Lillestrøm vs Start Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Åråsen Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 12:00 PM
Eliteserien
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
3 Winner 1
Start Start
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Markus Karlsbakk - 17', 45+3'
Felix Vá - 68'
Goal
|
Goal
Ousmane Diallo Toure - 80'

CONTEXT

The match between Lillestrøm and Start is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had heavily favored Lillestrøm. The home side underperformed relative to those forecasts, producing an outcome that did not align with the pre-match projection and was not consistent with the anticipated result. Lillestrøm held 60 percent possession to Start’s 40 percent but were unable to turn that control into a victory. No xG data is available to assess chance quality, and no red cards occurred to alter the flow of play. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the final score still represented a clear shortfall for the stronger team. Overall the draw highlighted Lillestrøm’s inability to meet the level projected before kickoff. Start claimed a valuable point on the road against a side expected to dominate, underscoring the gap between expectation and execution across the full match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lillestrøm showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Saggi
R. Saggi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
A. Al-Hatem
A. Al-Hatem
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
J. Valstadsve
J. Valstadsve
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
A. Olav Dale
A. Olav Dale
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
VS
Start A. Karadas
A. Karadas
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.67
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Molde Rank: W
Aalesund Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: D
Aalesund Rank: D
KFUM Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 5 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lillestrøm
97.84%
Draw
1.92%
Away Start
0.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.55
14.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lillestrøm
Start
Power Score
29.55
14.69
League Position
3
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Start — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lillestrøm Start

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Start

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lillestrøm ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Start
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.58
30.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.75
22.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lillestrøm -0.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Start +0.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lillestrøm
Start
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lillestrøm ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Start
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lillestrøm Start
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lillestrøm Start
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lillestrøm
Start
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lillestrøm
vs
Start
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lillestrøm Start
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lillestrøm 0.22
Start 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lillestrøm Start
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lillestrøm 0.02
Start 0.06
Lillestrøm
Start
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Start had peak pressure around 86'.
  • Lillestrøm started the game with stronger pressure.
Lillestrøm Pressure Start Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Start reached the top pressure at 86' (91.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Home
22 matches
Start Start Away
Match Record
10
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
10
Goals
29
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
29
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:03:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
L. Ranger
Norway
2 L. Ranger
S. Foss
Norway
5 S. Foss
L. Gabrielsen
Norway
28 L. Gabrielsen
S. Ottesen
Norway
3 S. Ottesen
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
S. Drammeh
Substitution
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
M. Karlsbakk
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
E. Bugale Kitolano
Substitution
Norway
17 E. Bugale Kitolano
V. António Félix
Substitution
Angola
20 V. António Félix
T. Lehne Olsen
Substitution
Norway
10 T. Lehne Olsen
J. Larsen
Denmark
1 J. Larsen
T. Strannegard
Sweden
16 T. Strannegard
K. Tønnessen
Norway
19 K. Tønnessen
J. Norheim
Substitution
Norway
6 J. Norheim
E. Reitan
Norway
29 E. Reitan
M. Ugland
Norway
18 M. Ugland
E. Segberg
Norway
23 E. Segberg
L. Gausdal
Substitution
30 L. Gausdal
E. Schulze
Substitution
Norway
11 E. Schulze
J. Cornelius
Substitution
17 J. Cornelius
J. Ampofo
Substitution
Ghana
22 J. Ampofo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Åråsen Stadion
Capacity
12250
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rohit Saggi
Ali Al-Hatem
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Anders Olav Dale

Statistics

Possession
Lillestrøm
57%
Start
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 6
51 Dangerous attacks 46
60 Possession 40
3 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
9 Goal Kicks 4
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
29 Throwins 25
14 Dribble Attempts 13
89 Ball Safe 65
8 Goal Attempts 6
7 Successful Dribbles 3
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

102 Attacks 107

Possession

6 Key Passes 10
34 Successful Long Passes 38
390 Successful Passes 204
79 Successful Passes Percentage 64
75 Long Passes 95
496 Passes 321
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

4 Saves 2
20 Tackles 18
8 Interceptions 13

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 7
8 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
3
Sturla Ottesen
Sturla Ottesen Defender
5
Sander Moen Foss
Sander Moen Foss Defender
28
Ruben Gabrielsen
Ruben Gabrielsen Defender
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
2
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Midfielder
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker72'
17
Eric Kitolano
Eric Kitolano Midfielder
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim
Attacker87'
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Midfielder
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Defender90+6'
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
10
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Thomas Lehne Olsen Attacker
9
Kparobo Arierhi
Kparobo Arierhi
Attacker72'
Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

1
J. Pryts
J. Pryts Goalkeeper
6
John Norheim
John Norheim Defender
5
O. Jebali
O. Jebali
Defender46'
16
T. Strannegård
T. Strannegård Defender
18
M. Ugland
M. Ugland Defender
19
Kristoffer Tønnessen
Kristoffer Tønnessen Defender
29
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Erlend Dahl Reitan Defender
11
E. Schulze
E. Schulze Midfielder
14
Markus Soomets
Markus Soomets
Midfielder72'
23
Erlend Segberg
Erlend Segberg Midfielder
30
L. Gausdal
L. Gausdal Midfielder
20
H. Lorentzen
H. Lorentzen
Attacker61'
17
J. Cornelius
J. Cornelius Attacker
27
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Defender61'
22
J. Ampofo
J. Ampofo Attacker
7
Alexander Figueiredo Gurendal
Alexander Figueiredo Gurendal
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen → Felix Vá
9th Substitution
90+6'
Event
Camil Jebara
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+2'
Event
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
O. Jebali
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Y. Ibrahimaj
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Gustav Nyheim → Eric Kitolano
8th Substitution
87'
80'
Event
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Camil Jebara → Salieu Drammeh
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Kparobo Arierhi → Thomas Lehne Olsen
4th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Alexander Figueiredo Gurendal → J. Ampofo
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Markus Soomets → E. Schulze
7th Substitution
Event
Felix Vá
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
62'
Event
Erlend Segberg
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sturla Ottesen
Goal disallowed
61'
61'
Event
Ousmane Diallo Toure → J. Cornelius
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
H. Lorentzen → L. Gausdal
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
O. Jebali → John Norheim
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Markus Karlsbakk
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+3'
23'
Event
M. Ugland
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Markus Karlsbakk
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
17'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lillestrøm exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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