Lazio vs Atalanta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Fri, 6 Mar - 2:10 PM
Coppa Italia
Lazio LAZ
2 – 2
Atalanta ATA
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:10 PM
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru - 47'
Boulaye Dia - 87'
Goal
|
Goal
Mario Pašalić - 51'
Yunus Musah - 89'

CONTEXT

The match between Lazio and Atalanta has officially finished in a competitive 2-2 draw. Following a quiet first half that ended completely scoreless, both teams found their attacking rhythm in the second period to share the points at full-time. Pre-match market expectations suggested a tight affair, giving Atalanta a slight edge with a 37.2% win probability compared to Lazio's 31.9%. Because the match ended in a draw, which carried a 31% pre-match probability, the final outcome did not align with the outright market favorite. This resulted in a significant deviation level of 69%, specifically impacting Lazio based on pre-match projections. On the pitch, the sides were evenly matched in standard metrics. Atalanta held a narrow 51% possession share against Lazio's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the 2-2 outcome was consistent with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with expectations, reflecting a balanced second-half performance. Finally, the game concluded without any major disciplinary impacts or numerical disadvantages, as there were no red cards issued to either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lazio showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Tegoni
A. Tegoni
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Sacchi
J. Sacchi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Manganiello
G. Manganiello
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Bindoni
D. Bindoni
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: D
AC Milan Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 10 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
31.86%
Draw
30.96%
Away Atalanta
37.19%
Power Ranking data not available.

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Atalanta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atalanta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.04
24.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.31
17.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lazio -0.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Atalanta +0.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Atalanta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio
vs
Atalanta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio Atalanta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio Atalanta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Lazio
Atalanta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
2 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0.81
xG
0.88
0.88
xGA
0.81

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:24:05+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:10 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity
72698
Attendance
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alberto Tegoni
Juan Luca Sacchi
Gianluca Manganiello
Daniele Bindoni

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
50%
ATA
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
47 Dangerous attacks 48
49 Possession 51
1 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

19 Throwins 12
17 Dribble Attempts 9
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
10 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Goal Kicks 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
116 Ball Safe 128
5 Goal Attempts 7
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

100 Attacks 98

Possession

438 Successful Passes 459
505 Passes 519
87 Successful Passes Percentage 88
59 Long Passes 46
43 Successful Long Passes 27
73 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
4 Key Passes 8

Defensive

12 Interceptions 10
11 Tackles 13
1 Saves 1

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 4
11 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

5 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Isak Hien
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Yunus Musah
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Boulaye Dia
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
85'
Event
Gianluca Scamacca → Nikola Krstović
9th Substitution
Event
Reda Belahyane → Kenneth Taylor
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Boulaye Dia → Daniel Maldini
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Tijjani Noslin → Mattia Zaccagni 
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Kamaldeen Sulemana → Lazar Samardžić
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Honest Ahanor → Sead Kolasinac
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Mario Pašalić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Maurizio Sarri
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
66'
66'
Event
Raffaele Palladino
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Cancellieri → Gustav Isaksen
1st Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Odilon Kossounou → Giorgio Scalvini
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Yunus Musah → Marten de Roon
3rd Substitution
51'
Event
Mario Pašalić
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Marten de Roon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Raffaele Palladino
4th Yellowcard
9'
Event
Nikola Krstović
Goal disallowed

