Mechelen vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne Sun, 12 Apr - 11:30 AM
Pro League
Mechelen MEC
0 Winner 1
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 2 Championship Round
|
Goal
Ross Sykes - 45+2'

CONTEXT

The match between Mechelen and Union Saint-Gilloise is finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-1 to the visitors. Union Saint-Gilloise scored in the first half to lead 1-0 at the interval and successfully protected that advantage thereafter, with no second-half reply. No red cards were shown to either side, leaving both teams to contest the full 90 minutes without numerical disruption. Mechelen held more possession at 56 percent to 44 percent but could not turn territorial control into a positive result. Pre-match projections had assessed win probabilities at 16.6 percent for Mechelen, 25.5 percent for a draw, and 57.9 percent for Union Saint-Gilloise. The away victory therefore represented a significant deviation toward Union Saint-Gilloise, the stronger team, while the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. With no expected goals data available, alignment with xG cannot be measured. However, the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection and the identified stronger side, as Union Saint-Gilloise converted their status into a narrow but decisive success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Laforge
N. Laforge
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
V. Divincenzo
V. Divincenzo
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
L. Conotte
L. Conotte
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
M. Ledda
M. Ledda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
VS
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
1.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.19
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: W
Gent Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Dender Rank: W
Genk Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mechelen
16.59%
Draw
25.5%
Away Union Saint-Gilloise
57.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mechelen
+16.4%
Draw
+22.17%
Union Saint-Gilloise
-38.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.02
34.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mechelen
Union Saint-Gilloise
Power Score
25.02
34.76
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mechelen Union Saint-Gilloise

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.18
47.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.39
10.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mechelen -3.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise +3.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Union Saint-Gilloise
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Union Saint-Gilloise
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mechelen Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mechelen Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Union Saint-Gilloise
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mechelen
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mechelen Union Saint-Gilloise
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mechelen 0.12
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mechelen Union Saint-Gilloise
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mechelen 0.02
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.00
Mechelen
Union Saint-Gilloise
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • USG had peak pressure around 49'.
  • USG started the game with stronger pressure.
MEC Pressure USG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: USG reached the top pressure at 49' (77.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mechelen MEC Home
12 matches
Union Saint-Gilloise USG Away
Match Record
5
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
5
Goals
15
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
15
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:02:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
I. Mirás Blanco
Spain
13 I. Mirás Blanco
T. St. Jago
Substitution
Netherlands
33 T. St. Jago
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
J. Martinez Marsà
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
B. Antonio
Zimbabwe
38 B. Antonio
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 F. Hammar
M. Servais
Substitution
Belgium
17 M. Servais
T. Koudou
Substitution
France
7 T. Koudou
K. Mrabti
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti
B. Raman
Substitution
Belgium
14 B. Raman
M. van Brederode
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode
K. Scherpen
Netherlands
37 K. Scherpen
R. Sykes
England
26 R. Sykes
C. Burgess
England
16 C. Burgess
K. Mac Allister
Argentina
5 K. Mac Allister
G. da Silva Carvalho
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
R. Schoofs
Substitution
Belgium
17 R. Schoofs
A. Zorgane
Algeria
8 A. Zorgane
A. Khalaili
Israel
25 A. Khalaili
A. El Hadj
Substitution
Belgium
10 A. El Hadj
K. Rodríguez Cortéz
Substitution
Ecuador
13 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
M. Biondic
Substitution
Germany
9 M. Biondic

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Capacity
16672
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nicolas Laforge
Vito Divincenzo
Laurent Conotte
Massimiliano Ledda

Statistics

Possession
MEC
52%
USG
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 4
34 Dangerous attacks 57
56 Possession 44
2 Corners 9
17 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 4
29 Throwins 13
12 Dribble Attempts 20
6 Goal Kicks 7
5 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Goal Attempts 10
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
2 Injuries 0
77 Ball Safe 51

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 3
93 Attacks 99

Possession

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
1 Key Passes 14
348 Successful Passes 255
29 Successful Long Passes 29
66 Long Passes 49
79 Successful Passes Percentage 77
439 Passes 332

Defensive

7 Saves 0
16 Interceptions 19
21 Tackles 17

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 7
13 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

7 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
33
Tommy St. Jago
Tommy St. Jago Defender
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma
Attacker74'
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Midfielder
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
10
Maxim Kireev
Maxim Kireev
Midfielder88'
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
11
Bilal Bafdili
Bilal Bafdili
Midfielder88'
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio Midfielder
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
14
Damir Milanovic
Damir Milanovic Attacker
27
Keano Vanrafelghem
Keano Vanrafelghem
Attacker80'
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacker
Referee : Nicolas Laforge

Starting XI ▼

37
Kjell Scherpen
Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
5
Kevin Mac Allister
Kevin Mac Allister Defender
16
Christian Burgess
Christian Burgess Defender
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Defender
8
Adem Zorgane
Adem Zorgane Midfielder
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Midfielder
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs Midfielder
14
Ivan Pavlić
Ivan Pavlić
Midfielder90+5'
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
9
Mateo Biondic
Mateo Biondic Attacker
7
Mohammed Fuseini
Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker76'
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
6
Kamiel Van De Perre
Kamiel Van De Perre
Midfielder76'
13
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez Attacker
30
Raul Florucz
Raul Florucz
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Ivan Pavlić
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Ivan Pavlić → Rob Schoofs
8th Substitution
Event
Frederik Vanderbiest
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Raul Florucz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Anan Khalaili
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bilal Bafdili → Mathis Servais
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Maxim Kireev → Thérence Koudou
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Mathis Servais
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Keano Vanrafelghem → Damir Milanovic
5th Substitution
80'
76'
Event
Mohammed Fuseini → Mateo Biondic
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Kamiel Van De Perre → Anouar Ait El Hadj
4th Substitution
Event
Bouke Boersma → Tommy St. Jago
2nd Substitution
74'
71'
Event
David Hubert
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Raul Florucz → Kevin Rodríguez
1st Substitution
53'
Event
Christian Burgess
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Ross Sykes
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Union Saint-Gilloise exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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