Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
RZD Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
1 – 1
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
César Montes - 87'
Goal
|
Goal
Hazem Mastouri - 63' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Lokomotiv Moskva and Dynamo Makhachkala is finished, with the full-time score 1-1. The teams were level at 0-0 during the interval, and the stalemate persisted despite Lokomotiv enjoying the bulk of territorial control. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, particularly for Lokomotiv Moskva, who entered the fixture as the stronger side yet could only secure a share of the points. Lokomotiv dominated possession at 68 percent to Dynamo Makhachkala’s 32 percent, but neither team generated decisive chances. No expected goals data is available to measure underlying quality, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with projections. The draw ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection, even if the home side’s performance fell short of what had been anticipated. There were no red cards or other disruptive events to alter the flow of the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lokomotiv Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Levnikov
K. Levnikov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
D. Ermakov
D. Ermakov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
A. Vereteshkin
A. Vereteshkin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
E. Rubtsov
E. Rubtsov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
VS
Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Akron Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: L
Orenburg Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiv Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dynamo Makhachkala
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.47
18.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
Power Score
26.47
18.75
League Position
3
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiv Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.75
24.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.53
28.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiv Moskva +0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala -0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiv Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lokomotiv Moskva
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lokomotiv Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.23
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.03
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.01
Lokomotiv Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lokomotiv Moskva had peak pressure around 142'.
  • Lokomotiv Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
Lokomotiv Moskva Pressure Dynamo Makhachkala Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lokomotiv Moskva reached the top pressure at 142' (69.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Home
3 matches
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:04:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 A. Mitryushkin
M. Nenakhov
Substitution
Russia
24 M. Nenakhov
G. Nyamsi
Substitution
France
5 G. Nyamsi
C. Montes Castro
Mexico
23 C. Montes Castro
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
D. Prutsev
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Karpukas
Substitution
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
Z. Bakaev
Substitution
Russia
7 Z. Bakaev
A. Batrakov
Russia
83 A. Batrakov
A. Rudenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
N. Komlichenko
Russia
27 N. Komlichenko
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
S. Kagermazov
Substitution
Russia
13 S. Kagermazov
J. Tabidze
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
I. Akhmedov
43 I. Akhmedov
M. Azzi
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
T. Sundukov
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
E. Moubarik
Substitution
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
V. Pinto Domingos
Substitution
Angola
11 V. Pinto Domingos
G. Agalarov
Substitution
Russia
25 G. Agalarov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
RZD Arena
Capacity
28800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kirill Levnikov
Dmitri Ermakov
Andrey Vereteshkin
Efim Rubtsov

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiv Moskva
63%
Dynamo Makhachkala
37%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 2
71 Dangerous attacks 37
68 Possession 32
7 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Penalties 2
9 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
88 Ball Safe 95
0 Injuries 4
29 Successful Headers 24
8 Dribble Attempts 15
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
7 Goal Kicks 11
24 Throwins 16
2 Successful Dribbles 9

Attacking

110 Attacks 81

Possession

452 Successful Passes 162
60 Long Passes 74
551 Passes 260
82 Successful Passes Percentage 62
35 Successful Long Passes 23
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

10 Tackles 16
9 Interceptions 11
1 Saves 4

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 12
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
5
Gerzino Nyamsi
Gerzino Nyamsi Defender
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera
Midfielder80'
23
César Montes
César Montes Defender
24
Maksim Nenakhov
Maksim Nenakhov Defender
8
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Midfielder56'
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev Midfielder
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov
Midfielder71'
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson
Defender56'
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
74
Daniil Chevardin
Daniil Chevardin
Defender71'
27
Nikolay Komlichenko
Nikolay Komlichenko Attacker
Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
13
Soslan Kagermazov
Soslan Kagermazov Defender
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Midfielder46'
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
43
Ilyas Akhmedov
Ilyas Akhmedov Defender
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón
Midfielder70'
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Midfielder
11
Miro
Miro Attacker
19
Kirill Zinovich
Kirill Zinovich
Midfielder77'
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov Attacker
7
Hazem Mastouri
Hazem Mastouri
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
César Montes
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
87'
Event
Lucas Vera → Gerzino Nyamsi
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
79'
79'
Event
Hazem Mastouri
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Kirill Zinovich → Miro
8th Substitution
Event
Nikita Saltykov → Zelimkhan Bakaev
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Daniil Chevardin → Artem Karpukas
6th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Andrés Alarcón → Mehdi Moubarik
5th Substitution
Event
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
63'
Event
Hazem Mastouri
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Lucas Fasson → Aleksandr Rudenko
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Vladislav Sarvelyi → Maksim Nenakhov
4th Substitution
56'
46'
Event
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad → Soslan Kagermazov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Hazem Mastouri → Gamid Agalarov
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Soslan Kagermazov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lokomotiv Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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