Luzern vs Winterthur Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Sportplatz Chrüzmatt Sun, 15 Mar - 3:30 PM
Super League
Luzern LUZ
1 Winner 2
Winterthur Winterthur
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 3:30 PM
Matteo Di Giusto - 15' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Nishan Burkart - 32'
Théo Golliard - 45+4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Luzern 1–2 Winterthur. The result saw Winterthur take the points. Winterthur showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 69%–31%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Winterthur showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
U. Schnyder
U. Schnyder
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
B. Zürcher
B. Zürcher
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
L. Hartmann
L. Hartmann
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
H. Qovanaj
H. Qovanaj
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Luzern M. Frick
M. Frick
VS
Winterthur P. Rahmen
P. Rahmen
1.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.61
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: 63 W
Young Boys Rank: 61 L
Thun Rank: 65 L
Basel Rank: 65 W
Zürich Rank: 53 W
Grasshopper Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 58 D
Servette Rank: 59 D
St. Gallen Rank: 62 L
Thun Rank: 65 L
St. Gallen Rank: 63 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Luzern
71.71%
Draw
16.86%
Away Winterthur
11.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.87
45.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Luzern
Winterthur
Power Score
56.87
45.79
League Position
7
12
Global Rank
550
855

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Luzern — Opponent-weighted form score
Winterthur — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Luzern Winterthur

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Luzern

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Winterthur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Luzern ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Winterthur
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.04
36.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.77
33.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Luzern -0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Winterthur +0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
Winterthur
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Luzern ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Winterthur
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Luzern Winterthur
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Luzern Winterthur
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
Winterthur
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Luzern LUZ Home
12 matches
Winterthur Winterthur Away
Match Record
7
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
7
Goals
29
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
29
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:24:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
P. Loretz
Switzerland
1 P. Loretz
P. Dorn
Germany
20 (C) P. Dorn
S. Knežević
Switzerland
5 S. Knežević
B. Freimann
Substitution
46 B. Freimann
R. Fernandes
Substitution
Switzerland
22 R. Fernandes
T. Owusu
Switzerland
24 T. Owusu
T. Abe
Japan
6 T. Abe
L. Silva Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
73 L. Silva Ferreira
M. Di Giusto
Switzerland
11 M. Di Giusto
O. Kabwit tshikomb
Substitution
DR Congo
16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
A. Vasovic
Substitution
Switzerland
19 A. Vasovic
S. Kapino
Greece
1 S. Kapino
L. Lüthi
Switzerland
21 L. Lüthi
L. Mühl
Germany
5 L. Mühl
R. Arnold
Substitution
Switzerland
16 (C) R. Arnold
S. Sidler
Switzerland
24 S. Sidler
P. Kasami
Substitution
Switzerland
23 P. Kasami
S. Cueni
Substitution
Switzerland
44 S. Cueni
F. Rohner
Substitution
Switzerland
27 F. Rohner
N. Burkart
Substitution
Switzerland
99 N. Burkart
T. Golliard
Switzerland
8 T. Golliard
A. Hunziker
Switzerland
17 A. Hunziker

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium
Sportplatz Chrüzmatt
Capacity
1800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Urs Schnyder
Benjamin Zürcher
Leroy Hartmann
Hajrim Qovanaj

Statistics

Possession
LUZ
64%
Winterthur
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 2
76 Dangerous attacks 28
69 Possession 31
6 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

26 Throwins 11
12 Goal Attempts 8
4 Goal Kicks 16
4 Successful Dribbles 4
21 Dribble Attempts 13
1 Penalties 0
83 Ball Safe 77
19 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
115 Attacks 73

Possession

490 Successful Passes 183
53 Long Passes 61
34 Successful Long Passes 23
12 Key Passes 8
582 Passes 271
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
84 Successful Passes Percentage 68

Defensive

3 Saves 4
13 Tackles 19
4 Interceptions 17

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 12
12 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Urs Schnyder

Starting XI ▼

1
Pascal Loretz
Pascal Loretz Goalkeeper
6.61
5
Stefan Knezevic
Stefan Knezevic Defender
6.35
20
Pius Dorn
Pius Dorn (C) Defender
6.54
22
Rúben Dantas Fernandes
Rúben Dantas Fernandes Defender
6.92
14
Andrejs Ciganiks
Andrejs Ciganiks
Defender64'
7.13
46
Bung Meng Freimann
Bung Meng Freimann Defender
6.43
45
Erblin Sadikaj
Erblin Sadikaj
Defender42'
6.62
6
Taisei Abe
Taisei Abe Midfielder
6.96
11
Matteo Di Giusto
Matteo Di Giusto Midfielder
8
24
Tyron Owusu
Tyron Owusu Midfielder
7.08
73
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira Midfielder
6.53
27
Lars Villiger
Lars Villiger
Attacker64'
6.38
16
Oscar Kabwit
Oscar Kabwit Attacker
6.62
39
Sandro Wyss
Sandro Wyss
Attacker75'
6.79
19
Andrej Vasovic
Andrej Vasovic Attacker
5.97
9
Adrian Grbic
Adrian Grbic
Attacker76'
6.72
Referee : Urs Schnyder

Starting XI ▼

1
Stefanos Kapino
Stefanos Kapino Goalkeeper
7.32
5
Lukas Mühl
Lukas Mühl Defender
6.69
16
Remo Arnold
Remo Arnold (C) Defender
6.59
33
Tibault Citherlet
Tibault Citherlet
Defender37'
6.78
21
Loïc Lüthi
Loïc Lüthi Defender
7.19
23
Pajtim Kasami
Pajtim Kasami Midfielder
6.83
7
Luca Zuffi
Luca Zuffi
Midfielder46'
6.47
24
Silvan Sidler
Silvan Sidler Midfielder
6.71
27
Fabian Rohner
Fabian Rohner Midfielder
6.65
11
Bafode Dansoko
Bafode Dansoko
Attacker80'
6.55
44
Stéphane Cueni
Stéphane Cueni Midfielder
6.61
45
Alexandre Jankewitz
Alexandre Jankewitz
Midfielder46'
6.58
8
Théo Golliard
Théo Golliard Attacker
8.04
17
Andrin Hunziker
Andrin Hunziker Attacker
7.59
99
Nishan Burkart
Nishan Burkart Attacker
7.98
14
Francis Momoh
Francis Momoh
Attacker51'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lars Villiger
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
80'
Event
Bafode Dansoko → Fabian Rohner
10th Substitution
Event
Adrian Grbic → Andrej Vasovic
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Sandro Wyss → Oscar Kabwit
8th Substitution
75'
69'
Event
Alexandre Jankewitz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Andrejs Ciganiks → Rúben Dantas Fernandes
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Lars Villiger → Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
7th Substitution
64'
57'
Event
Silvan Sidler
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Francis Momoh → Nishan Burkart
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Alexandre Jankewitz → Stéphane Cueni
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Luca Zuffi → Pajtim Kasami
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Théo Golliard
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Erblin Sadikaj → Bung Meng Freimann
2nd Substitution
42'
37'
Event
Tibault Citherlet → Remo Arnold
1st Substitution
32'
Event
Nishan Burkart
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
16'
Event
Fabian Rohner
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Di Giusto
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
15'
Event
Oscar Kabwit
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
6th Yellowcard
10'
Event
Var
8'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Winterthur exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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