristol City.
50
Update Update
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough earned a free kick in an offensive position.
50
Update Update
Emil Riis committed a foul against a Bristol City player.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Riley McGree from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from the heart of the penalty area, but Radek Vítek, the goalkeeper for Bristol City, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough attempts a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully deflected away.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jeremy Sarmiento from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Middlesbrough and Bristol City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough earns a corner kick after Cameron Pring allows the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Middlesbrough 0, Bristol City 0.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Matt Targett from Middlesbrough takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cameron Pring of Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
43
Update Update
Jason Knight from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Cameron Pring from Bristol City committed a foul.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after a deflection off Radek Vítek.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Cameron Pring allowed the ball to go out.
36
Update Update
Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Attempt Attempt
Aidan Morris from Middlesbrough attempts a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Eile from Bristol City has been shown a yellow card.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Ross McCrorie allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
Ross McCrorie committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
31
Update Update
Alan Browne of Middlesbrough was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Mark Sykes from Bristol City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough earned a free kick on the left flank.
27
Update Update
Offside call against Bristol City. Sinclair Armstrong has been caught in an offside position.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Alan Browne allowed the ball to go out.
24
Update Update
Aidan Morris of Middlesbrough committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Adam Randell from Bristol City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
23
Update Update
Adam Randell from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Middlesbrough after Jason Knight allowed the ball to go out.
12
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Callum Brittain from Middlesbrough fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Aidan Morris.
11
Corner Corner
Middlesbrough has been awarded a corner kick after Cameron Pring allowed the ball to go out of play.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tommy Conway from Middlesbrough attempted a header from just a few meters out but couldn't find the target.
7
Update Update
Hayden Hackney from Middlesbrough committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Scott Twine of Bristol City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
1
Update Update
Cameron Pring from Bristol City committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Alan Browne from Middlesbrough was awarded a free kick on the right flank.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Middlesbrough exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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