La Louvière vs Dender Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Tivoli Mon, 6 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
La Louvière RAAL
0 Winner 1
Dender DEN
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 1 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Alireza Jahanbakhsh - 68' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between La Louvière and Dender has officially finished with a 0-1 full-time scoreline in favour of the visitors. Following an evenly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, Dender managed to find the crucial breakthrough in the second period to secure the victory. The match concluded without any red cards, meaning both sides finished with their full starting numbers on the pitch. This away victory represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. La Louvière initially entered the fixture as the clear favourites, backed by a 49.4% implied probability of winning in the market, while a Dender win sat at just 23.1% (with a draw at 27.5%). Because Dender secured the upset, the final outcome was fundamentally not aligned with the pre-match market. In terms of match control, La Louvière enjoyed the majority of possession, holding 54% of the ball compared to Dender's 46%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final result aligned with the underlying chance creation metrics. Nevertheless, the overall efficiency shift for the match was evaluated to be in line with typical performance expectations, allowing Dender to efficiently turn their minority share of possession into a definitive away win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dender showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Van Driessche
B. Van Driessche
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Y. De Neve
Y. De Neve
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Q. Lesceux
Q. Lesceux
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
M. Allaerts
M. Allaerts
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
La Louvière F. Taquin
F. Taquin
VS
Dender Y. Ferrera
Y. Ferrera
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: 76 D
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Antwerp Rank: 69 D
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Mechelen Rank: 71 L
Anderlecht Rank: 72 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 71 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 84 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 D
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 L
OH Leuven Rank: 66 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home La Louvière
49.43%
Draw
27.52%
Away Dender
23.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57
61.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
La Louvière
Dender
Power Score
57
61.59
League Position
14
16
Global Rank
266
419

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
La Louvière — Opponent-weighted form score
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) La Louvière Dender

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

La Louvière

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dender
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.78
18.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.15
47.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
La Louvière +2.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Dender -2.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Dender
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dender
Created Set-piece attacking threat
La Louvière Dender
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
La Louvière Dender
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Dender
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
La Louvière
vs
Dender
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
La Louvière Dender
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
La Louvière 0.29
Dender 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
La Louvière Dender
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
La Louvière 0.04
Dender 0.00
La Louvière
Dender
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

La Louvière RAAL Home
2 matches
Dender DEN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Peano
Argentina
21 M. Peano
W. Faye
Senegal
4 W. Faye
Y. Okou
France
99 Y. Okou
D. Lamego
France
25 D. Lamego
D. Benavides Fuentes
Substitution
Spain
19 D. Benavides Fuentes
S. Lahssaini
Belgium
15 S. Lahssaini
S. Joel Ito
Substitution
Belgium
23 S. Joel Ito
N. Gillot
France
3 N. Gillot
M. Ashimeru
Substitution
Ghana
18 M. Ashimeru
J. Afriyie
22 J. Afriyie
P. Fall
Senegal
7 P. Fall
G. Gallon
France
93 G. Gallon
B. Goncalves
France
7 B. Goncalves
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
B. De Kerf
6 B. De Kerf
J. Sambu Mansoni
Substitution
Belgium
70 J. Sambu Mansoni
M. Viltard
Substitution
France
24 M. Viltard
N. Rodes
Belgium
18 N. Rodes
A. Jahanbakhsh
Substitution
Iran
27 A. Jahanbakhsh
N. Mbamba
Belgium
17 N. Mbamba
D. Hrnčár
Slovakia
20 D. Hrnčár
M. Berte
Substitution
Belgium
90 M. Berte

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Stade du Tivoli
Capacity
13500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bram Van Driessche
Yves De Neve
Quentin Lesceux
Michiel Allaerts

Statistics

Possession
RAAL
55%
DEN
45%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
6 Shots 2
76 Dangerous attacks 27
54 Possession 46
4 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Injuries 2
32 Throwins 21
10 Goal Attempts 7
63 Ball Safe 75
7 Dribble Attempts 6
0 Penalties 1
3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

122 Attacks 74

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 75
387 Passes 346
29 Long Passes 35
305 Successful Passes 256
12 Key Passes 4

Defensive

4 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 18

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

1 Offsides 4
8 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

21
Marcos Peano
Marcos Peano Goalkeeper
4
Wagane Faye
Wagane Faye Defender
25
Djibril Lamego
Djibril Lamego Defender
99
Yllan Okou
Yllan Okou Defender
3
Nolan Gillot
Nolan Gillot Midfielder
15
Sami Lahssaini
Sami Lahssaini Midfielder
19
Darío Benavides
Darío Benavides Midfielder
27
Nachon Nsingi
Nachon Nsingi
Attacker73'
23
Joël Ito
Joël Ito Midfielder
98
Owen Maës
Owen Maës
Midfielder46'
7
Pape Moussa Fall
Pape Moussa Fall Attacker
18
Majeed Ashimeru
Majeed Ashimeru Attacker
13
Maxence Maisonneuve
Maxence Maisonneuve
Defender73'
22
Jerry Afriyie
Jerry Afriyie Attacker
Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

93
Gauthier Gallon
Gauthier Gallon Goalkeeper
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Defender
6
Bo De Kerf
Bo De Kerf Defender
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu Defender
45
Amine Daali
Amine Daali
Midfielder62'
17
Noah Mbamba
Noah Mbamba Midfielder
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes Midfielder
20
David Hrncar
David Hrncar Midfielder
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
21
Kobe Cools
Kobe Cools
Defender79'
27
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Alireza Jahanbakhsh Midfielder
23
Desmond Acquah
Desmond Acquah
Midfielder87'
90
Mohamed Berte
Mohamed Berte Attacker
9
David Toševski
David Toševski
Attacker62'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
David Toševski
7th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Desmond Acquah → Alireza Jahanbakhsh
7th Substitution
Event
5th Yellowcard
83'
83'
Event
6th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Kobe Cools → Malcolm Viltard
6th Substitution
Event
Maxence Maisonneuve → Majeed Ashimeru
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Nachon Nsingi → Darío Benavides
5th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Penalty / 1st Penalty
Event
Yllan Okou
4th Yellowcard
65'
62'
Event
Amine Daali → Marsoni Sambu
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
David Toševski → Mohamed Berte
3rd Substitution
Event
Owen Maës → Joël Ito
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Marsoni Sambu
3rd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Bo De Kerf
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Joël Ito
1st Yellowcard
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dender exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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