Mechelen vs Anderlecht Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Sun, 15 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
Mechelen
MEC
1
0
0
Anderlecht
ADL
Full Time
Sun, 15 Mar
5:30 PM
Myron van Brederode - 90+1'
|
|
Adriano Bertaccini 89'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Mechelen 1–0 Anderlecht. The result saw Mechelen take the points. Mechelen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Mechelen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Divincenzo
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.38
L. Conotte
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.38
J. Vergoote
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.38
N. Laforge
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.38
F. Vanderbiest
VS
J. Taravel
1.43
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent
Rank: 69
L
Zulte-Waregem
Rank: 64
W
La Louvière
Rank: 68
W
Genk
Rank: 78
L
Antwerp
Rank: 70
W
OH Leuven
Rank: 67
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge
Rank: 83
D
OH Leuven
Rank: 66
W
Zulte-Waregem
Rank: 66
W
La Louvière
Rank: 67
D
Genk
Rank: 78
L
Standard Liège
Rank: 66
L
6
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 10 - 19
19
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Mechelen
31.99%
Draw
27.26%
Anderlecht
40.75%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.52
73.11
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mechelen
Anderlecht
Power Score
70.52
73.11
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
168
127
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Mechelen
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Anderlecht
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Mechelen Anderlecht
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Mechelen
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Anderlecht
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Mechelen
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Anderlecht
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.33
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Mechelen
+0.41
Efficiency Index
vs
Anderlecht
-0.41
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Anderlecht
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Mechelen
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Anderlecht
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Mechelen
Anderlecht
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Mechelen
Anderlecht
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Anderlecht
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Mechelen
MEC
Home
11
matches
Anderlecht
ADL
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
1
Goals
15
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
15
-16
Goal Difference
+16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:49:07+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-3
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
13 I. Mirás Blanco
33 T. St. Jago
K. Vanrafelghem
#2784'
2 R. Halhal
3 J. Martinez Marsà
7 T. Koudou
6 (C) F. Hammar
29 D. Salifou
B. Antonio
#3862'
23 M. Zekri
B. Raman
#1463'
19 K. Mrabti
I. Struyf
#1884'
28 B. Boersma
M. Decoene
#3990+3'
9 M. van Brederode
26 (C) C. Coosemans
6 L. Augustinsson
93 M. Diarra
15 M. Ilić
K. Sardella
#5486'
7 I. Camara
M. Stroeykens
#2960'
24 E. Llansana
13 N. Saliba
I. Kanate
#9990+3'
9 M. Cvetković
74 N. De Cat
A. Bertaccini
#9160'
83 T. Degreef
Y. Verschaeren
#1085'
11 T. Hazard
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Capacity
16672
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vito Divincenzo
Laurent Conotte
Jasper Vergoote
Nicolas Laforge
Statistics
Possession
MEC
42%
ADL
58%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
2
13
Shots
17
44
Dangerous attacks
60
40
Possession
60
5
Corners
4
19
Free kicks
9
2
Yellow Cards
8
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
5
Successful Dribbles
8
22
Throwins
24
45
Successful Dribbles Percentage
57
11
Dribble Attempts
14
15
Successful Headers
18
6
Goal Kicks
6
2
Injuries
1
66
Ball Safe
61
11
Goal Attempts
8
0
Hit Woodwork
2
5
Substitutions
5
Attacking
66
Attacks
125
2
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
72
Successful Passes Percentage
79
280
Passes
429
53
Long Passes
48
22
Successful Long Passes
23
8
Key Passes
14
201
Successful Passes
337
42
Successful Long Passes Percentage
48
Defensive
16
Tackles
19
4
Saves
4
16
Interceptions
11
Build-up
26
Total Crosses
27
5
Accurate Crosses
6
Discipline
1
Offsides
1
8
Fouls
18
Lineup
Referee :
Nicolas Laforge
Manager ▼
F. Vanderbiest
Coach
Starting XI ▼
13
Nacho Miras
Goalkeeper
7.58 2
Redouane Halhal
Defender
7.26 27Keano Vanrafelghem
Attacker84'
6.31
3
José Marsà
Defender
7.22 33
Tommy St. Jago
Defender
7.14 6
Fredrik Hammar (C)
Midfielder
7.31 7
Thérence Koudou
Midfielder
6.71 23
Moncef Zekri
Midfielder
6.85 38Bill Antonio
6.8Attacker62'
29
Dikeni Salifou
Midfielder
6.7 9
Myron van Brederode
Attacker
39M. Decoene
Midfielder90+3'
6.34
19
Kerim Mrabti
Attacker
6.89 14Benito Raman
6.5Attacker63'
28
Bouke Boersma
Attacker
6.76 18Ian Struyf
6.65Defender84'
Substitutes ▼
1
Ortwin De Wolf
Goalkeeper
11
Bilal Bafdili
Midfielder
12
H. Bandé
Attacker
21
Halil Özdemir
Attacker
Referee :
Nicolas Laforge
Manager ▼
J. Taravel
Coach
Starting XI ▼
26
Colin Coosemans (C)
Goalkeeper
7.41
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Defender
7.52 7
Ilay Camara
Defender
6.65 54Killian Sardella
6.3Defender86'
15
Mihajlo Ilić
Defender
6.5
93
Moussa Diarra
Defender
6.83
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Midfielder
6.53 99Ibrahim Kanaté
Midfielder90+3'
13
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Midfielder
7.55
24
Enric Llansana
Midfielder
6.72 29Mario Stroeykens
Midfielder60'
6.49
74
Nathan De Cat
Midfielder
7.55
83
Tristan Degreef
Midfielder
6.49 91Adriano Bertaccini
Attacker60'
6.13
11
Thorgan Hazard
Attacker
7 10Yari Verschaeren
6.31Midfielder85'
Substitutes ▼
32
Justin Heekeren
Goalkeeper
3
Lucas Hey
Defender
79
Ali Maamar
Defender
78
Anas Tajaouart
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Keano Vanrafelghem
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+7'
Colin Coosemans
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+6'
Moussa Diarra
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
M. Decoene
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
M. Decoene → Myron van Brederode
9th Substitution
90+3'
90+3'
Ibrahim Kanaté → Mihajlo Cvetkovic
10th Substitution
Myron van Brederode
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90+1'
89'
Adriano Bertaccini
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
86'
Killian Sardella → Ilay Camara
8th Substitution
85'
Yari Verschaeren → Thorgan Hazard
7th Substitution
Ian Struyf → Bouke Boersma
5th Substitution
84'
Keano Vanrafelghem → Redouane Halhal
6th Substitution
84'
72'
Adriano Bertaccini
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
68'
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Mihajlo Ilić
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Mario Stroeykens
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Benito Raman → Kerim Mrabti
4th Substitution
63'
Bill Antonio → Moncef Zekri
3rd Substitution
62'
60'
Adriano Bertaccini → Tristan Degreef
1st Substitution
60'
Mario Stroeykens → Enric Llansana
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Nathan De Cat
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Mechelen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.