LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Cherkasy Arena Mon, 13 Apr - 10:00 AM
Premier League
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy
2 – 2
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 10:00 AM
Round 23 Regular Season
Valeriy Bondar - 28' (Own Goal)
Mark Assinor - 45+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Artur Ryabov - 11' (Own Goal)
Eguinaldo - 34'

CONTEXT

The match between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. All four goals arrived before half-time, leaving the scoreline unchanged across a tense second period. Pre-match expectations positioned Shakhtar Donetsk as the stronger side and clear favorites for victory. The final result, however, represented a significant deviation from those forecasts, particularly for the visitors. Shakhtar controlled the game with 68 percent possession to LNZ Cherkasy’s 32 percent yet could not convert that dominance into a win. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, but the outcome did not align with the pre-match projection of a Shakhtar success. No red cards were shown and no major disciplinary events altered the flow. The draw therefore reflected a resilient defensive effort from the home side against a team expected to claim all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Shandor
O. Shandor
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.51
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
D. Marchenko
D. Marchenko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.51
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
S. Marulin
S. Marulin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.51
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
O. Kogut
O. Kogut
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.51
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
LNZ Cherkasy V. Ponomarov
V. Ponomarov
VS
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
2.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.54
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Oleksandria Rank: W
Veres Rank: W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: W
Oleksandria Rank: W
Veres Rank: W
Karpaty Rank: W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LNZ Cherkasy
22.11%
Draw
30.02%
Away Shakhtar Donetsk
47.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
LNZ Cherkasy
+16.79%
Draw
-57.71%
Shakhtar Donetsk
+40.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.16
41.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LNZ Cherkasy
Shakhtar Donetsk
Power Score
35.16
41.2
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LNZ Cherkasy — Opponent-weighted form score
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LNZ Cherkasy Shakhtar Donetsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LNZ Cherkasy

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LNZ Cherkasy ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shakhtar Donetsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.91
32.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.65
28.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LNZ Cherkasy -0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk +0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LNZ Cherkasy
Shakhtar Donetsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LNZ Cherkasy ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shakhtar Donetsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LNZ Cherkasy Shakhtar Donetsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LNZ Cherkasy Shakhtar Donetsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LNZ Cherkasy
Shakhtar Donetsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
LNZ Cherkasy
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
LNZ Cherkasy Shakhtar Donetsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
LNZ Cherkasy 0.16
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
LNZ Cherkasy Shakhtar Donetsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
LNZ Cherkasy 0.05
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.04
LNZ Cherkasy
Shakhtar Donetsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LNZ Cherkasy had peak pressure around 30'.
  • LNZ Cherkasy started the game with stronger pressure.
LNZ Cherkasy Pressure SHK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LNZ Cherkasy reached the top pressure at 30' (75.62).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy Home
5 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
6
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-15T11:31:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Palamarchuk
Ukraine
12 O. Palamarchuk
G. Pasich
Ukraine
11 G. Pasich
O. Gorin
Ukraine
25 O. Gorin
N. Muravskyi
Ukraine
34 (C) N. Muravskyi
A. Drambayev
Ukraine
14 A. Drambayev
D. Kuzyk
Ukraine
17 D. Kuzyk
A. Ryabov
Ukraine
16 A. Ryabov
R. Didyk
Ukraine
29 R. Didyk
Y. Pastukh
Ukraine
19 Y. Pastukh
D. Kravchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
23 D. Kravchuk
M. Assinor
Substitution
Ghana
90 M. Assinor
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
P. Azevedo Pereira
Brazil
13 P. Azevedo Pereira
M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
Brazil
4 M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
V. Bondar
Ukraine
5 V. Bondar
Y. Konoplia
Ukraine
26 Y. Konoplia
E. Nazaryna
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
E. de Sousa Lemos
Substitution
Brazil
7 E. de Sousa Lemos
P. Delmino da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
A. Bondarenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Bondarenko
A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
Substitution
Brazil
30 A. Santana Lopes da Fonseca
L. Traore
Burkina Faso
2 L. Traore

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Cherkasy Arena
Capacity
10321
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksandr Shandor
Denys Marchenko
Stanislav Marulin
Oleg Kogut

Statistics

Possession
LNZ Cherkasy
36%
SHK
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Shots 6
45 Dangerous attacks 44
32 Possession 68
7 Corners 4
1 Free kicks 2
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 6
0 Assists 1
20 Throwins 20
12 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Successful Dribbles 7
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47

Attacking

71 Attacks 68

Possession

175 Successful Passes 494
249 Passes 552
32 Successful Long Passes 30
70 Successful Passes Percentage 89
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 64
57 Long Passes 47

Defensive

5 Saves 1
5 Tackles 5
7 Interceptions 19

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4
16 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

9 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Shandor

Starting XI ▼

12
Oleksiy Palamarchuk
Oleksiy Palamarchuk Goalkeeper
7.25
11
Gennadiy Pasich
Gennadiy Pasich Defender
5.95
14
Oleksandr Drambayev
Oleksandr Drambayev Defender
6.3
17
Denys Kuzyk
Denys Kuzyk Defender
6.55
25
Oleg Gorin
Oleg Gorin Defender
6.74
34
Nazariy Muravskyi
Nazariy Muravskyi (C) Defender
6.56
16
Artur Ryabov
Artur Ryabov Midfielder
6.44
19
Yevgeniy Pastukh
Yevgeniy Pastukh Midfielder
5.93
29
Roman Didyk
Roman Didyk Midfielder
6.15
23
Danylo Kravchuk
Danylo Kravchuk Attacker
6.6
22
Yegor Tverdokhlib
Yegor Tverdokhlib
Attacker79'
6.51
90
Mark Assinor
Mark Assinor Attacker
6.99
7
Artur Mykytyshyn
Artur Mykytyshyn
Attacker63'
6.69
Referee : Oleksandr Shandor

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
6.48
4
Marlon
Marlon Defender
6.92
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar Defender
7.06
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
6.61
26
Yukhym Konoplya
Yukhym Konoplya Defender
7.27
7
Eguinaldo
Eguinaldo Midfielder
7.28
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko
Defender86'
6.54
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
6.19
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko
Midfielder46'
6.6
21
Artem Bondarenko
Artem Bondarenko Midfielder
6.66
11
Newerton
Newerton
Midfielder76'
6.6
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
7.45
30
Alisson
Alisson Midfielder
6.21
68
Prosper Obah
Prosper Obah
Midfielder90+1'
6.63
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré Attacker
6.98

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Prosper Obah → Alisson
6th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Valeriy Bondar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Alisson
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
86'
Event
Mykola Matvienko → Eguinaldo
5th Substitution
Event
Yegor Tverdokhlib → Danylo Kravchuk
4th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Newerton → Artem Bondarenko
3rd Substitution
Event
Artur Mykytyshyn → Mark Assinor
2nd Substitution
63'
46'
Event
Oleg Ocheretko → Pedrinho
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mark Assinor
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+4'
34'
Event
Eguinaldo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Valeriy Bondar
Own Goal / 2nd Own Goal
28'
11'
Event
Artur Ryabov
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Shakhtar Donetsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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