Málaga vs Castellón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
Versus
Castellón Castellón
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Málaga host Castellón in La Liga 2 (Regular Season) at Estadio La Rosaleda. Domestically, Málaga sit 6th in the table while Castellón are 4th. Power ranking favours Castellón by 2.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Castellón hold a 2.1-point power advantage over Málaga despite the hosts' home venue.
  • Form: Castellón's form score of 31.94 significantly outpaces Málaga's 23.28.
  • Squad: Málaga sit sixth and Castellón fourth in La Liga 2 standings.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Málaga 38.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.6% (Δ+0%) | Castellón 33.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: D
FC Andorra Rank: D
Leganés Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: W
Mirandés Rank: D
Granada Rank: W
Almería Rank: W
Albacete Rank: D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
38.79%
Draw
27.59%
Away Castellón
33.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.3
33.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Castellón
Power Score
31.3
33.4
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Castellón

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
9 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
6
Goals
13
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
13
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:10:21+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
F. Montero Rubio
20 F. Montero Rubio
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
J. Dorrio Ortega
25 J. Dorrio Ortega
D. Brašanac
5 D. Brašanac
I. Merino Rodríguez
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Ruiz Rubio
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
C. Dotor Gonzalez
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
R. Matthys
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Sienra
4 A. Sienra
F. Brignani
3 F. Brignani
S. Ruiz Rodríguez
17 S. Ruiz Rodríguez
A. Jakobsen
19 A. Jakobsen
R. Pompeu da Silva
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
D. Hernández Barriuso
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
P. Santiago López
18 P. Santiago López
A. Calatrava Torrado
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
9 O. Camara

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity
30044
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.98
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.86
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio Midfielder
6.61
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.03
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Attacker
6.86
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Left Back
6.72
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Central Midfield
6.68
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Right Back
6.98
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.77
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.88
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac Central Midfield
6.49

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.83
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.81
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.66
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.91
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.2
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Right Back
6.75
17
Salva Ruiz
Salva Ruiz Right Back
6.62
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Central Midfield
6.78
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra Left Back
6.67
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Central Midfield
6.85
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Left Back
6.8

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Castellón holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Castellón a 2.1-point edge. External projection is Málaga 39.7%, draw 26.7%, and Castellón 33.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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