Krylya Sovetov vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Samara Arena Sat, 11 Apr - 11:00 AM
Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
2 – 2
Akhmat Grozny AKH
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 24 Regular Season
A. Rahmanović - 4'
Nikita Chernov - 70'
Goal
|
Goal
Georgiy Melkadze - 10'
Egas Cacintura - 40' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Krylya Sovetov and Akhmat Grozny is finished, with Krylya Sovetov winning 2-0 at full time. Pre-match assessments identified Akhmat Grozny as the stronger team, yet the result delivered a significant deviation in favor of Krylya Sovetov. This outcome diverged sharply from pre-match expectations, as the home side secured a convincing victory despite not being tipped to dominate. Krylya Sovetov also held a clear territorial edge, recording 61 percent possession to Akhmat Grozny’s 39 percent, though expected goals data was unavailable for further context. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the overall pattern of play, and no red cards were issued to either side to alter the balance. While the final score did not align with the pre-match projection that favored the visitors, it reflected a determined second-half adjustment by Krylya Sovetov that proved decisive.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krylya Sovetov showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Y. Bobrovskiy
Y. Bobrovskiy
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
K. Bolshakov
K. Bolshakov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
A. Lapatukhin
A. Lapatukhin
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
K. Bolshakov
K. Bolshakov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
Krylya Sovetov S. Bulatov
S. Bulatov
VS
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
0.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Akron Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 6 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Krylya Sovetov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akhmat Grozny
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.47
24.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
Power Score
14.47
24.99
League Position
13
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.26
32.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.82
19.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krylya Sovetov -1.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Akhmat Grozny +1.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Krylya Sovetov
vs
Akhmat Grozny
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Krylya Sovetov 0.16
Akhmat Grozny 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Krylya Sovetov 0.06
Akhmat Grozny 0.04
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Krylya Sovetov had peak pressure around 89'.
  • AKH started the game with stronger pressure.
Krylya Sovetov Pressure AKH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Krylya Sovetov reached the top pressure at 89' (78.38).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Home
33 matches
Akhmat Grozny AKH Away
Match Record
9
Wins
18
6
Draws
6
18
Losses
9
Goals
35
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
35
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:01:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 S. Pesyakov
F. Peixoto Costanza
Brazil
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
N. Chernov
Russia
23 N. Chernov
S. Bozhin
Russia
47 S. Bozhin
N. Rasskazov
Russia
15 N. Rasskazov
S. Babkin
Substitution
Russia
6 S. Babkin
M. Vityugov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Vityugov
K. Pechenin
Belarus
2 K. Pechenin
A. Rahmanović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Rahmanović
I. Oleynikov
Substitution
Russia
19 I. Oleynikov
J. Marín
Substitution
Costa Rica
26 J. Marín
V. Uljanov
Russia
1 V. Uljanov
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Zare Mohazabieh
22 M. Zare Mohazabieh
D. Khlusevich
Russia
82 D. Khlusevich
P. Gadio
Substitution
Senegal
37 P. Gadio
S. Pryakhin
Russia
19 S. Pryakhin
L. Sadulaev
Substitution
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
M. Samorodov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
G. Melkadze
Substitution
Russia
77 G. Melkadze

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Samara Arena
Capacity
44918
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yan Bobrovskiy
Kirill Bolshakov
Aleksey Lapatukhin
Kirill Bolshakov

Statistics

Possession
Krylya Sovetov
57%
AKH
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 36
61 Possession 39
11 Corners 4
18 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 17
23 Throwins 19
14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
2 Assists 1
7 Goal Kicks 5
8 Successful Headers 7
2 Successful Dribbles 9
0 Penalties 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Injuries 1
86 Ball Safe 86
7 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

107 Attacks 88
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 77
31 Successful Long Passes 22
482 Passes 311
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
404 Successful Passes 240
54 Long Passes 54

Defensive

1 Saves 4
16 Interceptions 15
17 Tackles 29

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5
20 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

12 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Yan Bobrovskiy

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov Goalkeeper
22
Fernando Costanza
Fernando Costanza Defender
23
Nikita Chernov
Nikita Chernov Defender
47
Sergey Bozhin
Sergey Bozhin Defender
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin Midfielder
6
S. Babkin
S. Babkin Midfielder
14
Mihajlo Banjac
Mihajlo Banjac
Midfielder46'
8
M. Vityugov
M. Vityugov Midfielder
70
Artem Shumansky
Artem Shumansky
Attacker81'
15
N. Rasskazov
N. Rasskazov Midfielder
11
A. Rahmanović
A. Rahmanović Attacker
91
V. Ignatenko
V. Ignatenko
Attacker81'
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov Attacker
10
Vladimir Khubulov
Vladimir Khubulov
Midfielder88'
26
Jimmy Marín
Jimmy Marín Attacker
77
I. Akhmetov
I. Akhmetov
Midfielder65'
Referee : Yan Bobrovskiy

Starting XI ▼

1
Vadim Ulyanov
Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
22
Mohammadmehdi Zare
Mohammadmehdi Zare Defender
82
Daniil Khlusevich
Daniil Khlusevich Defender
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
4
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Defender82'
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
19
S. Pryakhin
S. Pryakhin Midfielder
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker62'
37
P. Gadio
P. Gadio Midfielder
23
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder75'
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
13
Mohamed Konaté
Mohamed Konaté
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Vladimir Khubulov → I. Oleynikov
9th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Turpal-Ali Ibishev → Lechi Sadulaev
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Mohamed Konaté → Georgiy Melkadze
8th Substitution
Event
V. Ignatenko → A. Rahmanović
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Artem Shumansky → M. Vityugov
6th Substitution
81'
75'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → P. Gadio
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Lechi Sadulaev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Nikita Chernov
Header / 3rd Goal
70'
Event
I. Oleynikov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
I. Akhmetov → Jimmy Marín
3rd Substitution
65'
62'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Maksim Samorodov
2nd Substitution
Event
Mihajlo Banjac → S. Babkin
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kirill Pechenin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
45+3'
Event
Maksim Samorodov
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
Event
Egas Cacintura
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
39'
Event
Georgiy Melkadze
Penalty awarded
Event
S. Babkin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
10'
Event
Georgiy Melkadze
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
A. Rahmanović
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Krylya Sovetov exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League View all league clusters