Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego Sat, 11 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Rafal Augustyniak - 82' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Pawel Bochniewicz - 90+6'

CONTEXT

The match between Legia Warszawa and Górnik Zabrze is now finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The teams went into half-time level at 0-0, with each side scoring once after the break. No red cards were issued and the contest passed without major disciplinary incidents. Pre-match assessments positioned Legia Warszawa as the considerably stronger side, yet the draw marked a significant deviation from those expectations, particularly disappointing for the home team. Górnik Zabrze claimed the larger share of possession at 57% to Legia’s 43%, though expected goals data was unavailable to measure chance quality. The final result did not align with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns rather than showing extreme variance. Overall the outcome highlighted Górnik’s ability to frustrate a favored opponent on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Kos
D. Kos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
B. Heinig
B. Heinig
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
D. Bohonos
D. Bohonos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
?. Karski
?. Karski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.51
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
VS
Górnik Zabrze M. Gašparík
M. Gašparík
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Katowice Rank: L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Legia Warszawa
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Górnik Zabrze
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.56
25.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
Power Score
28.56
25.48
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.05
16.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.84
41.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Legia Warszawa +2.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Górnik Zabrze -2.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Legia Warszawa
vs
Górnik Zabrze
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Legia Warszawa 0.19
Górnik Zabrze 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Legia Warszawa 0.02
Górnik Zabrze 0.01
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Legia Warszawa had peak pressure around 59'.
  • Legia Warszawa started the game with stronger pressure.
Legia Warszawa Pressure Górnik Zabrze Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Legia Warszawa reached the top pressure at 59' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Home
40 matches
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Away
Match Record
26
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
26
Goals
83
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
83
+38
Goal Difference
-38
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T03:04:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
R. Pankov
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
P. Wszołek
Poland
7 P. Wszołek
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
D. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
44 D. Szymański
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
W. Urbański
Substitution
Poland
53 W. Urbański
M. Rajovic
Substitution
Denmark
29 M. Rajovic
R. Adamski
Poland
9 R. Adamski
M. Łubik
Poland
1 M. Łubik
E. Janža
Substitution
Slovenia
64 E. Janža
P. Bochniewicz
Poland
4 P. Bochniewicz
R. Janicki
Poland
26 R. Janicki
M. Sáček
Czech Republic
61 M. Sáček
L. Ambros
Substitution
Czech Republic
18 L. Ambros
P. Hellebrand
Czech Republic
8 P. Hellebrand
L. Sadílek
Substitution
Czech Republic
13 L. Sadílek
O. Zmrzlý
Czech Republic
67 O. Zmrzlý
S. Liseth
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Liseth
M. Khlan
Substitution
Ukraine
33 M. Khlan

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
Capacity
31800
Attendance
26635
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Damian Kos
Bartosz Heinig
Dariusz Bohonos
Łukasz Karski

Statistics

Possession
Legia Warszawa
45%
Górnik Zabrze
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 2
73 Dangerous attacks 52
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
66 Ball Safe 107
7 Goal Attempts 5
0 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
7 Goal Kicks 10
13 Throwins 14
19 Dribble Attempts 16
26 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
5 Successful Dribbles 10
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
99 Attacks 118

Possession

51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
81 Successful Passes Percentage 84
47 Long Passes 64
24 Successful Long Passes 27
294 Successful Passes 422
362 Passes 505
11 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 0
8 Interceptions 4
18 Tackles 21

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 13
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Midfielder
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Midfielder
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender85'
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
55
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender85'
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
77
Ermal Krasniqi
Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker85'
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Wojciech Urbanski Attacker
82
Kacper Urbanski
Kacper Urbanski
Midfielder67'
Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcel Lubik
Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
4
Pawel Bochniewicz
Pawel Bochniewicz Defender
26
Rafal Janicki
Rafal Janicki Defender
61
Michal Sacek
Michal Sacek Defender
64
Erik Janza
Erik Janza Defender
17
Kamil Lukoszek
Kamil Lukoszek
Midfielder85'
8
Patrik Hellebrand
Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
13
Lukas Sadilek
Lukas Sadilek Midfielder
36
Michal Rakoczy
Michal Rakoczy
Midfielder85'
18
Lukas Ambros
Lukas Ambros Midfielder
14
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Jaroslaw Kubicki
Midfielder63'
23
Sondre Liseth
Sondre Liseth Attacker
7
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Midfielder46'
33
Maksym Khlan
Maksym Khlan Attacker
15
Roberto Massimo
Roberto Massimo
Midfielder75'
67
Ondrej Zmrzly
Ondrej Zmrzly Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Pawel Bochniewicz
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Artur Jedrzejczyk → Damian Szymanski
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Ermal Krasniqi → Mileta Rajović
6th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Kamil Lukoszek → Erik Janza
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Michal Rakoczy → Lukas Sadilek
8th Substitution
Event
Rafal Augustyniak
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
82'
Event
Kacper Urbanski
Penalty awarded
80'
Event
Mileta Rajović
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
79'
75'
Event
Roberto Massimo → Maksym Khlan
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Maksym Khlan
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Kacper Urbanski → Wojciech Urbanski
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Damian Szymanski
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
63'
Event
Jaroslaw Kubicki → Lukas Ambros
2nd Substitution
Event
Wojciech Urbanski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
46'
Event
Yvan Ikia Dimi → Sondre Liseth
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Patrik Hellebrand
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Lukas Sadilek
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pawel Wszolek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Legia Warszawa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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