Las Palmas vs Ceuta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de Gran Canaria Sun, 8 Mar - 1:00 PM
La Liga 2
Las Palmas LPA
4 Winner 0
Ceuta Ceuta
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 1:00 PM
Manu Fuster - 40'
Taisei Miyashiro - 55', 58'
Jonathan Viera - 69' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Las Palmas 4–0 Ceuta. The result saw Las Palmas take the points. Las Palmas showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Las Palmas showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Mallo Fernández
E. Mallo Fernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
S. García Aguilera
S. García Aguilera
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
M. Barroso Galán
M. Barroso Galán
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
G. Brull Acerete
G. Brull Acerete
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
VS
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cultural Leonesa Rank: W
Castellón Rank: D
Mirandés Rank: D
Burgos Rank: D
Real Sociedad II Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
Huesca Rank: L
Almería Rank: L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: W
Real Valladolid Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Las Palmas
57.39%
Draw
25.11%
Away Ceuta
17.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.43
49.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Las Palmas
Ceuta
Power Score
52.43
49.21
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Las Palmas Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.26
11.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.91
32.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Las Palmas +2.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Ceuta -2.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Ceuta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Las Palmas Ceuta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Las Palmas Ceuta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Ceuta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Las Palmas LPA Home
1 matches
Ceuta Ceuta Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:04:47+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de Gran Canaria
Capacity
32392
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
E. Mallo Fernández
Samuel García Aguilera
Marcos Barroso Galán
Gerard Brull Acerete

Statistics

Possession
LPA
53%
Ceuta
47%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 1
42 Dangerous attacks 32
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 7
1 Penalties 0
9 Goal Attempts 2
5 Goal Kicks 7
42 Ball Safe 45
20 Throwins 21
15 Dribble Attempts 19
5 Successful Dribbles 8
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

Attacking

102 Attacks 75

Possession

36 Long Passes 57
13 Key Passes 2
15 Successful Long Passes 29
369 Successful Passes 309
437 Passes 387
84 Successful Passes Percentage 80
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

Defensive

8 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 5
22 Tackles 14

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
12 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
7 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
81'
Event
Manu Sánchez → Kialy Abdoul Kone
9th Substitution
Event
Sandro Ramírez → Jesé
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Álex Suárez → Cristian Gutiérrez
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Ale García → Manu Fuster
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Nicolás Benedetti → Jonathan Viera
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Jonathan Viera
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
69'
Event
Juanma Herzog
Penalty awarded
67'
64'
Event
Ignacio Schor → Konrad de la Fuente
4th Substitution
Event
Kirian Rodríguez → Lorenzo Amatucci
3rd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
62'
Event
Yann Bodiger → Marino Illescas
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Aboubacar Bassinga → Youness Lachhab
1st Substitution
Event
Taisei Miyashiro
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
Event
Taisei Miyashiro
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
55'
1ST-HALF
Event
Manu Fuster
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
40'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Las Palmas exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga 2 View all league clusters