Málaga vs Las Palmas Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 11 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
2 Winner 0
Las Palmas LPA
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Diego Murillo - 58'
Joaquín Muñoz - 68'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Málaga and Las Palmas is finished, ending 2-0 to the home side at full time. The teams went in level at 0-0 after a cautious first half, but Málaga scored twice after the interval to claim a comfortable victory. Pre-match expectations had forecast a tight contest, with Málaga given a 38.6 percent chance of success against Las Palmas’ 32.2 percent. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Málaga, who performed strongly as the designated stronger team and secured all three points. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection for the winner even if the margin exceeded what was widely anticipated. No red cards were shown, and there were no major disruptive events. Málaga achieved the win despite trailing in possession (44 percent to 56 percent). With no expected-goals data available, consistency with xG cannot be assessed, yet the result still reflected Málaga’s overall effectiveness across the 90 minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Martínez Caballero
C. Martínez Caballero
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
I. Hernández Ramos
I. Hernández Ramos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
G. Rius Riu
G. Rius Riu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Fuentes Molina
A. Fuentes Molina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.68
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: D
FC Andorra Rank: D
Leganés Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
Real Valladolid Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: L
Sporting Gijón Rank: W
Albacete Rank: L
Ceuta Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
38.55%
Draw
29.31%
Away Las Palmas
32.15%

Movement

Changes since opening
Málaga
-59.31%
Draw
+27.39%
Las Palmas
+31.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.87
29.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Las Palmas
Power Score
29.87
29.54
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Las Palmas

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Las Palmas
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.09
24.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.02
44.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Málaga +2.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Las Palmas -2.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Las Palmas
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Las Palmas
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Málaga Las Palmas
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Málaga Las Palmas
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Las Palmas
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Málaga
vs
Las Palmas
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Málaga Las Palmas
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Málaga 0.35
Las Palmas 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Málaga Las Palmas
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Málaga 0.00
Las Palmas 0.04
Málaga
Las Palmas
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LPA had peak pressure around 91'.
  • LPA started the game with stronger pressure.
MLA Pressure LPA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LPA reached the top pressure at 91' (95.39).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
21 matches
Las Palmas LPA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
7
Goals
25
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
25
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Substitution
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
J. Jiménez Melero
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Jiménez Melero
A. Ochoa Moloney
Substitution
Spain
35 A. Ochoa Moloney
C. Ruiz Rubio
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
A. Niño Heredia
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Niño Heredia
D. Horkaš
Croatia
1 D. Horkaš
E. Clemente Maza
Spain
5 E. Clemente Maza
M. Marmol Medina
Spain
3 M. Marmol Medina
S. Barcia Laranxeira
Spain
6 S. Barcia Laranxeira
V. Álvarez Rozada
Substitution
Spain
17 V. Álvarez Rozada
L. Amatucci
Italy
16 L. Amatucci
K. Rodríguez Concepción
Substitution
Spain
20 K. Rodríguez Concepción
P. García Mejías
Substitution
Spain
22 P. García Mejías
M. Fuster Lázaro
Spain
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
T. Miyashiro
Substitution
Japan
18 T. Miyashiro
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity
30044
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Carlos Martínez Caballero
Iván Hernández Ramos
G. Rius Riu
Andrés Fuentes Molina

Statistics

Possession
MLA
46%
LPA
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 3
48 Dangerous attacks 49
44 Possession 56
5 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Throwins 11
14 Successful Dribbles 8
4 Goal Kicks 8
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
25 Dribble Attempts 23
75 Ball Safe 95
12 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

97 Attacks 105
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

461 Passes 594
387 Successful Passes 530
57 Long Passes 58
10 Key Passes 10
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 64
29 Successful Long Passes 37
84 Successful Passes Percentage 89

Defensive

11 Interceptions 16
21 Tackles 16
3 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 6
11 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

15 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
8
Juanpe
Juanpe Midfielder
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez
Midfielder48'
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac
Midfielder88'
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Midfielder
24
Julen Lobete
Julen Lobete
Attacker88'
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa Midfielder
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio
Attacker64'
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder65'
Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Defender
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Defender
6
Sergio Barcia
Sergio Barcia Defender
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada Defender
2
Marvin Park
Marvin Park
Defender65'
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Midfielder
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Midfielder
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro Midfielder
21
Jonathan Viera
Jonathan Viera
Midfielder49'
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez Midfielder
8
Iván Gil
Iván Gil
Midfielder65'
22
Ale García
Ale García Midfielder
49
Iker Bravo
Iker Bravo
Attacker82'
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Darko Brasanac → Joaquín Muñoz
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Julen Lobete → Carlos Dotor
10th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Iker Bravo → Ale García
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Mika Mármol
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Rafa Rodríguez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
72'
Event
Joaquín Muñoz
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Adrián Niño
4th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Iván Gil → Kirian Rodríguez
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Marvin Park → Viti Rozada
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Estanis Pedrola → Jesé
7th Substitution
Event
Josué Dorrio → Aarón Ochoa
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Diego Murillo
Header / 1st Goal
58'
49'
Event
Jonathan Viera → Taisei Miyashiro
2nd Substitution
Event
Rafa Rodríguez → Juanpe
1st Substitution
48'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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