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Isak Hien of Atalanta receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
90
Update Update
Nuno Tavares from Lazio earns a free kick on the left flank.
90
Update Update
Honest Ahanor of Atalanta is awarded a free kick in their own half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Honest Ahanor of Atalanta.
90
Update Update
Isak Hien commits a foul for Atalanta.
90
Update Update
Honest Ahanor from Atalanta earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
90
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio earns a free kick on the right flank.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between Lazio and Atalanta.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Lazio 2, Atalanta 2. Yunus Musah from Atalanta scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lazio takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Atalanta. Boulaye Dia finds the back of the net with a right-footed strike from inside the penalty area.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Gianluca Scamacca comes on to take the place of Nikola Krstovic.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Reda Belahyane comes on in place of Kenneth Taylor.
82
Update Update
Match interruption - Atalanta.
82
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. He was set up by Fisayo Dele-Bashiru.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Honest Ahanor comes on to take the place of Sead Kolasinac.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Boulaye Dia comes on to take the place of Daniel Maldini.
76
Update Update
Match interruption - Lazio.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Boulaye Dia comes on to take the place of Daniel Maldini.
76
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Kamaldeen Sulemana comes on to take the place of Lazar Samardzic.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Tijjani Noslin comes on to take the place of Mattia Zaccagni.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Honest Ahanor comes on to take the place of Sead Kolasinac.
74
Corner Corner
Atalanta is awarded a corner kick after Matteo Cancellieri allowed the ball to go out of play.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Pasalic from Atalanta receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
69
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
69
Update Update
Mario Pasalic commits a foul for Atalanta.
67
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
65
Update Update
The match is currently paused due to an injury to Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Yunus Musah comes on to take the place of Marten de Roon.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Odilon Kossounou comes on to replace Giorgio Scalvini, who has been injured.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Matteo Cancellieri comes on to take the place of Gustav Isaksen.
63
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
62
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atalanta after Nuno Tavares allowed the ball to go out of play.
61
Update Update
The game has been paused due to an injury to Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta.
61
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
61
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Alessio Romagnoli of Lazio directed a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the crossbar. The chance was set up by Mattia Zaccagni, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
59
Corner Corner
A shot attempt by Kenneth Taylor of Lazio was saved by Marco Carnesecchi from Atalanta. Taylor struck the ball with his left foot from outside the penalty area, but Carnesecchi managed to stop it in the bottom left corner, with an assist from Gustav Isaksen.
59
Corner Corner
Lazio has been awarded a corner kick, following a save made by Marco Carnesecchi.
57
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Lazar Samardzic from Atalanta takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
56
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio earns a free kick in his team's defensive area.
56
Update Update
Mario Gila from Lazio earns a free kick in his own half.
56
Update Update
Davide Zappacosta commits a foul for Atalanta.
56
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic commits a foul for Atalanta.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Mario Pasalic of Atalanta.
55
Update Update
Adam Marusic from Lazio is awarded a free kick in their own half.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's 1-1 between Lazio and Atalanta. Mario Pasalic scores for Atalanta with a powerful left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net.
51
Update Update
Goal! It's now Lazio 1, Atalanta 1. Mario Pasalic scores for Atalanta with a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lazio takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Atalanta. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru finds the net with a right-footed strike from the center of the penalty area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score tied at 0-0 between Lazio and Atalanta.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mario Pasalic of Atalanta heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes over the bar. The cross was delivered by Davide Zappacosta.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Lazio 0, Atalanta 0.
44
Update Update
Danilo Cataldi of Lazio commits a handball.
41
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta tries a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Lazar Samardzic.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta tried a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
38
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Alessio Romagnoli from Lazio.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
34
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Lazar Samardzic from Atalanta took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the right. The attempt was set up by Lorenzo Bernasconi after a corner kick.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Kenneth Taylor allowed the ball to go out.
31
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Gustav Isaksen of Lazio takes a long-range left-footed attempt from the right side, but it's blocked.
25
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio commits a foul.
25
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
23
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marten de Roon from Atalanta receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
23
Update Update
Marten de Roon commits a foul for Atalanta.
22
Update Update
Daniel Maldini from Lazio earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
22
Update Update
Isak Hien commits a foul for Atalanta.
18
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta commits a foul.
18
Update Update
Danilo Cataldi from Lazio is awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
16
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta commits a foul.
16
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mario Pasalic from Atalanta attempted a header from the center of the box after a set piece.
11
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
11
Update Update
Danilo Cataldi from Lazio commits a foul.
11
Update Update
Lazio has been flagged for offside. Mattia Zaccagni has been deemed to be in an offside position.
9
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
9
Update Update
Lorenzo Bernasconi of Atalanta commits a foul.
9
Update Update
VAR Review: Goal Disallowed for Lazio; Score Remains 0-0 Against Atalanta.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Atalanta. Davide Zappacosta has been flagged for being in an offside position.
8
Update Update
GOAL DISALLOWED AFTER VAR REVIEW: Nikola Krstovic of Atalanta finds the back of the net, but the goal is canceled following a VAR check.
7
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
7
Update Update
Match paused - Atalanta.
4
Update Update
Atalanta has been flagged for offside. Mario Pasalic has been ruled offside.
2
Update Update
Danilo Cataldi from Lazio is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
2
Update Update
Lazar Samardzic from Atalanta commits a foul.
1
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio commits a handball.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lazio exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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