Lokomotiv Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
RZD Arena Mon, 9 Mar - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
2 – 2
Akhmat Grozny AKH
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 1:30 PM
Lucas Fasson - 45+2'
Danil Prutsev - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Georgiy Melkadze - 24'
Maksim Samorodov - 26'

CONTEXT

The match between Lokomotiv Moskva and Akhmat Grozny has concluded, with Akhmat Grozny securing a 2-1 away victory. All the scoring occurred in an action-packed first half, allowing the visitors to carry a 2-1 lead into the break and hold on until the final whistle. Given that Lokomotiv Moskva was identified as the stronger team, Akhmat Grozny’s triumph represents a significant deviation from baseline expectations. Despite the unexpected loss, Lokomotiv Moskva controlled the ball, holding a 59% possession advantage over Akhmat Grozny's 41%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, meaning it is impossible to evaluate whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying chance creation. The match flowed cleanly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side. While specific pre-match market probabilities were completely flat, the overarching analytical system still flagged the outcome as market aligned. Additionally, the post-match efficiency shift was recorded to be exactly in line with expected patterns. Ultimately, Akhmat Grozny managed to absorb the pressure from the favored hosts and make their limited possession count to claim all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Akhmat Grozny showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Cheremnykh
M. Cheremnykh
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
P. Kukuyan
P. Kukuyan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
A. Stipidi
A. Stipidi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
A. Filipkin
A. Filipkin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
VS
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
2.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Rostov Rank: W
Krasnodar Rank: D
Orenburg Rank: W
Zenit Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 10 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiv Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akhmat Grozny
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.33
43.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiv Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
Power Score
68.33
43.33
League Position
3
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiv Moskva Akhmat Grozny

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.64
18.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.90
23.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiv Moskva +0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Akhmat Grozny -0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiv Moskva Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Akhmat Grozny
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Home
11 matches
Akhmat Grozny AKH Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
5
Goals
19
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
19
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:02:41+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
RZD Arena
Capacity
28800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mikhail Cheremnykh
Pavel Kukuyan
Aleksey Stipidi
Andrey Filipkin

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiv Moskva
58%
AKH
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 2
59 Dangerous attacks 35
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 25
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Throwins 20
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
18 Dribble Attempts 21
23 Successful Headers 16
7 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Goal Kicks 6
2 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 3
9 Goal Attempts 6
74 Ball Safe 74

Attacking

90 Attacks 81

Possession

47 Long Passes 65
25 Successful Long Passes 23
300 Successful Passes 174
386 Passes 267
78 Successful Passes Percentage 65
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

21 Tackles 19
12 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 2

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
27 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
24 Fouls 11

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Ousmane N’Dong
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Alexander Silyanov → Maksim Nenakhov
7th Substitution
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov → Lechi Sadulaev
5th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Daniil Khlusevich → Maksim Sidorov
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → Maksim Samorodov
4th Substitution
Event
Aleksey Batrakov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Lucas Vera → Artem Karpukas
2nd Substitution
60'
60'
Event
Rifat Zhemaletdinov → S. Pryakhin
3rd Substitution
Event
Danil Prutsev
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
48'
Event
Artem Karpukas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Lucas Fasson
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
45+2'
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi → César Montes
1st Substitution
30'
26'
Event
Maksim Samorodov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
24'
Event
Georgiy Melkadze
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Akhmat Grozny exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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