Leganés vs Albacete Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Butarque Sat, 11 Apr - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Leganés LEG
2 Winner 1
Albacete ALB
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Álex Millán - 47'
Juan Cruz - 64'
Goal
|
Goal
Alex Rubio - 38'
Álex Millán 90+4' Red Card
Álex Millán 90+7' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Leganés and Albacete is now finished, ending 2-1 to the home side. Trailing 0-1 at halftime, Leganés recovered in the second period to secure the win despite significant adversity. Pre-match expectations pointed heavily toward a Leganés victory, and the result showed only minimal deviation from that outlook, with the home team ultimately delivering as projected. Albacete entered as the stronger side on overall metrics, yet Leganés prevailed. Possession favored the winners at 57 percent to 43 percent, though no xG data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. Two red cards for Leganés created clear red-card distortion that shaped second-half play, forcing the home team to adapt while still finding a way to turn the scoreline around. This late adjustment proved decisive in a contest that tested their resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leganés showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Méndez Mateo
J. Méndez Mateo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Ortuño Sierra
M. Ortuño Sierra
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
?. Canovas García Villarrubia
?. Canovas García Villarrubia
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
D. Palencia Caballero
D. Palencia Caballero
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
VS
Albacete A. González Fernández
A. González Fernández
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: L
Real Zaragoza Rank: D
Málaga Rank: D
Ceuta Rank: W
Real Valladolid Rank: L
SD Eibar Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: L
Mirandés Rank: D
Castellón Rank: D
Racing Santander Rank: W
Las Palmas Rank: W
Huesca Rank: D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leganés
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Albacete
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.98
26.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leganés
Albacete
Power Score
20.98
26.7
League Position
14
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Albacete — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leganés Albacete

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Albacete

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Albacete
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.00
24.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.30
40.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leganés +1.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Albacete -1.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Albacete
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Albacete
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leganés Albacete
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leganés Albacete
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Albacete
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Leganés
vs
Albacete
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Leganés Albacete
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Leganés 0.36
Albacete 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Leganés Albacete
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Leganés 0.03
Albacete 0.04
Leganés
Albacete
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEG had peak pressure around 37'.
  • LEG started the game with stronger pressure.
LEG Pressure ALB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEG reached the top pressure at 37' (87.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leganés LEG Home
12 matches
Albacete ALB Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
6
Goals
18
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
18
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:08:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
M. Leiva Calvo
36 M. Leiva Calvo
I. Miquel i Pons
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
E. Franquesa Dolz
Spain
15 E. Franquesa Dolz
S. Cisse
Substitution
Guinea
8 S. Cisse
A. Diawara
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
L. Lopes
Cape Verde
11 L. Lopes
G. Melero Manzanares
Substitution
Spain
16 G. Melero Manzanares
J. Díaz Espósito
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Díaz Espósito
A. Millán Iranzo
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Millán Iranzo
R. Lizoáin Cruz
Spain
13 R. Lizoáin Cruz
C. Neva Tey
Substitution
Spain
21 C. Neva Tey
L. López Mármol
Spain
22 L. López Mármol
J. Vallejo Lázaro
Spain
24 J. Vallejo Lázaro
L. Aguado Herrera
Substitution
Spain
2 L. Aguado Herrera
J. Lazo Romero
Substitution
Spain
16 J. Lazo Romero
A. Pacheco Ruiz
Spain
6 A. Pacheco Ruiz
A. Meléndez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
17 A. Meléndez Ruiz
H. Martínez González
Substitution
Spain
26 H. Martínez González
J. Betancor Sánchez
Spain
10 J. Betancor Sánchez
A. Rubio Roldan
Spain
19 A. Rubio Roldan

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Capacity
12454
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Joan Méndez Mateo
Miguel Ortuño Sierra
?. Canovas García Villarrubia
Daniel Palencia Caballero

Statistics

Possession
LEG
56%
ALB
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
56 Dangerous attacks 29
57 Possession 43
10 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 3
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
13 Goal Attempts 6
87 Ball Safe 82
4 Goal Kicks 6
10 Dribble Attempts 6
20 Throwins 21
2 Assists 0
3 Injuries 2
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

102 Attacks 91
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
27 Successful Long Passes 23
460 Passes 355
386 Successful Passes 281
56 Long Passes 46
17 Key Passes 7

Defensive

2 Saves 2
9 Interceptions 12
12 Tackles 13

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 3
26 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano Goalkeeper
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
15
Enric Franquesa
Enric Franquesa Defender
36
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Marcos Leiva Calvo Defender
8
Seydouba Cissé
Seydouba Cissé Midfielder
20
Óscar Plano
Óscar Plano
Attacker57'
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Midfielder
17
Naim García
Naim García
Attacker80'
11
Duk
Duk Midfielder
16
Gonzalo Melero
Gonzalo Melero Midfielder
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao
Midfielder67'
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Midfielder
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán Attacker
19
Diego García
Diego García
Attacker81'
Referee : Daniel Palencia Caballero

Starting XI ▼

13
Raúl Lizoain
Raúl Lizoain Goalkeeper
2
Lorenzo Aguado
Lorenzo Aguado Defender
15
Fran Gámez
Fran Gámez
Defender79'
21
Carlos Neva
Carlos Neva Defender
14
Victor San Bartolome Prieto
Victor San Bartolome Prieto
Midfielder78'
22
Lluís López
Lluís López Defender
24
Jesús Vallejo
Jesús Vallejo Defender
6
Antonio Pacheco
Antonio Pacheco Midfielder
16
José Carlos Lazo
José Carlos Lazo Midfielder
3
Jonathan Gómez
Jonathan Gómez
Defender68'
17
Ale Meléndez
Ale Meléndez Midfielder
20
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa
Attacker78'
26
Capi
Capi Midfielder
8
Martín Fernández
Martín Fernández
Midfielder83'
10
Jefté Betancor
Jefté Betancor Attacker
19
Alex Rubio
Alex Rubio Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Jonathan Gómez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Álex Millán
2nd Redcard
90+7'
Event
Álex Millán
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+4'
83'
Event
Martín Fernández → Capi
9th Substitution
Event
Diego García → Álex Millán
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Naim García → Juan Cruz
7th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Fran Gámez → Lorenzo Aguado
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Victor San Bartolome Prieto → Carlos Neva
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa → Ale Meléndez
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Jonathan Gómez → José Carlos Lazo
3rd Substitution
Event
Carlos Guirao → Gonzalo Melero
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Juan Cruz
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Óscar Plano → Seydouba Cissé
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Álex Millán
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
José Carlos Lazo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Alex Rubio
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
6th Yellowcard
9'
Event
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
9'
2'
Event
5th Yellowcard
2'
Event
Capi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leganés exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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